食品加工未来的发展方向(1)

30FOODTECHNOLOGYDECEMBER2002•VOL.56,NO.12NeilH.Mermelstein,Editorntherecentpast,FoodTechnologypublishedanumberofarticlesinwhichexpertsinfoodscienceandtechnologydescribedwhattheyexpectedtohappenintheirareasofexpertiseoverthenextfewyears.In“ResearchPrioritiesMoveTowardHealthyandSafe”(December2000,p.42),38chiefresearchofficersofmajorfoodcompaniesdiscussedtheresearchareasthattheirdepartmentsareinvolvedin,andin“ALookIntotheFutureofFoodScience&Technology”(January2002,p.46),representativesofeachofIFT’s26DivisionstoldwhattheyforeseehappeningintheirrespectiveDivision’sareaofexpertiseoverthenextfewyears.Tovarythesourceofexpertsevenfurtherthisyear,Iaskedthescientif-iceditorsresponsibleforpeerreviewofresearchpapersintheInstituteofFoodTechnologists’journals—JournalofFoodScience,JournalofFoodSci-enceEducation,andComprehensiveReviewsinFoodScienceandFoodSafe-ty—totellwhatfoodresearchtheysee—andforesee—intheirareasofex-pertise.Inthisarticle,34oftheeditorsprovidetheirviews(arrangedal-phabeticallybyauthorandjournal),andOwenFennema,IFT’sEditor-in-Chief,IFTScientificJournals,providesanintroduction.Theresultisacomprehensiveoverviewofthestateofresearchinallaspectsoffoodsci-enceandtechnology—includingeducation,whichisobviouslythestartingpointforallfoodresearch.Ihopeyoufinditinterestingandstimulating.ForecastingtheFutureByOwenR.FennemaWhenconsideringdiscussionofthistopic,itseemsap-propriatetoask:Isthisdiscussionworthwhile?and,Isspeculationofthistypelikelytobereliable?Theanswertothefirstquestionisclearlyyes.Foodcompaniesspendmillionsofdollarsannuallyonresearchanddevelopment,andtheresultscanbehighlypleasingorsadlydisappointing,dependingonwhetherthefundsarewiselyallocated.Wiseallocationsarebasedoncompanystrengths,carefulanalysisofexist-FoodResearchTrends–2003andBeyondThirty-fivescientistsresponsibleforpeerreviewofresearchpapersinIFT’sjournalstellwhatfoodresearchtheysee—andforesee—happeningintheirareasofexpertise.IFOODTECHNOLOGYFeaturePhotocourtesyofAgriculturalResearchService,USDAFOODTECHNOLOGY31VOL.56,NO.12•DECEMBER2002ingtrends,andaccurateforecastsre-gardingthefirm’sfuturecapabilitiesandconsumerpreferences.Companystrengthsandfuturecapabilitiescan,ofcourse,beassessedbycompanyperson-nel;however,outsidehelpishighlyben-eficialforacquiringtheotherkindsofinformation.Onesourceofoutsidehelp,butobviouslynottheonlyone,isarticlesofthekindpresentedhere.Thesecondquestionismorecompli-cated,sinceitentailstwosub-questions.First,whatspecificallyarewespeculat-ingabout?Products?Processes?Modesofproductdelivery?Modesofmarket-ing?Threats?Consumerbehavior?Itisdesirable,ofcourse,toconsiderallofthese,becausetofocusonbutoneortwoentailstheriskofmissingwhatmightbemostimportant.Second,spec-ulationinvolvesthefuture,butthetimeframehasnotbeenspecified.Itisonethingtospeculateaboutwhatislikelytohappennextyearbutquiteanothertodothesameforthenextdecade.Longer,ofcourseisbetter,providedthatthespeculationisreasonablyreliable—butthemoredistanttheforecast,themoreunreliablepredictionsusuallyare.Thoseparticipatinginthisarticlewill,Ibelieve,offerpredictionsthatarequitereliablebecauseeachishighlycompetentinhisorherfieldofspecial-ization.SoIsuggestthattheircommentsareworthyofyourcarefulattention.Iwouldliketomentiontwopointsofoverridingimportanceforthefoodindustryingeneral.Oneisthehistoricalpatternofadvancesinfoodtechnology,andtheotheristheimpactofcompanymergers.Unlikeintheelectronicsindustry,wheremind-bogglinginnovationsarealmostadailyoccurrence,changesinfoodsandfoodprocessingaretypicallyevolutionary.Abundantevidenceclearlyindicatesthedifficulty(impossibility?)ofpersuadingconsumerstoadoptrevo-lutionarychangesinthefoodtheycon-sume.Afewexamplesprovideconclu-sivesupportforthisstatement:•Theabilitytopreservefoodbyion-izingradiationwasdevelopedmorethanahalfcenturyago,yettheprocessisnotwidelyaccepted,eventhoughitsabilitytogreatlyinhibitfoodspoilageandlessentransmissionofdiseasehas•Consumeracceptanceofpasteur-izedmilkwasslow,begrudging,andac-companiedbymanyprotests,eventhoughthismeansofprocessingmilkextendeditsshelflifeandfreeditofpathogenicorganisms,aseriousprob-lemwithrawmilkatthetimepasteur-izationwasintroduced,andentailedonlyminordisadvantages.ManagersofR&Dandmarketingwhoignorethere-solveofconsumerstorejectmodifica-tionsinfoodandfoodprocessingsavethosethatareevolutionaryimperilthefinancialwell-beingoftheirfirms.Mergersinthefoodindustryhaveoccurredsteadilyoverthepastseveraldecades,andthereisnoreasontosus-pectachangeinthistrend.Largecom-paniesspendsubstantialamountsofmoneyonR&Dandmarketing,skillful-lyassessconsumerpreferences,andtai-lortheirproductsforthemassmarket.Wheredoesthisleavesmallandmedi-um-sizedfoodenterprisesthatarelessabletosupportR&Dandmarketingac-tivitiesbutareextremelyvaluabletothenationaleconomybecauseoftheirim-portantroleinjobcreation?Theycananddosurviveandoftenprosperbyidentifyinglocalornichemarketstoosmalltobeofinteresttotheirlargercompetitors,byinnovating(evolution-arily,ofcourse)inwaysthatlargerfirmsconsidertooriskyor,insomeinstances,bybecominglow-costproducers.