唐山市地质灾害综合防灾研究

X,(,063009):,,,,,,,,,:;;;;:P694:A:167222132(2005)03203092060,,,,,,[1],,,;,,,,,[2],,,,,[3],,,,,,,,,,,,,,[4],,,,,,1,,,:(1)1976,,2413,2025320059JournalofDisasterPreventionandMitigationEngineeringVol.25No.3Sep.2005X:2004210220;:2005202221:(98-01-02);(03276901):(19662),,,,Email:[e-mail]50,8(2),19791994,18,20km[5](3),,,(02213701,02213534),,11Fig.1IntegratedmodelofgeohazardsforminginTangshancity,,,,,2,2,,()4[6],2Fig.2FormingprocessofgeohazardsforminginTangshancity5,2(),,,[7],,,[8],,,[9],,[10],,,:Pj=(Wn,0+Wn,n-1õWn-1,n-2W10){xij}(1)i;j;Wn,n-1nn-1;Pjj;xijji,,,,2,4f,s,d,l2,,(1):Pj=(W30+W32õW21õW10)fjsjdjlj(2)4(2),,4,4,1(),112,015,2,1013256,23,19702,0104(2):W30=[-0.39070.1809-0.28711.252]W32=[1.8311-0.4038-1.05988]W21=-3.66662.6435-3.99882.1924-1.14592.47690.25190.77740.83080.61550.97010.9010.07250.28531.1580.53780.43230.1766W10=-3.43290.78165.9645-1.70232.2199-1.87021.171.15811.39162.0586-1.4189-1.2041-3.59084.17982.3994-3.1002-0.31161.8808-0.69472.99110.48214.59143.1973-4.1492,,[11],[6][7],,(2),(),3,,,3,,5(2),2,5s,k,g,f,e,:Pi=(W30+W32õW21õW10)sikigifiei(3),5,5,1,,112,015,2,16,23,,[10]:W30=[0.41123-0.03252-0.07461-0.19520-0.89891]W32=[0.32236-0.05392-0.06564]W21=0.275820.826540.821870.585420.982520.907550.218110.672370.949620.239210.527310.095251.069750.12364-2.304440.46679-9.8246-0.24048W10=0.069870.789750.723000.46763-0.296270.416460.933440.204990.724600.732940.82485-0.48906-0.645480.699152.324980.409981.018600.949060.018830.009020.335860.485340.697130.102230.659560.392340.199020.471450.694490.46568,5,,GIS,,(4)4,,40%,1133:3Fig.3DistributionofseismiccoefficientsinTangshancity4Fig.4RiskevaluationofGeohazardsinTangshanCity21325,,60%,,,,,,,,,,,3,,,,:(1),,,(2),,,,,(3),,,,(4),(5),WEB2GIS,,:[1],,.[J].,2002,18(4):3652379[2].[J].,2003,23(2):129[3]HarbiA,MaoucheS,AyadiA,etal.SeismicityandTectonicStructuresintheSiteofAlgiersanditsSurroundings:AStepTowardsMicrozonation[J].Pureandapplied.Geophysics,2004,162(6):9492967[4]SunR,VaccariF,MarraraF,etal.TheMainFeaturesoftheLocalGeologicalConditionsCanExplaintheMacroseismicIntensityCausedinXiji2Langfu(Beijing)bytheMs-7.7Tangshan1976Ear2thquake[J].Pureandapplied.Geophysics,1998,152(3):5072521[5],,.[J].,2003,25(6):7532756[6],,,.[J].,2003,23(10):176521769[7],.[J].,2004,26(2):1982201[8],,,.[J].,2001,20(2):1802189[9],.[J].,2002,25(4):3742378[10],,.[J].,2003,25(supp1):17222[11],,,.[J].,2003,22(3):36423693133:ResearchonIntegratedGeohazardPreventioninTangshanCityZHUQing2jie,SUYou2po(EarthquakeEngineeringResearchCenter,HebeiPolytechnicUniversity,Tangshan063009,China)Abstract:ThepotentialgeohazardsthreateningtheTangshancityconsistofearthquakeandotherhazardssuchaskarsticcollapse,groundsubsidencecausedbycoalmining,andetc.Thecharacteristicsandinf2luencefactorsofmaingeohazardsinTangshancityareanalyzed,andtheintegratedmodelandformingme2chanismofgeohazardsareinvestigated.ThedestructioneffectsofgeohazardsinTangshancity,arecontrolledbymanyfactors,therelationshipofwhichcannotbeexpressedaslinearfunctions.Potentialrisksofgeohazardsarerelatedtoseismicmovement,fracturingofbedrock,karsticcollapse,sitecategoryandlandform.Sincequantitativerelationshipsamongtheseinfluencefactorsaredifficulttobeobtainedusingtraditionalmethods,themultivariatenonlinearmodelbasedonartificialneuralnetworkisemployed.Withthismodel,thedistributionofgeohazardrisksinTangshancityiscalculatedwithreasonableprecision.Inthecalculation,thelearningcoefficientistakenas112,theinertiacoefficientas015,thenumberofhiddenlayeras2,thenumberofelementsas6inNo.1hiddenlayer,and3inNo12hiddenlayer.ThegeohazardriskofTangshancityisevaluatedandthedistributionofgeohazardriskisinv2estigated.TheresultsshowthatthegeohazardriskofTangshancityisgreaterthanthatmostotherareasby40percent,evenby70percentgreaterthansomelocalareas.Also,itisfoundthatthegeohazardriskdecreasesgraduallyfromsoutheasttonorthwest.Finally,theinfluencesofgeohazardriskdistributiononcityplanningandengineeringconstructionareanalyzedandsomesuggestionsaregivenforthesepurposes.Keywords:integratedgeohazard;artificialneuralnetwork;geohazardrisk41325