Use-of-National-Surveys-For-Estimating-“Full”-PHEV

UseofNationalSurveysForEstimating“Full”PHEVPotentialForOilUseReductionAnantVyasandDanSantiniCenterForTransportationResearchArgonneNationalLaboratorySponsors:T.Duong,TeamLeader,HybridandElectricSystems;PhilPatterson,Economist,OfficeofVehicleTechnologies,U.S,DOEPresentedatthePLUG-IN2008ConferenceheldattheMcEneryConventionCenter,SanJose,California,July21-24,2008ThesubmittedpresentationhasbeencreatedbyUChicagoArgonne,LLC,OperatorofArgonneNationalLaboratory(Argonne).Argonne,aU.S.DepartmentofEnergyOfficeofSciencelaboratory,isoperatedunderContractNo.DE-AC02-06CH11357.TheU.S.Governmentretainsforitself,andothersactingonitsbehalf,apaid-upnonexclusive,irrevocableworldwidelicenseinsaidpresentationtoreproduce,preparederivativeworks,distributecopiestothepublic,andperformpubliclyanddisplaypublicly,byoronbehalfoftheGovernment.TwoSurveysWereUsedForEstimating“Full”PHEV*PotentialForOilUseReduction1.2001NationalHouseholdTravelSurvey(NHTS)™Covered69,817households™One-daytraveldatacovered642,292persontripsofwhich387,431werebyvehicledrivers™Useabledatacovered84,916vehiclesmaking366,084trips2.2005AmericanHousingsurvey(AHS)™Covered56,650interviewsrelatingto124.4millionhousingunitsofwhich108.9millionwereoccupied™64.3%oftheoccupiedhousingunitsaredetachedsingleunits,80.1%ofthosewithagarageorcarport™51.2%ofdetachedsingleunitsareinMSAsuburbs,83.5%withagarageorcarport2*Atheoretical“full”PHEVisonecapableofallelectricoperationatanyspeedNHTS2001Shows43.5%VehiclesAreDriven=20Miles/Dayand83.7%Driven=60Miles3NHTS2001DailyVMTPatternshows11.4%byThoseTraveling=20Milesand48.2%for=60Miles4NHTS2001AfteranOvernightChargeAllPHEVsCanTravelFirstSeveralMilesoftheDayOnGridElectricityDailyTravelRangeofVehicleVMTShareinNHTS20011charge/day-%“electric”VMTbyEVorPHEVType(Black=EVorPHEV,Red=PHEVonly)10EVmiles20EVmiles30EVmiles40EVmiles60EVmilesUpto10Miles3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%10.01-20Miles8.1%5.3%8.1%8.1%8.1%8.1%20.01-30Miles10.0%3.9%7.9%10.0%10.0%10.0%30.01-40Miles10.0%2.8%5.7%8.5%10.0%10.0%40.01-60Miles16.8%3.4%6.7%10.1%13.5%16.8%Over60Miles51.8%4.5%8.9%13.4%17.9%26.7%PHEVSum100.0%23.2%40.6%53.4%62.8%74.9%5Assumesonechargeperday,100%marketpenetrationofonlythespecifiedEVorPHEVtechnology,and100%EVCDmodeuntilbatterydepletion(notblendedchargedepletion).BlendedchargedepletionrequiresmoremilestouseagivenamountofkWhfromthegrid.1Charge/day“Full”PHEVsCanConvert~40%ofVMTif~20-Mi.ElectricRange,~75%if~60-Mi.6NHTS2001PHEVCostEffectivenessDependsOnItsIncrementalCostandRangevs.CustomerUse7CostEffectiveness-PHEVvs.BaseHEVDieselbecomescompetitiveatlongdistanceIfOnlyOneChargeDepletionRangeWereChosenforPHEVR&D,~20-30Mi.SeemsBest8NHTS2001CostEffectiveness–SelectingtheRightRange–WouldDetermineSinglePHEVDesignOilReductionPotential9NHTS2001ChangingAssumptionsChangesAnswers–WhatAboutMultipleChargesperDay?•AnattractivefeatureforPHEVsisexcesselectriccapacityforovernightcharging•Whichislessexpensive,moremarketable?•Morebatterycapacitywithfaster(?)athomechargingonce/night,perhapscircuitupgrades•Lessbatterycapacity,butmorethan1chargeperdayThetopicisunderstudy.Initialinvestigationsofnon-homechargingpatternsbytriptypefollow.10Night“Troughs”inUtilityLoadareAvailabletoPHEVsAllYear.SummerAfternoonPeaksMustbeAvoidedIllinoisUtilityTypicalHourlyLoads,bySeason11Source:Cirilloetal.,2006,ArgonneNationalLaboratoryElectricRateStructuresCanDiscourage/PromoteChargingbyHour,Day,and/orSeasonSource:ElectricalServiceOptionsforResidentialCustomerEV&PHEVUsers.S.Thesen,CARBZEVSymposium,SacramentoCA,Sept.26,2006PacificGasandElectricsummerrateblocksasafunctionoftimeandday12EarlyStarts&LongDwellTimesAtWorkMakeRechargingBeforeAfternoonPeaksPossible13NHTS2001DwelltimefollowingthelasttripisexcludedWorkweekAfternoonHomeRechargingMayClashWithUtilities’SummerPeakDemand14NHTS2001DwelltimefollowingthelasttripisexcludedTheNeededMatchofGaragesandPHEVsforEasyChargingwillConstrain&DefinetheMarket•ResidentsofdetachedsingleunitswithgarageorcarportaremostlikelytobuyPHEVs•TheSouthRegionhasmoredetachedsingleunits•ThehighestproportionofdetachedsingleunitsareinMSAsuburbs,mostwithagarageorcarport•Detachedsinglehomeresidentsoflowpopulationdensityareasdrivemostvehicles•Aspopulationdensitydecreases•themixofvehiclesshiftsfromcarstowardtrucks•dailymilespervehicleincrease15SouthRegion(StretchingfromDelawaretoTexas)HasMoreDetachedSingleUnits16AHS2005AMajorityofDetachedSingleUnitsAreinMSASuburbs,MostWithGarageorCarport17AHS2005SingleHomeResidentsofLowPopulationDensityAreasDriveMoreVehicles18NHTS200119DailyMilesperVehicleGeographicallyVary,IncreasingAsPopulationDensityDecreasesNHTS2001APowertrainTechnologyMayTake20-40YrstoReachitsPotentialNewVehicleSalesShare20NewVehicleSalesSharePHEVsMayNotEverbeaUniversalPowertrain,andWillTakeTimetoReduceOilUse•Matchingwidelyvaryingcustomerdrivingtothe“right”PHEVelectricrangewithonlyafewPHEVdesignsischallenging•Multipleoff-peakchargesperdaywouldincreaseoilusereductionperPHEV,butnewcharginginfrastructurewouldbeneeded•Althoughwidelyavailable,garagesandcarportsforPHEVchargingarenoteverywhere•Evenwithtec