电动汽车战略回顾(英文)

OilPrice2013-$105/barrel2040-$163/barrel1barrel=159litresCO₂emission2013–about30GTCO₂2050–almost60GTCO₂2Source:U.SEnergyInformationAdministration,2013Source:InternationalEnergyAgency,20133KeyEvents1910s–FordproducedModelT,gascarpricedat$500/unit1970s–Oilcrisis,ArabcountriesimposedoilembargoonUS1996–GMlaunchedEV1,NickelHydrogenbasedbattery2000s–Highoilprice,climatechange,betterLithiumbasedbatteryClusterDynamicsLatecomerStrategyGeographicconcentrationsofinterconnectedcompanies,specialisedsuppliers,serviceproviders,andassociatedinstitutionsinaparticularfieldthatarepresentinanationorregion.(Porter,1998)Latecomerfirms/nationsareabletoexploittheirlatearrivaltotapintoadvancedtechnologies,ratherthanhavingtoreplicatetheentireprevioustechnologicaltrajectory.ResourceLeverage,LinkageandLearningarethekeys(Mathews,2006)45GeneralMotors•BasedinDetroit’sautomobilecluster•Successwereduetouniqueeconomiesofscaleincluding:•accelerationofR&Dwithincluster(steel,machine,andship)•concentrationofskilledlabour(peakedduringFordModelTproduction)•supplychainsefficiencies(abundantofsupplieswithincluster)•governmentinvestment(inreturn↑taxes,↑employment)•MarketCapitalisationof$51billion(GoogleFinance,Nov2013)GreeningGoliathFromBurdentoOpportunities1990CaliforniaZEV(ZeroEmissionVehicle)mandaterequiringcarmanufacturerstoproduceZEV.GMandToyotachallengedthemandateincourt,astheresultmandatewasamendedin2001toproduceloweremissionvehicles.2013EV1projectcancelled,carsdestroyed.Betterbatterytechnology(Lithiumbased)andcontinuousgovernmentinterventions(LEVmandate,taxcredits)andhighoilpriceincreaseddemandforEV(HEV,PHEV,andBEV).TheEVmarketisnowviewedasacommercialopportunityinsteadofregulatoryburden.6DoestheinterplaybetweentheGreeningGoliathGMandEmergingDavids,TeslaandBYDhelpthesustainabilityoftheEVindustry?7BackgroundFoundedin2003byMartinEberhard,MarcTarpenning,ElonMusk,JBStraubel&IanWright,withtheobjectiveofcreatinganeffective&appealingelectriccar*OnlymanufacturesBatteryElectricVehicles(BEV)&relatedcomponentsHQ&manufacturingplantbasedinSiliconValley;assemblyplantNetherlands3,000+employees;facilitiesin31countries;Teslavehiclesonroadin37countriesProducts:Roadster(ceasedproductionJan.2012),ModelS,ModelX(2014)FinancialListedonNASDAQ29thJune2010MarketCapitalisationUSD18.36billionat$151.16pershare(6/11/13)(yahoo!7finance)2013Q3Results(2012):Rev$603m($553m);NetLoss$38.5m(-$110.8m);NetIncomeminusex-items$15.9m(-$97.1m)(CNBC.com)Unitsales2013(f):21,500(2,650)Source:TeslaInvestorPresentation2013Source:TeslaInvestorPresentation2013LatecomerElementsACPropulsionpowertrain,usedunderlicenceinoriginalRoadster.OrEarlyMover?Lotusconsultancyvehicledesign,chassis&bodymanufacture/assembly(“gliders”)Selectionoflithiumion18650batterycellsasdominanttechnologyforEV-criticalLinkage,butinverse.TeslanotVCsupplierBoththeACPropulsion&LotusrelationshipsprovidedTeslawithorganisationallearning&opportunitiestotechnologicallyleapfrog(differentdegrees)theincumbents.GerschenkronstrategicperspectiveTeslahascaughtupwithincumbentsGivennovelty&nicheofEVmarket,applicationofLatecomerframework-weakResourceLeverageInternalisingKnowledgefromLotus&ACPropulsionNUMMIManufacturingPlantSkilledWorkforce-selectivehiringChargingStationNetworksSignificantKeyPartnershipsCombinedwithKeyResources:IntellectualProperty,ExistingHumanCapital,TeslaInnovationCulture5millionft²onover200+acres400,000+unitcapacity(21,500in2013)Pricepaid$42millionPurchasedusedmachinery&equipmentata“fractionoforiginalcost”Estimatedtohavespentlessthan⅓ofthe$1billionaveragetobuildanewautoplant3,000specialistworkforce&160robotsCurrentlyuseonly~20%ofNUMMI–roomforgrowthNUMMIPlantFremontConcentratingstrategicintentAccumulatingefficientlearningComplementingblendingXvalueConservingrecycle,co-operateRecoveringmorequicklynowLeveragingStrategicPartnershipsCompanyDaimlerAGToyotaMotorsPanasonicCommenced200820102010Shareholder*YYYTeslaDevelop/producebatterypack&chargerfor:Smartfortwo;A-Class;B-Class;&FreightlinerVans.Develop&manufacturefullelectricpowertrainforRAV4through2014.n/aTeslaEIPAgreementforstrategiccollaborationinelectricpowertrains,engineeringsupport,EVdevelopment&accesstocomponentpartsforTesla.Toyotatosupportsourcingparts&provideproduction&engineeringexpertiseforModelS.Panasonic1of2batterysuppliersforTesla.Newdealtosupply~2billionbatterycellsovernext4years.OtherEIPApreventsTeslafromsupplyingorlicencingDaimlercompetitor,unlessDaimleroffered1strefusaltolicencenon-exclusively.n/an/aSustainable,Convenient&FREE!FastChargeCapability,upto150miles(230kms)in20minutesCaliforniaCleanVehicleClusterManufactureComponents•Batteries•Powertrain•Gearbox•Electronics•Brakes•OtherVehicleType•BEV•PHEV•Hybrid•Trucks•Tractors•Bikes,etcRawMaterialsChargingInfrastructureSkilled/SpecialisedHumanCapitalGovernment•Federal•State•LocalIndustryGroups&SupportProfessional•Accts•Lawyers•Consultants•PatentAtt.Financial•VentureCap•Banks•Investors•EntrepreneursDesign&EngineeringResearch&Development•Innovationcentres•Laboratories•Testing•PrototypeEducation•Uni