AutofactsFAPPresentation100901Excerpts（英文版）

Asia-PacificAutomotiveOutlook2©2001PricewaterhouseCoopersLLP.Allrightsreserved.UpsideScenario:Economicgrowthscontinues,infrastructureimproves,anddemandfornewvehiclesincreases.Successfulimplementationofregionaltradeblocsandstablegovernmentsallowfortheconsolidationofoperationsacrosstheregionandtherationalizationofduplicateandnon-competitiveoperations,allowingefficiencytoaccompanygrowth.DownsideScenario:Asia’seconomicstimulibackfireandtheregionfallsvictimtoanothereconomiccrisis.Tradeblocsbreakdownreinforcingbarriersbetweenmarkets.Politicalupheavalspossible,perpetuatingthevolatilityoftheregion.Worstcasescenario:Large-volumeassemblybecomesviableonlyinthelargestofmarkets,newforeigninvestmentbecomesunlikelyduetoregionalinstability.Significantpartsof1990sautoinvestmentsproveunsustainableinthelongrun.Asia-PacificBusinessEnvironmentAsia-Pacific,despiteitschallenges,remainsundoubtedlythelargestgrowthpotentialregionintheworld•Asiaiswitnessingstrong,butfragile,recoverydependentontheabilitytoexportandmaintaineconomicandpoliticalstability•However,itremainsvulnerabletoaftershocksfollowingthe1997/98economiccrisissincerecoveryisbasedonunsupportedloans•TheweakeningUSeconomywilldirectlyaffectprofitlevelsinAsiaastheUSisamajordestinationforexportsFuturegrowthliesinemergingAsia-Pacificmarkets•China/Indiadomesticdemandcontinuestogrowspurredbyagrowingmiddle-class•SuccessofAFTAwillallowforincreasedinter-regionalbusinessamongASEANmembers•SouthKorea’sgrowingdomesticdemandandincreasedexportsarekeytoitsgrowthAsia-Pacific-RegioninFocusEmergingfromanearcripplingeconomiccrisistheproverbialtigerisdonelickingitswoundsandisreadytoroarSignificantmarketgrowthpotentialPoliticalinstabilityDiverseinter-regionalmarketconditionsEconomicuncertaintycontinuestolinger3©2001PricewaterhouseCoopersLLP.Allrightsreserved.Asia-PacificLightVehicleAssembly&Capacity12,000,00014,000,00016,000,00018,000,00020,000,00022,000,00024,000,00026,000,00028,000,0001990199219941996199820002002200420062008Asia-PacificMarketOutlookAsia-PacificExcessCapacity&Utilization2,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,00010,000,00012,000,000199019931996199920022005200840%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%%UtilizationExcessCapacityUtilizationAsiaisseeingstrong,butfragile,recovery:dependentonabilitytoexportandmaintaineconomicandpoliticalstabilityExcessCapacityUnitsUnitsAssemblyCapacity4©2001PricewaterhouseCoopersLLP.Allrightsreserved.PotentialGlobalRepercussionsofTerroristAttacksEuropeDirect:exportstoUScriticaltoGermanautomakers,withweaker$hurtingrepatriationevenatstablevolumesIndirect:overallweakerregionalmacroenvironmentduetolowerconsumerconfidenceandreducedexportstoUS,confirmingrecessionarypressuresAsiaPacificDirect:exportstoUScriticaltoJapanese&Koreanautomakers,withweaker$hurtingrepatriationevenatstablevolumesIndirect:overallweakerregionalmacroenvironmentduetoreducedoverallexportstoUS,exertingrecessionarypressuresSouthAmericaDirect:limitedimpactIndirect:globaleconomicweaknesslikelytounderminealreadyfragileregionalmacroenvironmentDirect:automotivetradeimpactIndirect:macroeconomic&otherimpacts5©2001PricewaterhouseCoopersLLP.Allrightsreserved.Asia-PacificeconomicgrowthremainsdependentonexportsandhenceonthecontinuedeconomicvitalityofNorthAmerica.Asignificantdownturn,especiallyintheUS,wouldhaveadirectnegativeeffectontheregion.TerroristAttacks’EffectonAsia-PacificAutomotiveIndustryBaselinescenario:Asiagrowthisflatfrom2000to2001,duetopreviouslyexpectedcontinueddeclineinJapanandslightdecreaseinoutputfromSouthKorea•Overallregionalgrowthreturnstoaconservative3.5%in2002Downsidescenario:ifasignificantdeclineinUSmarketoccursin2002duetoweakeningeconomicconditions,expectedAsia-Pacificgrowthin2002coulddisappearduetoreducedUSimportdemandandasetbackinAsianeconomicrecoverytrends•DropinvalueofthedollarmayremoveKoreanandJapaneseexchangerateadvantage,impactingprofitabilityforAsianautomakersandthreateningthemarketopportunitiestheirpriceadvantagehasgiventhemHowever,KoreanmarketshareinNAmarketcouldincreaseifeconomicconditionsgetworseinnearterm(nextsixmonthsandbeyond)aslowercost,highvalueofferingsfromHyundai-Kiabecomehigheronconsumers’needtobuyversuswanttobuylistDriversofpositiveAsianmarketgrowthretainsomeindependencefrompotentialUSspillover•ChinaWTOentryinlate2001willincreaseintra-regionalexportgrowthopportunitiestoChinabeginningin2002-2003,althoughlimitedbylikelyChinesegovernmentwillingnesstoincurWTOsanctionstoprotectlocalindustry•ASEANeconomicgrowthandfullimplementationofAFTAholdpromiseforlocalautomotiveindustriesManymanufacturerswillberollingoutregionalmanufacturingplanstotakeadvantageofreducedprotectivetariffs•Still,theimproving,yetstillshakyemergingmarketeconomiesareverymuchatriskifglobaleconomyfalters6©2001PricewaterhouseCoopersLLP.Allrightsreserved.CountryCTG,2000-2008-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%ChinaSouthKoreaIndiaThailandOtherMalaysiaTaiwanAustraliaJapan%ofGrowthAsia-PacificLightVehicleAssemblyGrowthcomingfromeverythingbuttraditionalmainstayofJapan...…asChinatakesanincreasinglyimportant,andpotentiallydestabi