我国工业技术发展战略选择的模拟分析

200366:100026788(2003)0620009210,(,350002):,L,,20002010,L,L:;;:F403.6:ATheSimulationontheChoiceofTechnologicalStrategyofOurCountry’sIndustryCHENGuo2hong,WANGWei(FuzhouUniversity,Fuzhou350002,China)Abstract:ThefocusofthestudyaboutTechnologicalstrategicchoiceinthispaperistofindoutthefinecombinationbetweenTechnologyIntroduction(Tech_Intr)andR&Dbasedonthequantitativeanalysis.Firstly,thispaperbuildaeconometricmodelthroughtherelationshipanalysisbetweenTech_Intr,R&Dandothereconomicactivities.Then,wetakeTech_IntrinvestmentandR&Dinputasinstrumentvariable,takefourmaineconomicvariablessuchasGDPasobjectivevariable,andusetheeconometricmodelabovetosimulateandanalysethedevelopmenttendencyofobjectivevariablesfrom2000to2010underthedifferentinputrateoftwoinstrumentvariables.Finally,wemakearationaljudgmentaboutthechoiceofthetechnologicalstrategyofourcountry’sindustryaccordingtothesimulatingresultabove.Keywords:technologicalstrategicchoice;econometricmodel;simulation:2002204205:(70171026):(1953-),,,,,:;(1975-),,,,:1,,,L,,,L,L,,L,L,LJamesM.Utterback[1],--;,,©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.[2];,,,L[3],,L,,,,[4]L,,[5]L,,,,[6]LSWOT,,,,[7]L,[8]L,L,,,L,L,L,,,,,,L,,,L,,,L,,,,,,L,,L22.1,L,9,6,44,1L2.21,,Z1)GDP;:GDP_OTHE¤;:GDP_INDU;:IPV;:TECH_R&D;:IFA-;:INFA-;:IFAI-;:AFAI-;:2)GDP-1GDP_OTHE-1IFA-1IFAI-1-IFAI-4-AFAI-1-0120036©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.13)TECH_INTR;TECH_INTR-2-DEPRECIATION-;ROI-FDI-4)X10-1989,19900,1,,1,0ZX11-1986,1989,1993,199419970,1,,1,0ZX12-19881994199519970,1,,1,0ZX13-1985198919941995199719980,1,,1,0Z2.31,:GDP=GDP_OTHE+GDP_INDU(1)GDP_OTHE=C(1)+C(2)GDP_OTHE-1+C(3)AFAI+U2(2)GDP_INDU=C(4)+C(5)IPV+C(6)X10+U3(3)IPV=C(7)TECHs_R&DC(8)TECHs_INTRC(9)IFAC(10)eC(11)X11(4)TECH_R&D=C(12)+C(13)TECH_INTR-2+C(14)IPV+C(15)X12+U5(5)IFA=GDP-13(1-DEPRECIATION)+INFA(6)INFA=C(16)+C(17)IFAI+C(18)IFAI-4+U7(7)IFAI=C(19)+C(20)AFAI+C(21)IFAI-1+C(22)X13+U8(8)AFAI=C(23)+C(24)ROI+C(25)GDP-1+C(26)AFAI-1+C(27)FDI+U9(9)(1)(6)L(2),L(3)L(4),,116©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.L(5).(7),L(8)L(9)L2.41)1985,L2),,:;;;;;L,,L,,,,L3),8.86%25.05%,LL,,L33.1,,19851998L,1985LExcel2000TSP.3.2(4)(5),,OLS,,2SLSL((1)(6)),(4)(5),,OLSL:GDP=GDP_OHTE+GDP_INDU(1)GDP_OTHE=-1169.623+1.139GDP_OTHE-1+770.648AFAI(2)(-2.722)(28.94)(2.2)R2=0.986F=451.57DW=2.3GDP_INDU=533.016+0.254IPV+363.615X10(3)(2.87)(38.59)(2.05)R2=0.992F=833.06DW=1.6IPV=34.744TECH_R&D0.522TECH_INTR0.174IFA0.408e-0.171X11(4)(8.188)(2.923)(4.025)(4.32)(3.248)R2=0.964F=88.16DW=1.94TECH_R&D=29.91-0.345TECH_INTR-2+0.0028IPV+10.54X12(5)(6.42)(-2.95)(12.26)(3.72)R2=0.956F=81.23DW=2.19IFA=IFA-13(1-DEPRECIATION)+INFA(6)2120036©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.INFA=-219.654+0.521IFAI+0.486IFAI-4(7)(-2.64)(7.725)(5.42)R2=0.973F=165.87DW=1.9IFAI=211.407+0.37AFAI+0.136IFAI-1+84.96X13(8)(2.065)(7.69)(1.94)(1.88)R2=0.9916F=433.56DW=1.4AFAI=-3655.42+9110.94ROI+0.155GDP-1+0.22FDI+0.024AFAI-1(9)(-2.09)(2.93)(2.64)(1.58)(2.305)R2=0.956F=81.23DW=2.193.3;0.05;0.95;0.05Z,Z,,1989-1998Z1.1:%1989-1.00.032.09-3.090.554.490.97-4.2119902.30.490.29-4.310.211.29-0.353.2019910.91.97-1.032.193.21-4.11-0.152.1719921.62.392.95-0.39-2.391.263.190.371993-0.6-4.022.353.260.29-1.97-4.194.351994-4.3-2.033.061.962.512.591.09-2.0719955.02.682.23-2.673.060.190.16-2.361996-4.30.153.651.060.194.19-2.16-1.2319973.6-2.39-0.562.562.31-2.31-1.064.3519982.90.460.58-3.68-0.160.593.130.211,5à,,Z44.1Z,,,Z,,,Z,,Z,:,(TECH_R&D)(TECH_INTR),316©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.(GDP)(GDP_INDU)(IPV)(IFAI),,(),,Z,,,,Z,,,,Z4.2(ROI)Z15,0.37,,0.37Z(DEPRECIATION)Z15,5%-7%,Z,Z(TECH_R&D)ZZ:(T)TECH_R&D=52.31+0.21TECH_R&D-1+6.92T(4.6)(3.79)(3.94)R2=0.956F=97DW=2.32(TECH_INTR)Z,19851998(19881989),1:21:4Z,,1:3,Z(FDI)Z,Z:FDI=-50.9+0.73FDI-1+16.78T(-1.3)(4.21)(2.2)R2=0.956F=98DW=1.594.3:20002010Z:,,L2:,15%,,L3:2,15%,,L4:2,15%,,L4.41):,2.4120036©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.22000-2010:200029536.9512908.6146089.7716295.712554.972200130300.1513836.849478.517498.452768.473200233458.315764.9853967.2319701.192901.974200334518.9718021.4656255.9622903.943045.474200436209.6419101.3459644.6923106.683458.975200537400.3220415.5261033.4325509.433672.476200640530.9921847.7165422.1627002.173915.976200745000.6623405.8967810.8928474.914019.477200845622.2324534.0769199.6229517.664215.978200948533.0127262.2574588.3531250.44666.479201050200.6829190.4477977.0834023.144789.9792)2:,3L2L32(%)20006.36.716.217.8820014.994.774.005.8320024.54.583.854.6920033.43.833.033.5320042.42.212.132.6120051.391.481.001.7720060.320.260.511.10200700.070.280.682008-0.46-0.310.030.152009-0.8-0.78-0.330.002010-1.2-1.34-1.21-0.7243(%)20007.87.56.956.7720016.166.56.436.0620025.75.035.895.4920035.24.984.955.1920043.93.594.014.0020053.253.193.423.8720062.432.372.893.3120071.331.251.3122.0120080.340.2980.870.5620090.0670.1590.2690.2920100.0420.0390.020.10932,,L,2,L:,,,,,L2,,,L,,,,---L,,,L2,L3)3:,4L3L4,3,516©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDis