考虑多因素相互作用的基坑施工风险评价模型研究

摘要随着我国经济的飞速发展，多数城市正在修建或者即将修建地铁。但是由于地铁施工受到周围影响多，地铁隧道施工风险具有多样性和多层次性。应用网络分析法，对地铁隧道基坑施工过程中的成本风险、环境风险、失效风险等各方面展开系统的分析和研究。并在此基础上，对风险因素进行敏感性分析并提出相应的预防措施。本文采用网络分析法对基坑风险进行分析，首先将所有的风险因素归纳为施工工艺风险、施工作业风险、施工环境风险和基坑本体风险，每个分类都有六到七个风险因素，在此基础上对风险因素的相互影响关系确定，根据影响关系通过计算确定权重。权重确定后就可以对数据进行计算来得到结果。其结果有未加权超矩阵，加权超矩阵和极限超矩阵。根据目的在其中选择所需要的矩阵进行归纳分析得出结论。在结果中，未加权超矩阵反映了各个元素组内部及之间的相互影响关系，由此判断各元素组内的影响程度大小比较。加权超矩阵是把有限于子系统内部指标之间的影响作用置于整个系统当中统一进行考虑。加权超矩阵反映了各指标之间直接影响作用的排序。极限超矩阵和加权超矩阵一样都是考虑了子系统内部指标至于整个系统之中的影响，但极限超矩阵则是在考虑了各指标之间直接影响作用后再考虑其间接影响的一个总的影响程度大小比较。对计算结果进行分析，我们可以从中得出相应的结论。在基坑施工中对于基坑而言，对其影响最大的因素是什么，哪一类因素组对基坑的影响最大。借此我们可以针对性的提出预防和控制措施。关键词：基坑，风险因素，网络分析法，相对权重，施工期ABSTRACTWiththerapiddevelopmentofoureconomy,mostofthecityisbeingbuiltorwillbuildthesubway.Butbecausethesubwayconstructionbythesurroundinginfluence,subwaytunnelconstructionriskhasthediversityandmulti-level.Applicationofnetworkanalysismethod,analysisandStudyontheprocessofsystemofsubwaytunnelinfoundationpitconstructioncostrisk,environmentalrisk,theriskoffailureandotheraspects.Andonthisbasis,conductsensitivityanalysisoftheriskfactorsandpreventivemeasures.Thenetworkanalysismethodwasadoptedtoanalyzetheriskofexcavation,firstofallriskfactorsintorisk,constructiontechnology,constructionofenvironmentalriskandoperationalriskriskfoundationontology,eachcategoryhassixtosevenriskfactors,onthebasisofriskbecauseofthemutualeffectsbetweencalculatedanddeterminedaccordingtothedetermined,weighteffectrelationship.Weightscanthencalculatedresultsofdata.TheresultsareunweightedSuper-matrix,weightedsuper-matrixandultimatesupermatrix.Accordingtothematrixtoselecttheinductiveanalysisconcluded.Intheresult,theunweightedSuper-matrixreflectstheinteractionwithinthevariouselementsoftherelationshipbetweenthegroupand,thusdeterminethedegreeofeachelementinthegroup.TheweightedSuper-matrixislimitedtobetweeninternalindexsubsystemeffectinthewholesystemofunifiedconsideration.TheweightedSuper-matrixreflectstheindexbetweendirectinfluenceranking.ThelimitSuper-matrixandtheweightedSuper-matrixareconsideredtheeffectofinternalindexsystemforthewholesystem,butthelimitSuper-matrixisconsideringtoconsidereachindexbetweenthedirecteffectsoftheindirecteffectsofatotalimpactdegree.Analysisoftheresults,wecandrawthecorrespondingconclusionsfrom.Intheconstructionoffoundationpitforfoundationpit,thelargestimpactontheeffectofwhatis,whatkindoffactorsonthepitmaximum.Thuswecanputforwardpreventionandcontrolmeasures.Keywords:foundationditch,riskfactor,AnalyticNetworkProcess,relativeweight,constructionperiod目录第一章绪论...................................................................................................11.1选题背景..................................................................................................................11.1.1我国地铁发展概述.......................................................................................11.1.2武汉地铁概述................................................................................................11.1.3地铁基坑施工介绍........................................................................................31.2地铁基坑风险发展现状..........................................................................................31.3地铁基坑风险分析研究现状..................................................................................51.3.1故障树分析法...............................................................................................51.3.2实地调查法...................................................................................................51.3.3层次分析法...................................................................................................61.4本章小结..................................................................................................................7第二章ANP的理论基础与研究..................................................................82.1AHP概述.....................................................................................................................................82.2ANP的介绍...............................................................................................................................102.2.1结构原理.........................................................................................................................112.2.2优势度............................................................................................................................112.2.3超矩阵与加权超矩阵.....................................................................................................122.2.4元素权重的确定.............................................................................................................152.2.5ANP决策步骤.................................................................................................................162.3ANP的基本步骤及与AHP的比较研究..................................................................................172.3.1ANP模型确定权重的基本步骤.....................................................................................172.3.2ANP和AHP的定性比较..........................................................................................