基于控制论的突发事件应急管理架构

基于控制论的突发事件应急管理架构TheSystemFrameworkofEmergencyManagementBasedonCyberneticsYahuiWang123WenzhouWang3JianWang2XiaoLiu21.SchoolofEconomicsandManagementofBeihangUniversityBeijing,100083,P.R.China2.BeijingInstituteofCivilEngineering&ArchitectureBeijing,100044,P.R.China3.TheEngineeringEducationGraduateSchooloftheChineseAcademyofSciencesBeijing,100049,P.R.China王亚慧（YahuiWang）DoctorinSchoolofEconomicsandManagementofBeihangUniversityDeputydirectorinBeijingInstituteofCivilEngineering&ArchitectureVisitingProfessorintheEngineeringEducationGraduateSchooloftheChineseAcademyofSciencesCurrentInterests:1.Energysavingandoptimizationofcentralair-conditioningsystem;2.Projectmanagementinintelligentbuilding;3.Emergencymanagement.E-mail：[e-mail]摘要本文试图建立应用于突发事件应急管理的控制论架构。该架构展示了应用控制论来进行应急管理的创新思路。此系统由四大部分组成：1.给定环节；2.控制环节；3.反馈环节；4.控制对象。在预案执行过程中，需要对已经启动并正在实施的预案进行评估进而做动态调整。这实际上就涉及到对系统初始输入同时进行调整。如此，就使得系统中同时进行两方面的动态调整，即：输入量（计划）和控制策略（预案）的应变。从控制的角度看就会增加非常大的难度，这也是我们要加以研究的关键所在。关键词：项目管理突发事件应急管理控制论AbstractThispaperattemptstoestablishthecyberneticframeworkforemergencymanagement.Theframeworkshowstheinnovationideasofapplyingcyberneticsforemergencymanagement.Thesystemconsistsoffourmajorparts:1.Settingsegment2.Controlsegment3.Feedbacksegment4.PlantIntheprocessofimplementingpreventingplan,itisnecessarytoevaluateandthenadjustthepreventingplandynamicallywhichhasbeenstarted.Infact,itreferstoadjusttheinitialinputsofsystemsimultaneously.Therefore,therearetwodynamicadjustmentsinthesystemsimultaneously,i.e.variablesofinputs(plans)andcontrolstrategies(preventingplans).IndexTerms—cybernetics,emergencymanagement,projectmanagement,system1.CYBERNETICSANDMANAGEMENTCyberneticsisbasingonthefollowingtheories:itispossibletodevelopacommonmethodtoresearchthecontrolprocessesinvarioussystems.Oneofitsbasicfeaturesisthatitreviewsthesystemindynamics(movingandchanging),thusitprovidesanewmethodtoresearchmanagementquestionsinessence.Controlnotonlyisanimportantfunctionofmanagement,butalsothesuccessofmanagementisdeterminedbywhethertheeffectivecontrolornotinaway.Thespecificfunctionsofcontrolarethreeaspects:1.Controlistheimportantguaranteetofinishplan;2.Controlisthebasicwaytoachievetheorganization’sgoal;3.Controlistheeffectivemethodtoimprovework.2.THEFRAMEWORKOFCYBERNETICSAPPLYINGTOEMERGENCYMANAGEMENT3.PRESENTATIONSONFUNCTIONSOFSEGMENTS3.1SettingSegmentSettingsegmentisthesegmentwhichproducesinputtocontrolsystem;Theinputofmanagementcontrolsystemisthegivenplans.Thecontrolledsystemrunsaccordingtoplans,toensurenoerrorwiththedestinationtrack.Inemergencymanagementcontroltheory,thedestinationcontrolisadopted.Thedestinationcontrolis:theinputofsystemisthedestinationwhichsystemaimsat,i.e.,thesetgoal.Thisisamoremacro-scopticalcontrolmode.Thesettingsegmentisnotinvariable;itadjustscontinuallyaccordingtotheaccumulationofsystemhistoricaldataandthejudgmentofeventdisposaleffect.Thisisanobviousdifferenceaspectwithclassicalcontroltheory.3.PRESENTATIONSONFUNCTIONSOFSEGMENTS3.2ControlSegmentDecision-makingandcontrolsegmentisthekeysegmentinemergencymanagementprocess.Itincludestwomajorparts:decision-makingcontrol,i.e.,classificationandgradationassessingstandard,andswitchofpreventingplans.Onlytheclassificationandgradationmadebythedecision-makingcontrolsegmentisaccurateandthechosenpreventingplanisquickwhenemergenciesoccurs.3.PRESENTATIONSONFUNCTIONSOFSEGMENTS3.2.1ClassificationofCrisisorEmergencyEventTherewouldbemorepertinenceinthejudgmentforsituationofadisasterandthedesignofrelievingschemeifthereisclassificationandspecificdetailswhenemergencyeventoccurs.Insimplewords,thepurposeofclassificationistospecifythekindsofresourcesinvolved.Thedifferentdisasterkindsofemergencyeventrelatewiththetraitsofemergencyeventinthebeginning,developingphaseandthedifferentgeographyandresource.Wecouldchoosecorrelativevariables,ensuredifferentkindsofdataandbasicparameters,sorttheemergencyevents.3.PRESENTATIONSONFUNCTIONSOFSEGMENTS3.2.2GradationofEmergencyEventBasingonclassification,relativeelementsandinfluenceparameteraboutgradationshouldbestudiedandconfirmedunderspecifickindofdisaster,andrelativeelementmodulesshouldbeset,thesearethefoundationsforgradation;scientificgradationforemergencyeventscouldhelppeopletounderstandtheseriousnessofemergencyeventandinstancyofsuccormorecorrectly.Themainobjectiveofgradationistodeterminetheamountofdevotingresources.Theglobalobjectivetogradeeventsistofindoutaseriesofrelativeelementssuchastheerrorcharacteristics,resourcecharacteristics,sotheswitchofcontrolstrategycouldbeconductedquicklyandsaveasmuchenergyandresourcesaspossibleatthesametime.3.PRESENTATIONSONFUNCTIONSOFSEGMENTS3.3InformationFeedbackDisposalSegmentEmergencymanagementcontrolsystemisaminusfeedbackclosed-loopsystemwithinformationfeedbacksegment.Closed-loopsystemwithaminusfeedbackusuallycouldresisttheimpactonsystemfromoutsidedisturbancesanduncertaintiesofsystemitself,soithasstrongeradaptiveabilitytoenvironment,andthecontrolprecisionismoreaccurate.Thedifferencebetweenthesystemputforwardherefromusualfeedb