高盛高华(英文)农产品最新分析：种植面积缩水、弃耕、收成因素令美国

2011年6月14日全球农产品最新分析研究报告种植面积缩水、弃耕、收成因素令美国产量预测下调鉴于今年春季恶劣的天气条件，我们下调了美国玉米种植面积预测。然而新玉米价格令农民种植意愿异常高涨，这使得我们的玉米种植面积预测高于美国农业部，而大豆的种植面积预测低于农业部。但天气对于弃耕率和收成的影响又令我们的产量预测低于农业部。恶劣天气大大延误了今年美国的春播尽管今春种植面积赶超纪录的经济动力十足，但恶劣的天气令美国农作物的耕种大受影响：湿冷的天气延误了玉米种植带的部分播种，而密西西比河以及密苏里河的洪水又损毁了已有庄稼。因此美国农业部在6月份的全球农产品供需预测报告中以超出常规的幅度削减了玉米和春小麦的种植面积预测。然而，新作物价格为补种提供了强大动力，尤其是玉米我们在6月30日的种植面积报告出炉之前更新了我们的种植面积预测，其中下调了大部分农作物的种植面积预测。但新玉米价格的强劲势头提供了异常高的回报，我们认为农场主可能因此而：(1)补种玉米而不是放弃播种并索赔；(2)对播种被延误时将玉米转种大豆的通常做法加以限制。有鉴于此，我们预计的玉米种植面积减幅要小于农业部6月份的全球农产品供需预测报告，此外我们预计的大豆种植面积也低于农业部。但是考虑到播种推迟、天气不利和洪水的负面影响，我们下调了收成预测并上调了弃耕率预测，因此我们的产量预测低于农业部。未来天气因素仍十分关键，但潜在下降的产量将支撑玉米和大豆价格尽管7－9月份是决定产量高低的关键时期，但我们更新的预测更加强了我们关于农作物价格将持续上扬的预期。我们仍预计玉米和大豆价格将上涨，而小麦和棉花价格将呈震荡走势。DamienCourvalin(212)[e-mail]高盛集团AllisonF.Nathan(212)[e-mail]高盛集团高盛集团与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。关于重要的信息披露，请参阅信息披露之前的部分或登陆或请与您的投资代表联系。高盛集团高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究2011年6月14日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究2HedgingandtradingrecommendationsHedgingrecommendationsConsumers:Ourexpectationoffurthercornandsoybeanpriceupsideandthebackwardatedfuturescurveofferopportunitiesforconsumerstolayerinupsideprotection.Aftertherecentdeclineincottonprices,werecommendconsumerslayerinasymmetricupsidehedgesfor2012maturitiesasanyweatherdisappointmentwilllikelysendpricessharplyhigher.Producers:Ourexpectationforwheatpricesbelowthecurrentforwardcurveoverthemediumtermpointstoopportunitiesforproducerstotakeadvantageofthecurrenthigherlevelsandimplementlong-datedhedgeprograms.TradingrecommendationsLongsoybeans:BuyNovember2011CBOTsoybeansWerecommendholdinglongNov-11soybeanpositionsasweseesoybeansaslikelytoremaininadeficitin2011/12onstrongdemandandacreagelosstocornandcotton.CurrenttradingrecommendationsSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.ShortUSNaturalGasSellOctober2011NYMEXNaturalGasJune12,2011-NaturalGasWeekly$4.84/mmBtu$4.73/mmBtu$0.11/mmBtuLongBrentCrudeOilBuyDecember2012ICEBrentCrudeOilMay23,2011-EnergyWatch$105.16/bbl$113.44/bbl$8.28/bblLongCopperBuyJune2012LMECopperMay23,2011-CommodityWatch$8,804/mt$8,921/mt$117/mtLongZincBuyDecember2012LMEZincMay23,2011-CommodityWatch$2,189/mt$2,316/mt$127/mtLongUKNaturalGasBuyQ42012ICEUKNBPNaturalGasApril26,2011-NaturalGasWeekly70.8p/th74.0p/th3.3p/thLongSoybeansBuyNovember2011CBOTSoybeanNovember18,2010-AgricultureUpdate$11.60/bu$13.77/bu$2.17/buLongGoldBuyDecember2011COMEXGoldOctober11,2010-PreciousMetals$1,364.2/toz$1,518.0/toz$153.8/toz¹AsofcloseonJune13,2011.Inclusiveofallpreviousrollingprofits/losses.Currentprofit/(loss)1CurrenttradesFirstrecommendedInitialvalueCurrentValue2011年6月14日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究3Priceactions,volatilitiesandforecastsunits12JunChangeImplied2ChangeRealized2Change4Q091Q102Q103Q104Q101Q113m6m12mEnergy0.325.80-0.050.180.560.52IndustrialMetals44208-1700113PreciousMetals224.9Agriculture5942106-5-9-384.3-7.1-2.51Monthlychangeisdifferenceofcloseonlastbusinessdayandcloseamonthago.2Monthlyvolatilitychangeisdifferenceofaveragevolatilityoverthepastmonthandthatofthepriormonth(3-moATMimpliedvolatility,1-morealizedvolatility).3Priceforecastsrefertopromptcontractpriceforecastsin3-,6-,and12-monthstime.4BasedonLMEthreemonthprices.2.953.352.002.222.112.172.682.893.6541.5-7.41.94RBOBGasoline$/gal3.0231.5130.00BrentCrudeOil$/bbl118.7832.31.1422.8-21.875.5477.37117.00120.0078.0576.2179.4176.9687.45105.52HistoricalPrices76.1378.88-15.6126.5085.2494.60111.00115.00Volatilities(%)andmonthlychanges2Pricesandmonthlychanges1WTICrudeOil$/bblPriceForecasts399.2932.21.4432.62.2026.6-13.91.944.004.254.203.752.012.072.012.313.263.48NYMEXNat.Gas$/mmBtu4.7635.12.783.12USGCHeatingOil$/gal3.0729.54.233.980.3436.3-1.64.93-4.2510.8-14.231.834.994.35275029002531270033.3537.4842.6851.7485.1080.10LMEAluminum$/mt261923.756.7766.90UKNBPNat.Gasp/th58.2422.4211023651.5823.10.620371.5225.3-0.7667721992122240002300026926240007274704272788614960011000LMENickel$/mt2285035.396299300LMECopper$/mt893828.521271236191.3733.8-5.9175931.1728.70.2224120163224311565169013881480230720522043233324002700LondonGold$/troyoz152916.724142400LMEZinc$/mt225533.0122813700.0810.2-5.610990.7488.4-17.017.61110119783583578680016.918.319.026.426.128.2CBOTWheatcent/bu75937.731.924.7LondonSilver$/troyoz37.443.36537070.2951.52.8522-0.3616.2-6.310024964677807006708009559571035124514751475CBOTCorncent/bu78736.513791400CBOTSoybeancent/bu138726.2422562-2.0037.8-3.3386n/a44.05.071370355200175257235768187128125125NYBOTCoffeecent/lb265n/a179150NYBOTCottoncent/lb140n/a174205n/a30.72.3139n/a23.1-11.2325913414020.020.030.525.0307029872863285627002700NYBOTSugarcent/lb25.634.033072700NYBOTCocoa$/mt2997n/a20.229.01.2344.02.023.6n/a19.0-0.883.624.415.5105.095.086.295.090.593.795.0100.5115.0120.0CMELeanHogcent/lb91.7n/a111.295.0CMELiveCattlecent/lb102.7n/a69.781.979.771.2n/a19.4-11.357.8Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.2011年6月14日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究4Hittoacreage,abandonment,yieldlowersUSproductionoutlookWhilethefinancialincentiveforUSfarmerstoachieverecord-largeac