伦敦城市弹性——全球城市的适应性治理

UrbanizationandDivisionLondon’sGrowthasOpportunitiesandThreatsProfessorMarkTewdwr-JonesLondon:TheGrowingCity•PopulationLondongrewby1millionpeoplebetween2001and2011,nearlytwiceasfastasthewholeofEnglandandWales•Jobs427,000newjobswerecreatedinLondonbetween2005and2013•WagesAveragepayinLondonis30percenthigherthanintherestoftheUK•OutputDespitetherecession,GVAperheadinLondongrewby5.6percentin2007-2011•HousingAveragehousepricesinLondon(£408,000)arecurrently12timesaverageLondonsalaries,anincreaseof20%since2008•PovertyIn20122.14millionpeoplewereinpovertyinLondonandincomesaremoreunequalthaninanyotherregion•CongestionUseofpublictransportincreasingmorethaninvestmentinnewtransportroutes•Commuting2001-201110%increaseincommutingintoLondonfromoutside,58%increaseinreversecommutingoutofLondon•SpatialimpactsLondon’sboundariesareanillusionandthecityreliesonpolycentricdevelopmentintheGreaterSouthEastregionPolicyresponses•“Rebalancing”•ProtectingLondon’scontinuedsuccess•Identifyingneweconomicsectors•HighSpeedRailandcitytocitylinks•RegionalismtoLocalism•RelationshiptorestofUKLocalismandNeighbourhoodPlanning•‘…weneedaplanningsystemthatenableslocalpeopletoshapetheirsurroundingsinawaythat…isalsosensitivetothehistoryandcharacterofagivenlocation.’•‘Ourconceptionoflocalplanningisrootedincivicengagementandcollaborativedemocracyasthemeansofreconcilingeconomicdevelopmentwithqualityoflife...theplanningsystemcanplayamajorroleindecentralisingpowerandstrengtheningsociety.’PressuresforeconomicgrowthLondon’sfuture–potentialthreatsThreatstocompetitivenessWorklessnessandskillsRespondingtoclimatechangeQualityofLifeSomescenariosforthefutureofthecity•Businessasusual?Nearingcollapse?•Amorepolarisedcity,unlikeanyotherpartoftheUK•Businessinterestsincreasinglydrivingagendaswithpoliticiansreactive•Housingneedwillcreateadifferenthousingsystem•Communitiesgalvaniseandprotectthemselves?•ButLondon’ssphereofinfluencewillcontinuetocreatepressuresontheGreaterSouthEast+,withorwithoutplanningagreementorwiderpoliticalsupport•WillLondonprotectitself?•UKleavesEU;Scotlandgrantedindependence•LondonbecomesmoredifferentiatedfromEnglandwithpoliticalcallstoattaincitystatestatusBridgingthegap•Therearepotentialnewrelationshipstoforgebetweenpolicymakerswithinregionandinandbetweenthecityregions,andtheresearchcommunities,toassistinmeetingtheselongtermchallengesin:•generatingnewknowledgeandmethodsofmodellingchangepresentlyandoverthenextfewdecades;•thinkingofLondon’sassetsthroughasystemsapproachanddevelopingscenariosforlongtermresilience;and•assessingchangingbehaviourofpolicymakers,businessleadersandcitizens.Whatformofgovernance?•Thespiritleveltest:centralism,regionalism,federalism,localism•Mixesofgovernancestylesandownership•Purposeandpermeabilityofgovernance•Movingawayfromonestylefitsallapproach•Ongoingtranslationissuesbetweenexistinggovernmentstructuresandnewstyles•Threatsofincreasingpolicyturbulence•Theboundariesandterritorialconstraintsofpolicies