行业分析报告-JPM_Biotechnology

NorthAmericaEquityResearch13July2010USBiotechnology2Q10EarningsPreview;CELG,ACOR,andUTHRAreBestIdeasUSBiotechnologyGeoffreyMeacham,Ph.D.AC(1-212)[e-mail],MD(1-212)[e-mail](1-212)[e-mail](91-22)[e-mail]dSeepage57foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.2Q10earningsseasonforbiotechkicksoffnextweekwithBiogen,Gilead,andGenzymeallreporting.Aswewroteinlastweek'sPriorityReview,thetoneinbiotechremainsquitenegative,butexpectationsaregenerallylow.For1QearningsseasonthefocuswasonUShealthcarereform;weexpectcontinuedemphasisin2QonpricingpressureintheUS/EUaswellastherisksfor2011suchastheHCexcisetaxanddonutholeelimination.Hence,2Qearningsaren'tlikelytoprovideachangeintonewiththebestopportunitiesbeinglaunchstories(ACOR/ALTH/UTHRandAMGN)orthosewithnewindications/dataleadingtovolumegains(CELG).We'recautiousonGENZwithalikelydownwardrevisiontoguidance,andwethinkthatearningsforGILDandBIIBshouldprovidelimitedvolatilitygivenTMC-278phase3dataafter2Q(GILD)andhigherlevelcommentsfromanewCEO(BIIB).•Amgen:Our2Qestimateisapennyaheadofconsensusat$1.30,thoughwearemorecautiousonAranesp(WWsales$21Mbelowat$620M)andEnbrel($20Mbelowat$859M).TherearenoexpectationsforProlia(launchedlastmonth),andAmgenhasalreadygivenapreliminaryviewofthe2011reformimpact.Hence,weexpectthefocustoremainonthephase3dmabprostatepreventionstudy(data4Q10e)anddmabSREapproval(1H11e).•Biogen:In2QweexpectamodestlybetterpictureforWWTysabriendusersales($315Mversus$307M),butwe'reevenwiththeStreetonEPSat$1.12.Importantly,WWTysabrinewstartscouldaccelerateto200/wkafterseeingadownsequentialquarterin1Qto148/wk.ThismaybeduetoincreasedcomfortwiththeJCVassay.ThefocusmayalsobeontheGileniaimpact.•Celgene:We'remodestlyraisingourRevlimidforecaststo$560Mfrom$556M(cons:$553M)givenlikelycontinuationoffavorableOUStrends.Wedon'texpectanotherguidanceraise,andweareinlinewiththeStreetonEPSat$0.66.ThefocusofthecallislikelyonthependingAbraxisdealaswellastheregulatorystrategysurroundingthemaintenancemyelomaopportunity.•Genzyme:Thekey2QmetricistheMyozyme/Lumizymeuptickfollowingthe2Qapproval,whichshouldshowaniceq/qimpact(JPMe:$102M;cons:$107M).Otherthanthat,2010guidancemaybeformallyloweredwiththefullimpactoftheconsentdecreefelt(JPMe:$2.22;cons:$2.51).Thefocuswillbeontheconsentdecreedeadlinesandtransferoffill/finishoutofAllstongiventheriskofaroyaltytoFDAshouldGenzymemisstheNov28deadline.•Gilead:IMSdatalookgoodfor2Q,andwe’realmost$20MaheadoftheStreetonWWHIVsales(to$1.6B),leadingtotwopenniesaheadonEPS(to$0.89).Thefocusofthecall,however,willbeonthepipelineandTMC-278phase3data,thelatterofwhichispresentedon7/22withtheabstracton7/17.•SMids:OurfavoriteSMidsgoinginto2QearningsseasonareACOR(Ampyra–JPMe:$6Maheadofcons.to$18.5M);ALTH(Folotyn–JPMe:$1Mbelowcons.to$11M)andUTHR(Tyvaso–JPMe:$2Mbelowcons.to$30M).Likethelargecaps,theSMidfocuswilllikelybeontheUS/EUpricingenvironmentandreimbursmentread-throughfromDNDNgiventheCMSongoingnationalcoverageanalysis.2NorthAmericaEquityResearch13July2010GeoffreyMeacham,Ph.D.(1-212)[e-mail]TargetsMktCapRatingPriceTargetCompanySymbol($mn)Price($)CurPrevCurPrevAcordaTherapeuticsInc.ACOR965.9433.87OWn/c48.00n/cAllosTherapeutics,Inc.ALTH573.285.62OWn/c10.00n/cAMAGPharmaceuticalsAMAG628.1936.70OWn/c42.00n/cAmgenIncAMGN59,362.0852.44OWn/c65.00n/cAmicusTherapeuticsFOLD46.162.07Nn/c–n/cAVEOPharmaceuticals,Inc.AVEO41.466.54OWn/c14.00n/cBiogenIdecBIIB17,739.4851.66Nn/c55.00n/cCelgeneCorporationCELG22,047.6851.11OWn/c70.00n/cGenzymeCorporationGENZ15,077.5153.74Nn/c50.00n/cGileadSciences,Inc.GILD33,470.6734.48OWn/c55.00n/cInterMune,Inc.ITMN416.239.06Nn/c13.00n/cIronwoodPharmaceuticals,Inc.IRWD1,076.2711.05OWn/c18.00n/cMedivation,Inc.MDVN306.589.16Nn/c12.00n/cPDLBioPharmaPDLI5.91Nn/c7.00n/cPharmasset,Inc.VRUS728.4125.75OWn/c35.00n/cUnitedTherapeuticsUTHR2,640.8549.05OWn/c65.00n/cVertexPharmaceuticalsVRTX4,500.7433.47Nn/c43.00n/cSource:Companydata,Bloomberg,J.P.Morganestimates.n/c=nochange.Allpricesasof12Jul10.LargeCapBiotech2Q10PreviewTable1:2Q10LargeCapBiotechEarningsCalendarCompanyTickerJPMReleaseCCDial-InPasscodeReplayReplayRatingDateTime(ET)Dial-In(Passcode)AmgenAMGNOW7/295:00PMET877-233-5736Amgen’sQ2EarningsConf800-642-168784162323BiogenBIIBN7/208:30AMET877-650-1145BiogenTBDTBDCelgeneCELGOW7/299:00AMETTBDTBDTBDTBDGenzymeGENZN7/2111:00AMET773-799-3828Genzyme402-998-1512TBDGileadGILDOW7/20TBDTBDTBDTBDTBDSource:J.P.Morganestimates,Bloomberg.J.P.MorganRatings:OW=Overweight,N=Neutral,UW=Underweigh