核电机组参与南方电力市场竞争的策略

上海交通大学硕士学位论文核电机组参与南方电力市场竞争的策略姓名：马刚申请学位级别：硕士专业：核能与核技术工程指导教师：叶春;徐礼新20090620П,SHANGHAIJIAOTONGUNIVERSITYDISSERTATIONABSTRACTПCOMPETITIONSTRATEGYOFNUCLEARPOWERINSOUTHELECTRICITYMARKETABSTRACTFromthestartpointofreviewinginternationalandChineseelectricitymarkethistories,wegetageneralvisionofSouthernelectricitymarketanditsrulesoastomakethemasthebackroundandthebasefortheaftergoingdiscussion.Nuclearpowerplantstakeuseoftheenergyfromthenucleatefission.Theradioactivitygoingoutwiththefissionmakesnuclearoperatorshavetobecautioustoitwhetherthemarketiscompetitiveornot.Thatistheissueofnuclearsafety.Tokeeptheeconomicopearationofnuclearpowerunitsanditsfuel,thenuclearunitsneededtobekeptonfullpowergenerationratherthanlongtimedeviationtotheratingpower.Thenuclearunitsinelectricitymarkethavetofacethepressureofthebusiness.Theymustprovethattheyareeconomicallycompetitive,helpfulinenvironmentprotectingandcleancomparedtofirepowerunits.Fornuclearpowerunits’quotingstrategyneedstobebasedoncost.Afteranalysisoftheelementsofthecostofnuclearpowerunits,ageneralcostfunctionofthenuclearpowerunitscouldbeevolvedontheirhistorycostdatabase.Atechnicalriskfactortogiveapenaltyofthecostforthesakeofnuclearsafetyandabusinessriskfactortogiveanamendmenttothecostarecalculatedintothegeneralcostfunction.Thenuclearpowerunitsgettheirdifferentspecificcostfunctionfortheirdifferentoperatingmodels.Thenuclearopearatorscouldgivethequotationbasedonthefunctions.AccordingtoSounthernelectricitymarkettradingrules,thenuclearoperatorcouldgettheiroperatingmodelwhichisaimedtooptimizationofthenuclearoperators’benefits.Aftercomparingalltheopearatingmodels,theconclusioncanbemadethatthefullpoweroperationmodelisthebestoptiontothegovernmentandallparticipantsoftheelectricitymarketiftheappropriateprofitcouldbegivenunderthepolicyofthegovernmentorthemarketrules.SHANGHAIJIAOTONGUNIVERSITYDISSERTATIONABSTRACTПSomefurtherresearchshouldbeonthecostfuctionfornuclearpowerunits,thetechnicalriskfactorandthebusinessriskfactorratherthanonlybasedontheexperienceofthenuclearoperators.KEYWORDS:SouthernelectricitymarketNuclearpowerplantCompetitionStrategyGenerationcostOnlineElectricitypriceTechnicalriskfactorBusinessriskfactor200906202009620200962011.12002200820087[7]200911~263224.67%8.56%20092009211CPR-1000EPR160(2005-2020)[6]220082020670034001.270808090901.2.1,3A.19891989(Pool)199042000420004200543(NETA)20054NETA(BETTA:BritishElectricityTradingandTransmissionArrangements)BETTABETTAB.ISORTO1978(FederalEnergyRegulationCommissionFERC)19968888894PJMCAPJM8(20%)FERC4PJM-ISO(StandardMarketDesignSMD)PJMPJM(PX-PowerExchange)PX(MCP-MarketClearPrice)ISO(IndependentSystemOperator)ISO(AncillaryServices)PXISOPXISO(UDCUtilityDistributionCompany)ISO2000~2001C.51.2.2801998200020021152411200320032172005200451820041220053.520063062005102820051121200642628320061220267600MW1.05[35]1.320093(2005-2020)20207000300072.1199320021220051121[42]2007722[2005]185200712252008()()2.1.1[44]83()(5500h)15%40%60%20092008--20202.1.2[46]2007829(4()25)7226.74GW2005113313.20GW()43%20061113692.1.3,,,2.1.420081214611.285.424.841.025.0511.445.584.841.024.7920.08447.63/MWh509.5410/MWh410.38/MWh295.11/MWh540/MWh220/MWh26.18418.54/MWh448.19/MWh410.38/MWh295.11/MWh540/MWh220/MWh1.861.400.46319.62347.63/MWh1.70510.36/MWh2.1.51412()[45]34112.22.2.12.2.2[45]taker,12maker,[14]632262.22.2.12.2.1.1511311234123/4/567892.2.1.2142.2.1.32.2.22.2.2.15500154060505081000/152.2.2.2121010001600100010001140114011401200140016001600100011401140114012001400160016001600,1600162.2.2.3100010001200140016001400120016002.2.2.42.2.2.5P=P-P2-1PPP1.PP=P+P2-2PP172.PP=P+P(1K(1K+P+P+P2-3P=PK(1K2-4K=1-(1K)(1K2-5PP()()P()()PPK%K%()()K%()()3.1.()()Q1Q2a.Q1(1-K%)Q2Q2(1-K%)Q2b.Q1(1-K%)Q2Q1Q1(1-K%)2.P=P+P22-52.2.320044[48]18603020102.32.3.12.3.1.1PP=P–P/(1-K%)2-6P2.3.1.2P=P-P2-7P;PPP1-K%P(1-K%-P2-8192.3.220092.4MarketClearingPriceMCP[21][25][34]2.4.1(MCP)MCP202.4.22(payoffmatrix)(oligopoly)CournotStackelberg(supplyfunctionmodel)[49][50],[51][52]Cournot21[35]2.4.3[3][54]2.4.4[55]22[56]2.55233.1.100100CPR1000CPR1000EPR65IIAP10003.2.3.2.1.10020080.3Hz22421M310234352905MW615.5Mpa73108GR91810R72/12.13cm11RR124522512G60/12.13cm131/143/153/163/171/183/192/202/211/22//65%232/243000rpm50Hz2526KV25261000MW272829418KV/26KV525/26KV3/3026KV/6.6KV2/31220KV/6.6KV2/3.2.2.1.76%~100%Pn2.1005%Pn/min(Pn)50MWe/min9E9F3%Pn/h263.3.3.3.3.1./75%/27/1Fig.1Nuclearelectricitypowercostelements3ExelonExelon20052006(/)1.2951.2981.3031.356(/255.1758.66(/2144.2134.13122.33125.09(/29.0529.27(/)0.3970.370.392(/)0.3970.370.392(/238.4732.803.3.2.28448abb/a60098255618.491465.792.64%8.129%00053480644.963173.813.94%1.686%600131185559.38123.864.38%11.820%600452110478.557581.786.86%6.390%600769113057.16100.715.40%1.430%600979115656.534293.313.71%7.710%600644115970.127371.456.36%9.980%600116116892.088319.687.12%1.760%600995126316.116444.825.10%13.100%001896206726.965649.982.73%-10.400%600505163816.227274.874.44%45.200%600719169666.624693.142.77%2.730%600101198267.9723138.3811.67%-28.360%600578209748.7910133.544.83%8.640%60096