港口、铁路、高速公路行业投资分析

蒸蒸日上的中国港口业分析员:郑栋2007年8月12日2内容提要•第一章行业基本面回顾•第二章重点公司推荐3第一章行业基本面回顾4吞吐量大增.GDP和外贸增长是主要动力•今年上半年国内主要港口的吞吐量同比上升15.5%,增幅较上年同期略低2个百分点。•上半年中国GDP增长11.5%,外贸增长23.3%,成为港口吞吐量上升的最重要动力。资料来源:CEIC,中金公司研究部Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.0%5%10%15%20%25%JanFebMarAprMayJun2006年吞吐量增长率2007年吞吐量增长率0%10%20%30%40%50%1Q0220029M031H041Q0520059M061H07对外贸易总值增长率沿海港口吞吐量增长率国内生产总值增长率5集装箱业务表现最为强劲资料来源:中金公司研究部,中国航贸网在港口业务中,今年上半年集装箱吞吐量创下24.4%的同比升幅,较上年同期的增速高1.2个百分点,在所有港口业务中居首。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.集装箱吞吐量增长率0%10%20%30%40%50%JanFebMarAprMayJun1H061H0724.1%15.9%8.0%0%5%10%15%20%25%集装箱煤炭金属矿石1H07主要货种吞吐量增长率6集装箱业务增长的动力:外贸增长,出口升级及运输集装箱化率的提升资料来源:CEIC,辽宁师大,中金公司研究部•我们的宏观分析小组预计今明两年外贸将分别增长26%和20%。•中国的出口结构继续升级。•中国的集装箱化率远低于国际同业。•我们估计未来三年，中国港口集装箱业务年复合增长率将达20%。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.中国出口结构010002000300040005000600070008000200020012002200320042005亿美元工业制成品初级产品90%91%90%92%93%94%世界集装箱化率-5,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000中国韩国台湾德国新加坡荷兰香港美国日本(USD)60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%人均GDP（左轴）集装箱化率（右轴）7短期内无须担忧港口吞吐能力过剩•据交通部规划，到2010年中国将拥有377个集装箱泊位,总设计吞吐能力为1.36亿TEU。•2006年，中国集装箱吞吐量达9,300万TEU，我们预计明年将升至1.339亿TEU，到2010年底将接近设计吞吐能力。•未来四年强劲的需求应会缓冲持续扩容压力，极大缓解吞吐能力过剩的担忧。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.8增值税退税调整影响不大•机械和运输设备在中国的出口中占主要部分。•近期的增值税退税调整对这部分的影响甚微，调整后其退税率仍高达9-11%，居于首位。•中国政府鼓励高附加值机械产品的发展，这有望推升港口吞吐量。资料来源:CEIC,中金公司研究部Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’sw