我国汽车产业国际竞争力影响因素实证分析

(,411000):1990-2004,,,,;,:;;;:F4071471:A:1671-9743(2006)11-0050-05TheEmpiricalAnalysisofInternationalCompetitivenessontheInfluenceFactorsofChinapsAutomobileIndustryWUWen-hui(TheEconomyandTradeDepartmentofHunanUniversity,Changsha,Hunan411000)Abstract:Usingthedatafrom1990-2004andthroughthecreationofmultipleregressionmodel,thispapertestedtheimpacttheeconomiesofscale,thedegreeofindustrialconcentration,laborproductivityandtechnologicalleveldototheinternationalcompetitivenessofChinapsautomobileindustry.UsingthetestmethodoftheGrangerpscausesandeffect,theresultshowsthattheotherthreefactorsarepositivelyrelatedwiththeinternationalcompetitivenessofChinapsautomobileindustrybesidesthelaborproductivity.Theeconomiesofscale,thedegreeofindustrialconcentrationistheGrangercausesoftheautomobilecompetitivenessandthelaborproductivityandthetechnicallevelisnot.Keywords:industrialcompetitiveness;tradecompetitionindex;economiesofscale;degreeofindustrialconcentration:2006-10-22:(1970-),,,,,,,,,,GDP,,,,,,,,,,2004,,,,,,??,(2004)[1](P97-99),,(2004)[2](P64-69),2511Nov1251No111200611JOURNALOFHUAIHUAUNIVERSITYNov.2006(2005)[3](P81-83)(2005)[4](P12-15)(2005)[5](P63-73),,,,,,,11,,,[2]:1()011-55-1010-2020-40100(011)40%9%515%1175%1,01140,56125%,,,,60-100,400600,200,8602004,380,,117(),320,9,,21,,,,,,,,,,2004C454%,C4,431,,,,,,,,,41,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,152511:11,[6],,:(E-I)P(E+I)E,I,,,,,,,,,(1985=100)GDP,GDP,(E-I)P(E+I),,,,ASCILPRDRGDPER,(3),,,TC,,RGDP,,,;3ASCIERLPRDRGDPTCAS11000CI0151611000ER015130145411000LP01481014420144311000RD0133801408014210134011000RGDP019560166801684019250191411000TC-01619-01264-01232-01486-01593-0157311000:Eviews311,21,4TC=1+2AS+3CI+4LP+5RD+6ER+7RGDP+u(1),u252006114TC()TC()TC()TC()211641(010564)210888(010388)119642(010764)115181(011038)AS-116427(010001)-116176(010000)-117139(010000)-116261(010000)CI-010004(019830)-010006(019753)-010193(011267)-010272(010047)LP010002(010000)010002(010000)010002(010000)010002(010000)RD-012267(010687)-012142(010377)-012477(010496)-011975(010621)ER011151(012600)011257(011422)RGDP010001(018247)010003(013798)R2019450019446019349019287R2019038019139018987019002DW212414212544210221119870:P(1);RGDP,;ER,;RGDPER,,3P,R2019,R2019,;DW2,,,,ASLP,1%,,CIRGDP;RGDP,,CIER10%,CI;,ER,,RGDP,10%;,,1%,RD5%,,3,,,,:RGDP,RGDP,;,1993,,,,,,LP,ASCIRD,TC,,ASCIRD,TC,,,ASCIRD,,,LP,,,,LP,,,,,,,,,,,31,,Engle&Granger(1978)[7](P1057-1072)VARF,,,,ASCIRDTC,ADF,AIC5352511:5ADFADFADFTC-2180C,t,1-41893dTC-21020,0,1-119833AS-1197C,t,1-41893dAS-2129C,0,1-119833CI-2150C,t,1-41063dCI-11790,0,1-1163333LP-1197C,t,2-41893dLP-11910,0,1-1163RD-0146C,t,1-41893dRD-21830,0,1-217133:c,t,,;3333331%5%10%5,,I(1),ASCILPRDTC,:XYYYY,XY,XY:yt=p1i=1iyt-i+p2j=1jxt-j+ut(2)H01=2==p2=0,ytxtp1,p2H0,XtYt,XtYt56(H0)FPASdoesnotGrangerCauseTC11451179450102390CIdoesnotGrangerCauseTC11471772760101765LPdoesnotGrangerCauseTC11401355960156284RDdoesnotGrangerCauseTC114017757501492126,ASCITC,LPRDTC,,,,,,,,,,,,1163,,,,,;,C4,0102,,(),;,,:114,40,,,,,21,,,,:[1],.[J].,2004,(11).[2],.[J].,2004,(1).[3].[J].,2005,(4).[4].[J].,2005,(2).[5].[J].,2005,(8).[6].[M].:,1997.[7]EngleRF,GrangerCW.CointegrationandError-CorrectionRepresentation,EstimationandTesting.Econometrica,1987,(4).45200611