混乱市场中的战略风险管理(1)

Dr.StefanBötzel,Dr.JohnLührsRolandRechtsteiner,Dr.MartinWittigTurningrisksintoopportunitiesStrategicriskmanagementinturbulentmarketsStudyWearealeadingandhighlyrespectedglobalstrategyconsultancythatdeliversprofessionalexcellenceWesupportourclientsinachievingsustainablecompetitiveedgethatleadstosuperiorgrowth,return,andshareholdervalueWedifferentiateourselvesbyourcompetenceandcreativity,combiningglobalperspectiveswithlocalsensitivityWeremainanindependentpartnership–fromaprofessionalandbusinesspointofviewWeattractandretainthebesttalentandworkwithopen,non-hierarchicalstructuresandapproachesCreativestrategiesthatworkStudyContentsExecutivesummary3StrategicriskmanagementenablescompaniestorespondfasterinturbulentmarketsResultsofasurveybyRolandBerger5CompaniesarebracingthemselvesforaboutofturbulenceTheRolandBergerapproach11StrategicriskmanagementenablescompaniestorespondfasterCasestudy13RiskmanagementasamanagementandcontrollingtoolfortopexecutivesLessonslearned24SuccessfactorsinimplementationWhotocontact262|Turningrisksintoopportunities3|3|ExecutivesummaryStrategicriskmanagementenablescompaniestorespondfasterinturbulentmarketsIncreasinglyfiercecompetition,attimesevenhypercompetition,andmorevolatilebusinesscycleshavebroughtgreaterturbulencetotheworld'smarkets.Forthebusinesscommunity,thisturbulenceexpressesitselfinshorterinnovationandproductioncycles,evergreaterproductdiversity,shorterplanninghorizons,andmoredeep-seateduncertaintyaboutstrategy.Turbulentmarketsmeanthatcompanieshavetoreacteverfastertotheopportunitiesandriskstheyface.Itfollowsthatprofessionalriskandopportunitymanagementisbecomingacrucialfactorofbusinesssuccess.Suchaboldstatementisbackedbyourexperienceinnumerousconsultingprojects–andbytheresultsofourrecentsurveyonhowcompaniesaredealingwithturbulence.73%ofrespondentmanagersadmittedthatgrowingvolatilityhadindeedhittheirbusinesseshardtomoderatelyhard.Theyalsoconfirmedthattherearethreeareasthathaveaparticularbearingonsuccessfulcorporatemanagementintimesofturbulenceandacuterisk:Movestoshoreupshort-termearningsandcorporatesurvivalAnactivepositioningwithinturbulentmarketsTheneedtoadapttheorganizationtotheturbulencearounditThemajorityofcompaniesappeartohavespottedtherisksandhavebeguntoadaptinresponsetothechangedsituation.Yetthegreaterrisksandopportunitiespresentedbyturbulentmarketsdemandmorethanjustareaction:theycryoutforproactive,strategicriskmanagement.RolandBerger'sapproachtostrategicriskmanagementmeetsthesechallengeshead-on.Wesitdownwithyoutoassesstherisksandopportunitiesspecifictoyourcompanyandworkwithyoutoformulatesuitableconceptsforprofessionalriskmanagement.Risksarequantifiedintermsoftheireffectonyourcashflow.AndtheindividualriskitemsforeachunitandforthecompanyasawholeareaggregatedusingMonteCarlosimulations.StudyTheresultsofastrategicriskmanagementprojectataglance:Atransparentoverviewofyourcompany'sentireriskpositionConcretemeasurestominimizeriskAprofessionalriskmanagementsystemtailoredtotheneedsofyourcompanyOurconsultingstrategyhasprovenitselfwhereitmattersmost:inpractice.Thebenefitsbegintotakeeffectinamatterofweeks.Whynotfindoutforyourself?4|ResultsofasurveybyRolandBerger:CompaniesarebracingthemselvesforaboutofturbulenceCrisisisaproductivestate–youonlyhavetotakeawaytheflavorofcatastrophe.MaxFrischTheheadlinesinthebusinesspresslamentonecorporatecrisisafteranother.Enron,Andersen,Kirch,WorldCom…andsothelistgoeson.Individualhumanfailureandmacroeconomicfactorshaveconspiredtoprecipitatethesespectacularimplosions.AndboththeneteconomycrisisandtheterroristattacksofSeptember11,2001,haveexacerbatedthedownturn.Yetthestructureofmarketshaschanged,too.Innovationcyclesandproductlifecyclesaregrowingevershorter.Atthesametime,anevergreaterdiversityofproductsisfloodingthemarket,witheverfasterdeliverytimes.Theresultantuncertaintieshaveabearingonstrategydevelopment.Therearetworeasonsforthisturbulence:Inmanyindustries,competitionhasbecomemuchmoreintenseasmoreandmoreinternationalplayerscrowdinandnewrivals,withdifferentbusinessmodelsfromdifferentindustries,alsomakeinroads.Businesscycleshavebecomemorevolatile.Regionaleconomicdevelopmentstodayhaveaglobalimpact.Conversely,theinternationalcapitalmarketsmagnifytheexpansionofregionalmarketsduringboomphases–andintensifytheircontractionwhenrecessionstrikes.Oursurveyofmanagersatover100companiesinawiderangeofindustriesreinforcesourconvictionthatthemarketshavebecomemorevolatileand,hence,morerisky.41%ofrespondentmanagerssaidtheircompanieswereoperatinginturbulentmarkets.Afurther32%ratedtheimpactontheircompanyasmoderate,while21%sawthemselvesasonlymildlyaffected.1)Turbulentmarketsmeanthatcompanieshavetoreacteverfastertotheopportunitiesandriskstheyface.Itfollowsthatprofessionalriskandopportunitymanagementisbecomingacrucialfactorofbusinesssuccess.Amidallthedoom-mongering,however,theopportunitiesshouldnotbeoverlooked.MarketshavebecometurbulentTurbulentmarketspresentrisks,butalsoopportunitiesTurningrisksintoopportunities5|1)DataderivedfromRolandBerger'scross-industrysurvey,early2002StudyTofind