中国可再生能源与能源效率―现状与2020年展望

WORLDWATCHREPORT182RenewableEnergyandEnergyEªciencyinChina:CurrentStatusandProspectsfor2020october2010lisamastny,editorRenewableEnergyandEnergyEªciencyinChina:CurrentStatusandProspectsfor2020WORLDWATCHREPORT182Reprintandcopyrightinformationforone-timeacademicuseofthismaterialisavailablebycontactingCustomerService,CopyrightClearanceCenter,at+1978-750-8400(phone)or+1978-750-4744(fax),orbywritingtoCCC,222RosewoodDrive,Danvers,MA01923,USA.NonacademicandcommercialusersshouldcontacttheWorldwatchInstitute’sBu[e-mail].©WorldwatchInstitute,2010ISBN978-1-878071-95-8TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheWorldwatchInstitute;ofitsdirectors,officers,orstaff;orofitsfundingorganizations.Onthecover:WorkersonaroofcoveredbysolarpanelsattheThemePavilionoftheShanghaiWorldExpo2010.REUTERS/ChinaDailyInformationCorp.Summary.................................................................5China’sEnergyChallenges:TheRoleofRenewableEnergyandEnergyEªciency.......8EnergyEªciencyinChina...................................................11RenewableEnergyinChina..................................................23Prospectsfor2020.........................................................34TheWayForward..........................................................40Endnotes................................................................42Figures,Tables,andSidebarsFigure1.China’sEnergyConsumptionbySector,2007...........................10Figure2.China’sEnergyIntensityversusGDPGrowth,2005–09...................15Figure3.China’sSmallHydropowerInstalledCapacityandPowerGeneration,1985–2009............................................................27Figure4.China’sInstalledWindPowerCapacity,1992–2008......................29Figure5.ChineseSolarCellProductionandInstallation,2000–08..................30Figure6.China’sInstalledSolarHotWaterCapacity,1997–2009...................31Table1.China’sEnergyConsumptionbyFuelType,2007..........................9Table2.EnergyConsumptionPerUnitofMajorProduct,2000andTargetsfor2010and2020.........................................................14Table3.EnergyEªciencyofMajorEnergy-ConsumingEquipment,2000andTargetsfor2010........................................................15Table4.ChangeinEnergyConsumptionperUnitGDPIndexbyProvince,AutonomousRegion,andMunicipality,2008................................16Table5.EnergyConsumptionofMajorEnergy-ConsumingIndustrialProducts,2000,2005,and2008...................................................17Table6.EnergyConsumptionperUnitAreaofBuildingsinChina,theUnitedStates,andJapan,2008........................................................19Table7.ResidentialHeatingRequirementsperUnitAreainBeijing.................19Table8.TransportationEnergyConsumptioninChina,byMode,2000–05...........19Table9.TransportationEnergyEªciencyinChina,byMode,2006.................20Table10.VehiclePerformanceandFuelEconomyinChinaversusIndustrialCountries..20Table11.ImportantLocalWindEnergyTargetsinChina,2010and2020.............25Table12.China’sRenewableEnergyDevelopmentandUse,2008..................26Table13.Grid-ConnectedElectricityPricesinChina,byEnergySource...............27TableofContentsAcknowledgmentsThisreportwaswrittencollaborativelybymultipleauthors,includingWorldwatchInstitutecon-tributorsChristopherFlavin,AliceJaspersen,ElisaLai,HaibingMa,andAlexanderOchs,andChina-basedresearchersLiJunfeng(ChineseRenewableEnergyIndustriesAssociation–CREIAandChinaEnergyResearchInstitute–ERI),BaiQuan(ERI),andMaLingjuan(CREIA).Thereportalsohasbenefitedgreatlyfromthecommentsandrecommendationsofseveralexpertsinthefieldsofrenewableenergyandenergyefficiency,withspecialthanksgoingtoJonathanSinton(InternationalEnergyAgency)andFrankHaugwitzfortheircarefulreviewofearlydrafts.WealsoextendourappreciationtoourcolleaguesattheWorldwatchInstitute.FormerChinaProgramManagerYinglingLiuinitiatedthereportandworkedcloselywithChineseauthorstoproducethefirstdraft.WearealsogratefulforthecommittedsupportofDirectorofInstitutionalRelationsMaryC.Redfern,SeniorEditorLisaMastny,DirectorofPublicationsandMarketingPatriciaShyne,andCommunicationsDirectorRussellSimon.ThereportdesignandlayoutwereskillfullycompletedbyindependentdesignerLyleRosbotham.Finally,weareindebtedtotheRenewableEnergyandEnergyEfficiencyPartnership(REEEP)foritsgeneroussupportofthisproject.WeareespeciallygratefultoMarianneOsterkornandBinuParthanfromREEEPfortheirguidanceinthiseffort,theircarefulreviewofearlydrafts,andtheirinsightfulanddetailedcomments.ItwasapleasuretoworkwithREEEPonthisinitiative.RenewableEnergyandEnergyEªciencyinChina:ThreeScenariosfor2020.........37Sidebar1.Top-1000EnterprisesEnergyConservationProgram.....................12Sidebar2.YutongBus:Bu