国外著名全球气候变迁整合模式的发展现况与愿景

-1-()(scenarios)NOx,COVOCO3OH()NONH3(coupling)(couple)(Atmosphere-OceanGeneralCirculationModels,AOGCMS)(IntegratedAssessmentModels,IAMs)(GeneralCirculationModels,GCMs)IAMsGCMIAMs(PeckTeisberg,1996;ManneRichels,1999)(RegionalClimateModels,-2-RCMs)(1)2001IPCC(2)(TheMITIntegratedGlobalSystemModel,IGSM)(3)(IntegratedModeltoAssesstheGreenhouseEffect,IMAGE2)(4)LFBQUEST(5)()2001IPCCIPCC2001(Integratedassessmentmodels,IAMs)IAMs()IAMsIAMs(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)IAMsIAMIAMs1993HadiDowlatabadiGrangerMorganHouseIAMs(IPCC)IAMsIMAGE2IAMsIAMsIAMs(1)IAMs(2)IAMs(3)(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)IPCC-3-(threshold)(1)(2)(3)IAMsGHGIAMs()()(TheMITIntegratedGlobalSystemModel,IGSM)(IGSM)IGSMCO2/IGSM()()IGSM//(theMITIntegratedGlobalSystemModel,IGSM)()(IntegratedModeltoAssesstheGreenhouseEffect,IMAGE2)IMAGE2.0---4---IMAGE1.0IMAGE2.0(1)(2)(3)IMAGE2.0(0.5x0.5)IMAGE2.0/CO2,CH4,N2O2D/3DNPPN2OCH4N2O,CO2CNCO2,(theMITIntegratedGlobalSystemModel,IGSM)()-5-IMAGE2.0--(1)(2)(1)(2)()(3)(4)(5)()(1)-(2)(3)-IMAGE2()LFBQUESTLFBQUEST(LowerFraserBasinQuest)()(1)(2)(3)(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(1)(2)()(3)-6-()LFBQUESTLFBQUEST4010uuuuuuuuulllllllllØØØØØØØØØØØØØØØ40uuuu-7-()(1)(2)(3)(1)(2)(3)(1)(2)2001IPCC1.2.3.1.2.3.1.a.13b.(drivingforce)2.a.b.CO23.a.b.LFBQUEST1.2.3.1.a.b.2.a.b.3.a.b.-8-2001IPCC1.a.b.c.d.e.2.a.b.c.d.e.1.(1)a.12b.c.(2)a.2D3D(GCM)b.()(3)a.b.2.(1)a.(CO2,CO,CH4,SO2,NOx,N2O,CFCs)b.c.(2)(3)(TEM)a.CO2b.1.(1)(2)2.(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)-9-LFBQUEST1.(1)(2)(3)2.(1)(2)(3)1.(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)2.(1)(2)(ClimateChange2001-TheScientificBasis)(incongruity)(biophysical)(firstorder)2-D(3O)10%20503-DAOGCM19902100110(couple)-10-(RegionalClimateModel,RCMS)RCMS1020Multi-DecadalRCMS-/-downscaling(-)()()()2001IPCC(TheMITIntegratedGlobalSystemModel,IGSM)(IntegratedModeltoAssesstheGreenhouse,IMAG2)(LFBQUEST)://globetrotter.berkeley.edu/pubs/glchpref.html(Integratedassessmentmodels,IAMs)–AMultidisciplinaryApproach.CambridgeUniversityPress.ClimateChange2001-TheScientificBasis.Ed.-11-ByJ.T.Houghton,etal.ContributionofWorkingGrouptotheThirdAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.IPCCPublished,CambridgeUniversityPress.Manne,A.S.andR.G.Richels,1999.TheKyotoProtocol:ACost-effectiveStrategyforMeetingEnvironmentalObjectives?EnergyJournalSpecialIssueontheCostsoftheKyotoProtocol:AMulti-modelEvaluation,1-24.Peck,S.C.andT.J.Teisberg,1996.InternationalCO2EmissionsTargetsandTimetables:AnAnalysisoftheAOSISProposal.EnvironmentalModelingandAssessment,1(4),219-227.