优序融资理论的实证研究综述

20113NORTHERNECONOMYANDTRADE、1958ModiglianiMillerMM。MM。Fama&French20022005。、MM。1977Ross。1984MyersRoss“”“”。。。。。。。。。、MyersMyjluf1965-198261%23%27%。。Shyam-SunderMyers1999FamaFrench2002FrankGoyal2003。FamaFrench20022005。Booth2000。。Shyam-SunderMyersShyam-SunderMyers1999《》1.ΔDit=a+bPODEFit+eit,DEFt=DIVt+It+ΔWt-Ct=ΔDt+ΔEt3-1a=0bPO=1。2010-11-021979-。1160231005-913X201103-0090-CAMM。。F830.9A1005-913X201103-0090-039020113BEIFANGJINGMAO。2.ΔDit=a+bTA(Dit*-Dit-1)(3-2。bTA0。1971-1989157。。JonathanBaskinJonathanBaskin1989《》5003781960-1972。Jonathan,NDAR(72)=0.47-1.15ROA(72)-0.45ROA(70)-0.45ROA(65)-0.04GROWTH53-3NDAR=ROA=/GROWTH=19721960。10%20%。DIVEONDAR(72)1972DIVEQ(65)19651.59t=5.1。。1960、1965、19701965、1970、1972。1972NDAR(72)=0.714DIVED(60)3-4NDAR(72)=0.828DIVED(65)3-5NDAR(72)=0.908DIVED(70)3-61960、1965、19701965、1970、19721972NDAR(72)=0.497NDAR(60)3-7NDAR(72)=0.637NDAR(65)3-8NDAR(72)=0.895NDAR(70)3-9。Size、QROA、DIVED。。。JeanHeIwegeNelieLiangJeanHelwegeNelieLiang1996《》。IPO。。。。1010。———。。123。Z。。。()Chudson1937IRSAidittiHall-weissGaleBakeHrudleCarletor-SibermanNakamura-TitmanLong-MaitzTitman-wesse1sToy、、9120113NORTHERNECONOMYANDTRADE4-4LearyRobertsKesterToy、。。。、、、。、FrankGoyalShyam-SunderMyersΔEit。ChirinkoSingha2000DEF。89%。1.78%bPO=0.54Shyam-SunderMyers。Shyam-SunderMyers。2.89%。bPO=0.99。。3.1DEF0.890.11/。0.89。bPO=0.89R2=1.0。DEF。()LearyRobertsChirinkoSinghaLearyRoberts[4]。。C軒4-1。0=Investmentit-(InternalFundsit-1-(ac+εit))4-1InternalFundsi=CashBalanceit-1+CashFlowit-Dividendsit-ΔWorkingCapitalit4-2(ac+εit)。Investmentit≥C軒Externalit=1Externalit=0。C軒=(InternalFundsit-1-(ac+εit))。D軒4-3。0=Investmentit-(InternalFundsit-1-ac-εit)-(aD+ηit-Debtit-1)4-3aD+ηit。D軒C軒。Investmentit≥D軒Internalit=1C軒≤Investmentit刍D軒Externalit=0。D軒=(InternalFundsit-ac-εit)+(aD+ηit-Debtit-1)。33%。LearyRobertsBharathPasquarielloWu2008ASYit。、。。[1]Fama,E.F.,French,K.R..Financingdecisions:whoissuesstock?JournalofFinancialEconomics.2005,76:549-582。[2]Frank,M.Z.,Goyal,V.K..Testingthepeckingordertheoryofcapitalstructure.JournalofFinancialEconomics.200367:217-248.[3]AndrewMacKinlay.TestingthePeckingOrder.2008-10-22~michauxm/po_lit_presentation.pdf.4-1=0.674-2=0.544-3=0.9992