Ipad之高盛深度分析报告

July13,2010TheriseoftheiPadandtablets:AssessingwinnersandlosersintheglobalTMTecosystemResearchReportApplemasters“5Cs”withtheiPad,creatingadevicedistinctfromPCs&previoustabletsRelativetotraditionalPCsandpasttablets,weseeApple’siPadecosystemasuniquein5keyways,whichwecallthe“5Cs”:(1)Consumption:theiPadfocusesoninformationconsumptionversusproduction;(2)Content:theiPadistightlyintegratedwithcontent;(3)Connected:theiPadis“alwaysconnected”;(4)Constantoperation:theiPadisan“instanton”devicewithall-daybatterylife;(5)Commerce:Apple’secosystemensuresthatconsumersarealways“readytobuy.”Proprietaryconsumersurveysuggestsmeaningfulnet/notebookcannibalizationWeconductedasurveyof1,000USconsumerstogaugeattitudestowardtheiPadandtablets.Ourmaintakeaways:(1)asignificantnumberofconsumersseetabletsasviablereplacementstoPCs;(2)costremainsthesinglelargestbarriertotabletadoption;and(3)consumersviewPCbrandsasbetterpositionedthanhandsetbrands.Asfortheenterprise,oursurveyof90hedgefundCTOsshowedasimilartrend,withabout70%expectingtoreplacesomenotebookswithtabletsinthenexttwoyears.AssessingtheimpactonthePCecosystemBasedonouranalysisofthetabletmarketweexpect:(1)16mntabletsin2010and35mnin2011,(2)tabletsalestobegintoimpactthenotebookmarketin2011,withabout40%oftabletsalesbeingcannibalistictonotebooksornetbooks(and95%comingoutofnetbooksinthefirstyear).WinnersandlosersfromthetablettransitionPrimarywinners:(1)Apple,fromitsleadershippositionwiththeiPadandcorrespondingprofitpool,(2)ARM,asweexpectmosttabletstobedesignedwithlow-power,ARM-basedchips,(3)componentvendorswithsignificantiPadcontentincludingSamsung,Infineon,Broadcom,Linear.Secondarywinners:HonHai,Murata,Citrix,Lam,Qualcomm,SanDisk,SBAComm.,CrownCastle,Syniverse,mediacompanies,SaaSapps,CDNs.Primarylosers:(1)Microsoft,giventheimpactoflostWindowssalesanditslackofacompetitivetabletresponse,(2)IntelandAMD,astheysufferlostunitvolumestoARM-basedcompetitors,(3)HDDmakers,Marvell,LSIgiventhemovetosolidstatestoragefromharddrivesintablets.Secondarylosers:Micron,Acer,ASUSTeK,Barnes&Noble,RadioShack,BestBuy.JamesCovello(212)[e-mail]&Co.JamesSchneider,Ph.D.(917)[e-mail]&Co.SarahFriar(415)[e-mail]&[e-mail](Asia)L.L.C.DaikiTakayama+81(3)[e-mail].,Ltd.MatthewJ.Fassler(212)[e-mail]&Co.JamesMitchell,CFA(212)[e-mail]&Co.SimonF.Schafer+44(20)[e-mail]onalTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.doesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertification,seetheendofthetext.OtherimportantdisclosuresfollowtheRegACcertification,orgoto渐飞研究报告-:TechnologyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2TableofContentsWhathasAppledonedifferentlywiththeiPad?Designingfor“5Cs”ofuserexperience4 Weseespecificwinnersandlosersthatcanbeattributedtothe“5Cs”ofuserexperience5 SpecifichardwareandsoftwarechoicesallowAppletotakeadifferentpathwiththeiPad6 TheiPadcoulddrivemeaningfulshiftsinindustryprofitability—justliketheiPhone8 ProprietaryconsumersurveysuggestssignificantpotentialforcannibalizationoftraditionalPCs9 Ourmodelassumes40%cannibalizationfromtablets;netbooksarebeingimpactedmost21 ImpactonSoftware:NegativeforMSFT,positiveforCRM,CTXS,SFSF,TLEO,VMW25 ImpactontheTaiwanOEM/ODMsupplychain:iPadfoodchainshouldbenefit,whilenetbooksuppliersshouldsuffer38 ImpactonJapanTechnology:PositiveforMurata,negativeforJapanesePC/HDDvendors40 ImpactonEntertainmentsector:Stillearly,butseemoreopportunitiesthanthreats42 ImpactonInternet:Amazonshouldstillbeabletotakeshareinbooks44 ImpactonRetail:NegativeforBarnes&NobleandRadioShack,lesssoforBestBuy45 ImpactonTelecomServices:PositiveforTowers—wefavorSBAComm.,CrownCastle48 ImpactonITServices:PositiveforSyniverse49 Global Contributing AnalystsSoftwareComm TechSarah Friar415‐249‐[e-mail] Jankowski, CFA415‐249‐[e-mail] R. Bingham415‐249‐[e-mail] Park415‐249‐[e-mail] Withers, CFA415‐249‐[e-mail] D. Lee212‐902‐[e-mail] Consulting & Outsourcing; Transaction ProcessorsJames Covello212‐902‐[e-mail] C. Quinteros Jr.415‐249‐[e-mail] Schneider, Ph.D.917‐343‐[e-mail] T. Williams212‐357‐[e-mail] F. Schafer44‐20‐7552‐[e-mail] Lin212‐934‐[e-mail] Kotlarsky212‐357‐7956kate