条件价值评估法的发展与应用

18320036ADVANCEINEARTHSCIENCESVol.18No.3Jun.,2003:100128166(2003)0320454210X1,2,2(1.,730000)(2.,730000):,(CVM)CVM,CVM,(WTP),CVM,:;;;(CVM);(WTP);(WTA);:X196:A(),,,Davis[1]1963(CVM)CVM,CVM1,,,(CVM),,(willingnesstopay,WTP)(willingnesstoacceptcompensation,WTA)WTPWTA,(CVM),,(CVM),[25],10X:2003201228;:200320222413:(:40235053);.:(19642),,,,.E2mail:[e-mail][1]19632070,CVM[6,7]1979,(WRC)CVM,CVM(),(USArmyCorpsofEngineering)(USBureauofReclamation)CVM[8]1986,CVM[2,8,9]1992,(NOAA)2KennethArrowRobertSolow(Blue2RibbonPanel),CVM,CVM[2,811],:CVM,WTP(referendumapproach);()[2,811]CVM2080CVM,9020,CVM[12],,1999,650,CVM(choiceexperiment)(conjointanalysis)(contingentranking)(contingentrating),(TravelCostMethod,TCM)(HedonicPricingMethod,HPM),CVM40,CVM,,,Mitchell[9],2060CVM208020,CVM120Carson[13],40CVM20002001,2090()CVM500,,,Randall[7]1974CVM,,CVM,Loomis[14],Jorgensen[15],CVM,CVMCVM2090,CVM,CVM,(),,,,CVM2CVM2[4,16,17]:(UV)(instrumentalvalue);(Non2useValue,NUV)/(PassiveUseValue,PUV)(intrinsicvalue)(DirectUseValue,DUV)(IndirectUseValue,IUV),()()/5543:(ExistenceValue,EV)(BequestValue,BV)(OptionValue,OV)(Quasi2OptionValue,QOV)(),(DUVIUV);,[4]/,(re2vealedpreference,RP)(statedpreference,SP)[4,16,17](surrogate)(TCM);(HPM);(MarketCostMethod),(ReplacementCostMethod)(Defen2sive2ExpenditureMethod);(BenefitTrans2ferMethod,BTM)[4,1618](1),1Fig.1Classificationofnon2marketvaluationmethods,(CVM)(ChoiceExperiment,CE)[4](ConjointAnalysis,CA)(ChoiceModelling,CM)(ContingentRanking,CR)(ContingentRating,CR)(PairedCompari2son,PC)[4](1),,,,(),,CVMCM[24]CVM,CVM,contingent65418(WTP),(WTA),,WTAWTP[4,19,20],CVM[2,3,5,20]:,x(),q(),:u(x,q)()yp,:maxu(x,q),pixiy:xi=hi(p,q,y),i=1,2,3,n,:v(p,q,y)=u[h(p,q,y),q],,,,p,y,qq0q1,,u0=v(p,q0,y)u1=v(p,q1,y),q1q0,:u1=v(p,q1,y)u0=v(p,q0,y):v(p,q1,y-C)=v(p,q0,y)C,qq0q1,CVMWTP,WTP()WTPCVM:;;WTPWTA;/3,,,(paymentvehicle)WTPWTA,[2,4],,(contingentvaluation,CV)CVM(biddinggame)[1,7],WTP(ContinuousCV)(DiscreteCV)(2)(iterativebiddinggame)(open2endedquestionformat,OE)()(paymentcard,PC)3,,WTP,WTP,,WTPWTP,,,,,[2](unanchoredpay2mentcard)(anchoredpaymentcard)[2],;,,,7543:2WTPFig.2ElicitationtechniquesforWTPincontingentvaluationstudy(closed2endedquestionformat,CE),(dichotomouschoices,DC)(Dissonance2minimizing,DM)CVM,,(DC),WTP,WTPBishop[21]1979CVM,Hane2manne[22,23]NOAACVM(Blue2RibbonPanel)CVM[2,4,811]2090,(DC)CVM[24,14,2427],(DC)(single2bound)(referendum)[24,21](double2bound)(referendum)[24,28](triple2bound)[29,30](referendum)2CVM[24],,;,Hoehn[31],,,,,,(probabilityofpayingcurve)[2]4CVM,,,CVM,,,/,CVM(CM)85418,CVM,[25,9,32,33]:,CVM,(CM)[4],,1CVM[25,9,32,33]1Table1Possiblebiasesincontingentvaluationstudyandtheirsolutions(Hypotheticalbias),,30,;;,(Paymentvehiclebias)()WTP,,;,(Startingpointbias)CVM,WTP,(Strategicbias),,(outlyingbids,5%10%)(Informationbias),(Non2responsebias)CVM,()(CV,70%,40%60%)(yes2sayingbias)CV,(Protestresponsebias)0;(15%)(Part2wholebias),(Embeddingeffect)WTPWTP,(Ordereffects),,(Lengthofstaybias),130(Interviewerbias),(Surveymodebias),;,:123();1(1);9543:5,WTP,CVM[2,23],WTP,,WTP,WTP(3),WTP(),,,WTP,,,ProbitLogit2[2,23,14,27](3)3WTPFig.3Contingentvaluationdataestimationmethodscorrespondedtoelicitationmethods,Hanemann[22,23],ProbitLogit:Prob()=1-{1+exp[B0-B1(X)]}-1(1),B0B1LogitProbit,XWTP,Hanemann[23,34](1)WTP:E(WTP)=(1/B1)ln(1+expB0)(2),B1,B0;,B0WTP,Park[35]6,206070(CVM),(),,,CVM(CM)/208090,CVM,,,CVM,CVM06418,CVM,,CVM,,20CVM,CVMCVMCVM,[3640],,,,CVM,,(References):[1]DavisRK.Recreationplanningasaneconomicproblem[J].NaturalResourcesJournal,1963,(3):2392249.[2]LoomisJB,WalshRG.RecreationEconomicDecisions:ComparingBenefitsandCosts(2nd)[M].VenturePublishingInc,1997.[3]BatemanIJ,WillisKG,eds.ValuingEnvironmentalPreferences:TheoryandPracticeoftheContingentValuationMethodintheUS,EU,andDevelopingCountries[M].NewYork:OxfordUniversityPress,1999.[4]Asafu2AdjayeJ.EnvironmentalEconomicsforNon2economists[M].Singapore:WorldScientificPublishingCoPteLed,2000.[5]BjornstadDJ,KahnJR,eds.TheContingentValuationofEnviron2mentalResources:MethodologicalIssuesandResearchNeeds[M].Cheltenham:EdwardElgarPublishingLimited,1999.[6]AnthonyF,KrutillaJ.Determinationofoptimalcapacityofresource2basedrecreationfacilities[J].NaturalResourcesJournal,1972,(12):4172444.[7]RandallA,IvesB,EastmanC.Biddinggamesforvaluationofaesthet2icenvironmentalimprovements[J].JournalofEnvironmentalEco2nomicsandManagement,1974,1:1322149.[8]LoomisJB.ContingentvaluationmethodologyandtheUSinstitutionalframework[A].In:BatemanIJ,WillisKG,eds.ValuingEnviron2mentalPreferences:TheoryandPracticeoftheContingentValuationMethodintheUS,EUandDevelopingCountries[C].NewYork:Ox2fordUniversityPress,1999.6132627.[9]MitchellDC,CarsonRT.UsingSurveystoValuePublicGoods:TheContingentValuationMethod[M].WashingtonDC:ResourcesfortheFuture,1989.[10]ArrowK,SolowR,PortneyP,etal.ReportoftheNOAApaneloncontingentvaluation.ReporttotheGeneralCounciloftheUSNation2alOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration[M].WashingtonDC:ResourcesfortheFuture,1993.[11]BatemanIJ,LangfordIH,TurnerRK,etal.Elicitationandtrun2cationef