工程项目管理中不确定性与风险分析

X(,430081):,,:;;;;:C93-03:A:1672-0768(2004)03-0082-03?,,,,:;,,,,?,,5%90,80%,20%1:2820043JournalofShayangTeachersCollegeNo.32004X:2003-10-09:(1968),,2002,©1994-2006ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,,,,,,:,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,CIM,,AHP,,,CIM,AHP,,:,,,,,,,:,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2:,,,,,,,,,338©1994-2006ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[1].[M].():,2002.[2].[M].:,1989.(:)AnalysisofUncertaintyandRiskinEngineeringProjectManagementZHANGLing(WuhanUniversityofScience&Technology,Wuhan430081,China)Abstract:Thispaperanalyzesriskfactorsandriskeventsinaccordancewithriskdiscernment,riskestimationandriskassess2ment.Moreover,howtoselecttheappropriateriskcountermeasuresisdiscussedintermsofrealapplicationstoprojectmanagement.Keywords:Engineeringrisksheet;riskdiscernment;riskestimation;riskassessment;riskcountermeasure4820043JournalofShayangTeachersCollegeNo.32004©1994-2006ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.