汇丰银行LED照明行业分析报告

abcGlobalResearchLEDlightingwillhitaninflectionpointin2013andreshapethelightingindustryWeseestronggrowthopportunitiesuntil2017but,inthelongterm,theindustrywillfacelowermarginsandreturnsWeinitiatecoverageonInfineonwithanOWratingandEUR7.25targetpriceandupgradeZumtobeltoOW(V)fromNIndustryrevolutionahead:Today,lightingaccountsforaround19%ofworldelectricityconsumption.Weexpecttheneedformoreenergy-efficientlighting,regulatorysupport,rapidlydecliningLEDchippricesandtechnologicalprogresstodrivethetransitionoftraditionallightingvaluechaintowardsLEDs.WeexpectLEDlightingdemandtohitaninflectionpointin2013,andforecastLEDstoaccountfor30%ofgloballightsourcerevenuesby2015.Fewlong-termindustrywinners:WhilewebelievethistransitionphasewillresultinaboveGDPgrowthratesoverthenextfiveyears,wehaveamorecautiousviewonthelong-termwinnersinthisindustry.HighpricepressureonLEDs,competitionfromnewentrants,increasedcyclicalityandadecliningreplacementmarketwillreducemarginsandcapitalreturns.AsthelonglifespanofLEDswillcauseashiftinrevenuesfromreplacementdemandtonewinstallations,weexpectthemostdisruptivechangeswillbeinthelightsourceindustry.ForOsram,Siemens’lightingsubsidiary,webelievemarginsareunlikelytoreturntohistoricallevelsofabove10%inthemediumterm,andPhilips’upstreampresenceposesachallengeforthecompanywhenpricesarefalling,inourview.WebelieveleadingluminaireplayerssuchasZumtobelandNVCLightingarebestpositionedtobenefitfromLEDlightinggrowthgivenopportunitiesformarketsharegains,positiveproductmixshiftsandvaluableend-customeraccess.LEDequipmentorderstoremaindepressedinH12012:WhilewebelieveAixtronwillbeakeybeneficiaryofthenextlighting-drivenLEDcapexcycle,weseefewpositivecatalystsforthesharesinthenearterm.EarningsshouldcontinuetosufferfromovercapacityinAsia,thecurrentgapbetweenthebacklightingandlightingcapexcycleandgrossmarginpressureontoughcompetitionwithVeeco.Webelievethecurrentorderdownturncouldlastforatleasttwomorequarters.GlobalequitiesElectricalEquipmentLEDlightingArevolution,butfewlong-termwinnersRatingsandtargetpricesofrelatedstocksfromouruniverseCompanyBBGCurrentpriceCurr-encyNewratingOldratingNewtargetOldtargetAixtronAIXAGR9.6EURN(V)N(V)10.011.0Epistar2488TT61.0TWDUW(V)UW(V)48.048.0InfineonIFXGR6.2EUROWn/a7.25n/aNVCLighting2222HK2.9HKDOW(V)OW(V)4.84.8PhilipsPHIANA15.1EURNN15.015.0SeoulSemi046890KS22,650KRWN(V)N(V)24,00024,000SiemensSIEGR75.6EUROWOW82.082.0WackerChemieWCHGR69.7EUROW(V)OW(V)85.0111.0ZumtobelZAGAV12.6EUROW(V)N15.020.0Source:HSBCestimates,Bloomberg13December2011ChristianRath*AnalystHSBCTrinkaus&BurkhardtAG,[e-mail]at:*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsIssuerofreport:HSBCTrinkausandBurkhardtAGDisclaimer&DisclosuresThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit2GlobalequitiesElectricalEquipment13December2011abcAtectonicshiftinthelightingindustryahead3Lightingprimer10Regulationandcostaremaindriversforadoption18SizingtheLEDlightingopportunity28Companyprofiles39Aixtron40Epistar46Infineon50NVCLighting60Philips64SeoulSemiconductor70Siemens76WackerChemie82Zumtobel88Glossary93Disclosureappendix97Disclaimer100Contents3GlobalequitiesElectricalEquipment13December2011abcTheriseofLEDlightingMorethan130yearsago,ThomasEdisonandJosephSwanindependentlyinventedtheincandescentlightbulb.Today,thegloballightingmarket,whichincludesluminaires(lightfittings),thelightsource(thebulborlamp)andrequiredelectronicssuchasballastsanddrivers,hasamarketsizeofaboutEUR52bn.Itgrewatanaveragerateofabout3%pabetween2005and2010,withgrowthdrivenbyconstructionactivity,anincreasingglobalpopulationandurbanisationtrends,especiallyintheemergingmarketsandAsia,amongotherthings.AccordingtotheIEA,19%ofglobalelectricityconsumptionand6%ofglobalCO²emissionsareattributabletolighting.Giventheirlowpurchaseprice,traditionalincandescentlights,whicharehighlyinefficientastheyemitabout10%lightand90%heat,arestilloneofthemostimportantlightingtechnologies(c45-50%ofannualunitsales)havingadominantmarketposition,andthisisparticularlystrongintheresidentialsector.Drivenbyneedformoreenergy-efficientlighting,governmentregulation(includinganincandescentlightbulbbaninmostOECDcountries)andrapidlydecliningLEDchipprices,weforecastAtectonicshiftinthelightingindustryaheadDrivenbyenergy-efficiencyregulationandrapidlydecliningLEDpricesweexpectLEDlightingtohitaninflectionpointin2013Luminaireandequipmentplayerscouldbebeneficiarieswhilethelight-sourceindustrywillfacethegreateststructuralchangeWeinitiatecoverageonInfineonwithanOverweightratingandupgradeZumtobeltoOverweight(V)fromNeutralChristianRath*AnalystHSBCTrinkaus&BurkhardtAG,[e-mail]*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsRatingsandtargetpricesCompanyBloombergCurrencyRatingClosingpriceTargetpricePotentialreturn*