停车需求预测方法研究

32720067JOURNALOFBEUINGUNIVERSITYOFTECHNOLOGYVol32JulNo.72006,,(,100022):,.,t,,t,,,.:;;;;:U491:A.:02540037(2006)07060005.,;,,.,.,.,,.,,,,.11),,.,=ax(,=1,2,,,)j=1(1),yi;ij();Rij().2),,.3).,.4):20050906.:(1959),,,,.7:,,,,,.5)(),.(D),,,.,.,,[2.6),.,[2.7)GLogit,,,[3].8),,,4.9),.,,.[5],,.21,,.l).,.,.,.,,,()..2).,,.,,,()..3),.4).5).,,,.(),.()(),;,;,.20062.22.2.1,.,,,NaxRJlPXy(i=l,2,,n),p(p1,.xx1);y;;(2)py(),;,,.,.2.2.2,,.,,.1)p.,.p1,,;p1,,p=1,,.,p.2)yp.p,,y.,y.3).,,.,,61.,;,,,;,,..,)1;,.,1,;,,1.,,l;,1.2.2.3[3],.,,.,,,.l);,ij,R;,,,py1..7:2)R,,;,;,,xR10%(),.4py.3,,1.1tTab.IR,hultofthenumberOfparkingattractlngbyvousfaellltlesa(/100mZ)aoxR,”6n,,”b.1OR..1j.11.700.151.160.700.340.360.020.22R/mZ54004409880154505472083000709001318180299152900:R/,Roo.,1,2900.,p1.2,y90%,=80%,,1.zgooXlo%,xR1173(1200),xR,;,%Rii,;(2)yNax1PXyxx=569900(),900.,1200.,,.:11,.M.:.03.2],,.J].,1999,29():121126.CHENJun.WANGWei,YANKe-fei.Foreeastingresearehofurhanrngfaeilitiesdemand[J].Journalofsoutheastu-niversity,1999,29(Sulement):121126.(inChinese)3,.J]..01,1(3):212216.ANShi,wANGJian.Studyonrkingdemandforecastidmanagement[J].CommunieationandTransrtations-temsEngineeringandInformation,200,l(3):212216.(Chinese)4],.[Jl.,2002,35(3):125128.YANGzhonglia,PEIYulong.al15ofprt.ofandpredietionoffuturedemandonparkinglotswit}in6042006HarbinNo.2eirearroad[J].JournalofHarbinUversityofCiIEngineeriDgandehitecture,20()2,35(3):125128.(inChinese)5],,.J]..2004(4):6872.wENYa,YANKe-fei,CUIxi,tian.Imetnalysisoflargleparkonurhantraffie[Jl.uthanR~h,2(X)4(4):6872.(inChinese)6],,..TDM[J].,2006,32(4):338342.GUANHOnzhi,LlYang,QINHuan-mei,etal.5ontheTDMa,trimeregulationsurveyinmega115downtownAeasestudyon:eatit6p-mesbyparbp6d[J].JournalofBeijingUversityofTechno,20()6,32(4):338342.(inChinese)TheResearehonForecastingMethodforParkingDemandingGUANHongzhi,WANGXin,WANGXue(KeylratoryofTraffieEngineen,iUniversityofTechaology,Beijing100022,China)Abstract:Inordertoproperlyforeeasttheaetualdemandforparkiplaee,thepaperhasalsointroducedthemainmeth5offoreeastingthedemandatpresenttimeanditseharaeteristies.ThenitestablishestheparkidemandsupPlyforeeastimodelbasedonparkigenerationratemodel.Themodelconsiderstheprieeandparkiservieelevel5impactingonthenumberofparkidemand.Cnside6ngtheparkilot5turnoverrateandutilizationratiointhemodel,weeanknowhowmuehparkingseatsshouldbebuilt.Atthesame,thedemandforparkinghasbeenrespeetivelyestimateddurithedifferentperiodofdaytimeandnighttime.Atlast,itgivesaealeulatingexample.Keywosparkidemandforeeasti;turnoverrate;utilizationratio;priee;servieelevel