后危机时代国际战略形势及其发展趋势

○[]2110，。“”，；，；，；、、。，、、、。[][]，、、、。[]D815[]A[]1006-6241(2010)02-0001-0620、、“”。2110“9·11”、“”。、。2110。、200830、“”。。。3.4%GDP50%15%。[1]1.7％20102114No.2,April2010Seq.No.114PeaceandDevelopment[1]、、、、、、，IMF200910《》，。1——“”、、BRICS“”VISTA、、、、200815.7%18%90％“”56％。[1]、、、。20096“”“”。G20。、。“”“”“”“”。IMF20091020092.7%GDP10%10%。4.2%、、4.4％、2.4％5.3％1010%。[2]5.3%5%。8.7%5.4%20103.5%1.5%。[3]200910、、、GDP2008GDP22.7%、8.1%、8.6%、8.2%25.6%、8.3%、9.6%、8.9%[4]GDP。。、。“”“”“”、、“”“”-。。、“”。[1]、、、、、、，IMF200910《》，[2]“Unemploymentrateupat8.8%inOctober2009”[EB/OL].[3]IMF200910《》，[4]IMF200810200910《》，://——[1]20106800[EB/OL].,[2009-10-30].[2]2009[EB/OL].,[2009-12-01].27《》“”“”。。。“”、。。“”。。。。、、、。、、、、、、。2009。。、、。。、。。2009。20095,85420087.5%20106,800[1]、“”、。2009941200827%《2020》。。[2]200926421%。202,26310%。。3——。“”7%6%。。5%3%。2009“2015”《》、《》。、。。“”。。2012205%。。“”“”“”[1]。。、“”、。“”、、。“”。、。、、、“”、“”、、、、。、、、、、、、、、、、、。、。“”。20092.75%、。。。[1][EB/OL].,=y.[2009-10-16].4——、。“”[1]。、、-。、、。“”2010“”。、。“”“”[2]、、。。。《》2010“1+10”。《》FTA。、、、“”355,000。“”“”20153。。。“”。。。“”“”、。。、“”。、、“”。2010“”“”“”40。。。。。《》。。[1][EB/OL].,[2009-11-16].[2][EB/OL].(),[2009-10-26].5——。“”“”。。“”“”2010。、、、、。“”。200920098.4％8.5％50%[1]2.3。“”、。、,“”“”、H1N1、、、。、、、。。“”“”“”。。“”。、、、。。。。[：2010-01-16][1]20091《》，8%，，。6——Abstracts1.InternationalStrategicSituationinthe“Post-crisisEra”andItsDevelopmentTrend,byGaoZugui,SeniorResearchFellowatChinaInstitutesofContemporaryInternationalStudies,andGuestResearcher,CPDS.ThePost-ColdWarinternationalsetupfeelsastrongurgeforchangeafterthefinancialandeconomiccrisissweepingacrosstheentireworld.WhiletheU.S.isstillthesoleworldsuperpowerintermsofitscomprehensivestrength,thegapbetweenthatoftheU.S.andthoseoftheotherbigpowersisnarrowingdown.Asbigpowersandpowergroupsarebusymakingstrategicalignmentsinprospectofamulti-polarworld,relationsbetweenandamongthemaregoingtotakeonanewlook.Competitionsbetweenandamongthemstillcarrytheday,andaregoingtobeevenmoreintenseinvariousfields.TheAsianPacificregionisgettingincreasinglytobeawhirlpoolofthisgreatchange.China’speaceanddevelopmentoverlapsandinterweaveswithaworldthatisinthemidstoftransformationandrealignment.2.OntheImpactsofFinancialCrisisontheU.S.,byShangHong,SeniorResearchFellowatChinaInstituteforInternationalStrategicStudies.TheglobalfinancialcrisisnotonlyinflictedaheavyblowstotheU.S.economy,butalsoprovokedabacklashfromalldirectionsagainstthehegemonicpositionofU.S.dollar,itspolitics,societyandforeignpolicy.Inordertotacklethecrisis,theObamaAdministrationhadtotakeaseriesofbailoutplans.However,thecurrentfinancialcrisishasinnowayshakenthehegemonicstatusoftheU.S.comprehensivestrength.Yet,thereisadireneedfortheU.S.toreinvigorateitseconomyandcreateasenseofcoherenceamongtheAmericanpeople.3.ImpactsoftheU.S.FinancialCrisisonChina’sEconomy,byZhangYanshengoftheInstituteforForeignEconomicStudies,NationalDevelopmentandReformCommission.TheU.S.financialcrisistookplaceinthecontextofcontemporaryglobalizationproceedingfromtradeandinvestmentliberalizationtofinancialandtechnologicalliberalization,whichmanifestsitselfmainlyinfinancialbubblesandalackofglobalgoverningstructure,withanoutcomeofglobaleconomicimbalancebroughtaboutbygreatimbalanceinNorth-Southdevelopment.China’seconomy,withabacklashfromglobalfinancialcrisis,hasbeenconsiderablyaffected.However,owingtoitstimelyresponsesandforcefulcounter-measures,itseconomywasthefirsttobeabletorecoverandregainabalancedandfastgrowth,makingcontributionstoglobaleconomicrecoveryaswell.Inthepost-crisisera,Chinaisstillrequiredtotakeappropriateactionstodealwithaseriesofconstraintfactors.4.NewTrendinGlobalEconomicRecessionandChina’sResponse,byZhengLiansheng,adoctoralstudentattheGraduateSchooloftheChinaAcademyofSocialSciences.Theadverseeffectsoftheglobalfinancialcrisishavespreadfarandwideinmanyways.Globalfinancialinstitutionswerehitheavilyandglobaltradesappedbyabigmargin.Uncertaintyofliquidassetsisgrowingandglobaleconomicstructureisabouttobeaffectedbyradicalchanges.AlthoughtheU.S.economyhasshownsignsofrecovery,developedcountriesasawholeareslowincomingbacktolifeintheireconomies.Theemergingeconomieskeepthemomentumofeconomicgrowthgoingasgrowthinglobaleconomyhasseensignstoslackenoff.China’seconomymanagestobouncebackquickly,butitstillisconfrontedwithaseriesofconstraints.5.AnAnalyticalStudyofObamaAdministration’sSecurityStrategyinAsia-Pacific,byXuJia,Chief67——