湖南省电力公司定价策略研究

湖南大学硕士学位论文湖南省电力公司定价策略研究姓名：刘志刚申请学位级别：硕士专业：工商管理指导教师：谢赤20070329IIIIIAbstractThepowermarketbuildingofourcountrystartswithaveryweakfoundationofwholemarket,sothestabilityproblemofthepowermarketisespeciallyoutstandingandimportant.It’sanurgentandcriticalsubjectinfrontofthetheorycircleandpractitionerofpowermarketinourcountrytoknowhowtoensurethesecurityandstabilityinthepowermarketbuildingandpromotetheoperationalefficiencyofthepowermarketonthisbasis.ThistexthasbeenanalyzedtothedevelopmentofElectricPowerCo.ofHunanProvinceanddomesticpowermarket.Combinetheperformanceofthetime-of-usetariffsofelectricityandabundantwitheredseasonpriceinHunanpowergrid.IthaspointedoutthedefectandputforwardtotheadjustmentofthosetwopricingmethodsinHunanpowergrid.IthascarriedontheinvestigationtotheperformanceofCPP(CriticalPeakPrice)intheworldandexplainedtheimplementationprerequisiteanddemandofCPP.Onthisbasis,throughexplainingmonthlyloadofHunanpowergrid,itbringsupanideatotheimplementationofCPPinElectricPowerCo.ofHunanProvince.Throughexplainingtheoreticalresearch,implementationprerequisiteanddemandfortherelevantreal-timepricesandthesystemsofusersofreal-timeprice,thistexthasanalyzedthenecessityofthesystemsofusersofreal-timepriceinElectricPowerCo.ofHunanProvince.Italsohasputforwardtheschemeofimplementing.Throughtheresearchandanalysisabove,ithasdrawnthefollowingconclusions:Underthenewsituationofthereforminpowersystem,ElectricPowerCo.ofHunanshouldpayattentiontothatitmustintroducesupplyanddemandsidetofindandfixpriceinthebeginning.Itshouldintroducethedemandsidedynamicalpricefixedearly;solicitthesupportofthepeople’sgovernmentofHunanProvinceandrelateddepartments.BeforepowermarketrunninginCentralChina,ElectricPowerCo.ofHunanProvinceshouldmainlydoagoodjobtotheadjustmenttothetime-of-usetariffsofelectricityandtheabundantwitheredpriceandCPP,makeitaccordwiththepresentloadcharacteristicoftheHunanpowergrid.Itshouldreducepeakload,movethepeaktofilloutthevalley,reducetheconstructioninputofthepowergrid,sendmoreelectricitywiththesamepowergrid,andpromotethesaleofelectricconsumptionwiththelowerpriceofvalley.AfterthepowermarketbeginstoruninCentralChina,ElectricPowerCo.ofHunanProvincecanimplementreal-timesystemofusers’priceIVtogoondemandsideresponseinthegeneratesidetocompeteprice,reducethefluctuationofthepriceandthemarketrisk.KeyWords:Pricingtactics;Time-of-usetariffsofelectricity;Realtimeprice;Criticalpeakload;DemandsideresponseVII1.1………………………………………………………………………93.11993~2006…………………………253.22005(812)…………………………………………………273.32005(13)…………………..…………………………274.1………………………………………..…………………………325.1DR……………………...…………………………44VIII2.1………..……………………113.120041993….…...………….………………………243.22001~2005……………………………………………………243.32003.01~2005.09………………………………………………253.4………..…………………263.5…………..…………………………263.6………………………………..…………………………………284.1Tempo(20035)…………….……………………………………304.2RVSP(20035)…….………………314.32004()…………..………………344.42005()…………..………………354.52006()…………..………………355.12006………………………………………445.22006()…………………..…………………45I1______2111.120022002520031352.347.3231.21.2.11020012004[1][2][3]2001IEA(InternationalEnergyAgency)OECD(OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment)2003NETA[4]RuffLarry[5]Caves,EakinFaruquiBraithwaitFaruqui[6,7]2002FERC(FederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission)FERC4[8]Alvarado[9],[10][11][12],[13]Borenstein[14][15][16]Wang[17][18]Herter[19]1.2.21.2.2.135(1)=(1+)÷(1)(2)=(+)÷(3)=(+)÷(4)=(+)÷(1)(2)(1)(2)1.2.2.26(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)[20]1.2.3[21]7[3]DR(DemandResponse)2TOU(TimeofUseRates)CPP(CriticalPeakPrice)RTP(RealTimePrice)8[22]1001505~8%4~7%20%80%(1)25012.5KW160(2)6800(3)31000NO2[23]1.31.3.11.191.11.3.25123451022.12.1.119921212199372820001222[2000]122520031218()2003125()()70%14()122()11689()14873262005344.0877.65%481221.6515.511.721199%2.12.1()1511.67180.25()790.5180.25()721.16035()52873593500()52500()550225220()7769220()17081479110()538354110()2340164435()129546035()68924535()5034029951500()156500()1913616220()194183220()83208205110()956719110()162091190135()197175235()23898922920052005674.4526.956.237.951260944.8121.992.1.22.1.2.1(1)5()(2)13()2.1.2.2(1)(2)1420057(3)13820062(4)20022520062.1.2.3(1)GDP10.20%2005674.4010.68%10%2006201073079586594510409.05%5205606106707408.99%(2)200569.615.1964.42200620106272889812514.30%15130037060870/8102010280041572(3)20062010()2006200820092010230200792.1.2.4200619(20062020)56644[24,25]162.22.2.1200620066220039163283441.312006200620067892006200617812()200620052.2.22.2.2.120041220053.1620062([2006]5)200620063200634.3637.5220062.2.2.22006433174342428122026()590%10%10620060%2.2.2.3200511()5017742.2.2.420057182.2.2.520066200692.32.3.1500()13813.5%3830%5002.3.1.1200581848(9800)3487543%4697357%20056()449011.89%344214.10%5959015.17%5009211409500()4650097638652204395522093481500192.3.1.26()94%382%6()6()()2.3.1.34()2001200258.083.5%2003136.675.3%2004134.104.4%2005207.236.0%()2.3.1.419962019961997~20002001~200320046()20051220062.3.22.3.2.1202.3.2.2(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)2.3.32.3.3.1()2.3.3.23(1)21(2)(3)2.42.4.1199520047(1)4700~8001100~15002200~23001900~2200800~11001500~190002200~7002