电力市场下二滩水电厂应对策略研究

上海交通大学硕士学位论文电力市场下二滩水电厂应对策略研究姓名：王羽申请学位级别：硕士专业：电气工程指导教师：蒋传文;陶卫国200609016[l1]33020067-8StrategyResearchforErtanHydropowerPlantinPowerMarketAbstractErtanHydroelectricPlantbelongstoErtanHydroelectricDevelopmentCorporation's(EHDC).ThegrosscapacityofErtanis3,300MW,wellaheadofallotherhydroprojectsinChinawhichhavebeinoperationin20century.ErtanHydroelectricPlanthasexperienceddifficultyinmanagmentatthebeginningofoperation,andmadegreatprogressinelectricsaleandelectricitypricebalanceinrecentyearswhichshowsacontinuedimprovement.Atthesametime,withthedevelopementofStateGridreform,powermarketinsixelectricareashavegreatlybuilt.TheMiddleChinapowermarketwhichErtanbelongstowillmakesimulatintopertaioninearly2006.TheMiddleChinapowermarketistheonlyonethatrequiresHydroelectricPlant'sbidding.Tofacethisriskitisimportanttomakebiddingstrategy.Thispaperincludesfourparts.Firstly,itdescripespowermarket'ssituationandspecificity.Secondly,itfocusesonhowdohydroelectricplantpaticipatepowermarketanditsnecessary,feasibility,aswellasproblems.ThirdlythepaperstudiesstrategyofErtantoadaptthepowermarket.thefourthpart,thepaperstudiedthebiddingstrategyofspottransaction,expectedthemarketclearingpricemethod.Usingfuzzyexponentsmoothpriceexpectingmodelandlinear-movingautoregressionmodel,marketclearingpricehasbeenexpected.Withtheexpectedthemarketclearingpricemodle,usingintelligentoptimization9andevolutionaryprogrammingmethodthepapersolvesthemodlethenfindsthepricestrategy.OnthebasisoftheMiddleChinapowermarket,thepaperstudiedthebiddingstrategyofErtan,whichisimportanttotheErtanHydroelectricPlant,aswellasallthehydroelectriccorporations.Keywords:Ertan,powermarket,biddingstrategy20069132006913200691311.119871991919988200012285.5330555810017020%58m334m390%219982000211231667.550.383.819992000250032002001200320031451.2[5]20801.2.1[5]-[7]10%1-131-1Fig.1-1MarketstructureinEngland&WalesCEGBNGCNPPGNE2530%IPP12REC19981999OFGEMDGESPowerPoolPoolPoolPPPPSPPoolCFDEFAPool[6]NGCNPPGNEIPPPowerPoolRECRECREC412NGCNGC3NGC1.2.2[5]199019915NationalGridManagementCouncilNGMC1.NationalMarketManagementCompanyNationalCodeofConductAdministrationCompany2.1-251-2Fig.1-2MarketstructureinAustralia18500MW30MW210MW34310MW12861.2.3[5][14]18827100901.11998“”6220001320021229111172.(1)(2)(3)10%-20%(4)CFD(5)1.319988[1,2]-,,,[34]92.12.1.1(AGC)2.1.2pCWTQs10Qs=S(pCWT)QdpIUQd=D(pIU2.1.31.2.3.2.1.4()112.1.51.2.3.4.122.22.2.1l.19491985302.19853.1997119982002132.2.2200231.19981121015142.3.20023(1)5422000511520%3200200011(2)(3)162.32.3.1129.83.82217200460008725346652597319306041.8425958.2344050022050050050050050050020043346524.5%2004400612.91%301713.3%51749.87%20040.41/0.28/0.45/0.38/0.07/0.31/0.25/0.06/2004()/0.410.380.450.430.440.390.440.280.290.290.300.310.250.31180.140.090.160.130.130.140.132.3.2201020202.3.32.3.41985%15%2.3.515%2.42.4.1120232.4.2212.4.385%10%2.4.4223.13.1.12004731741.8%58.2%888380%60%55371010494867.61509343930.4969.5116.15%83.85%25.94%74.06%,32.62%67.38%7.3192.6964.2%35.821.9978.0118410015234280(175)14003.1.212543418433914455200425475103.1.3241630043%200425%89%38%201080%14528.3kW21.412075.4kW3080%2726%85%22780%13%0.8%2004141(83.2)253.23.2.13.2.226200212264.75.4%15%0.5%/0.3180.20990.2880.20823270.3690.2650.3160.1550.3211-50.1950.3570.16870.3120.21923.2.31231012842272119.7%58.04.9%9.9%7.5%5293.2.415%85%12380%15-20%4303.2.585%2313.33.3.1200420201322343.3.23.3.2.167%19992004331powerpool10%90%96220011120041231591078kW563.3kW514.7kW101.27kWh0.168/10.5211kW4%0.01/kWh3421999720041999200469.39kWh69.39kWh27752001730.88kWh200338.37%3.051234352%3.3.2.22001200258.083.5%2003136.675.3%2004134.104.4%200150501209025015%363.3.31010200431150949.3%30.49%15-20%85%15%0427.30%0526.6%264.75%3.3.4370.3510.3690.3570.3210.3180.3120.0150.3160.2880.1690.265/35/1003.4383.4.1K39KKK1KK1()K1PLOLPKKK3.4.2()()403.4.3ab413.4.43.4.520421434.1200254.2444.34.4454.51,,,,,23456,,46,7,,,,,,,,,.,89101112134.6474.6.10.040.09/(kWh)0.19/(kWh)4.6.24.6.34.6.44896(15min)965.1()()()():;;;5.1.149()5.1.222(CournotStackelberg(supplyfunctionmodel):5.1.35.1.450;;5.2515.2.1a)RBBRx∈∃1)(=xuB)(xuBxBxα10≤≤αα],[)(3)(1αααbbB=)(3)(1,ααbb)(3)(3)(1)(1''',αααααbbbba≥≤⇒],[)(3)(1abbBαα=],[)(3)(1'''ααbbBa=''ααααBB⊂⇒b)),,(321bbb321bbb≤≤321bbb==),,(321bbbB=≥≤−−≤−−=33223321121100)(bxbxbbbxbbxbbbbxbxxuB5-152]1,0[∈∀αα])(,)([],[233121)(3)(1αααααbbbbbbbbB−−−+==5-2c)),,(1111cbaB=),,(2222cbaB=),,(),,(2121212121212121ccbbaaBBccbbaaBB−−−=−+++=+2,1,,,0=∈+iRcbaiii21,BB),,(212121acbbcaP=),,(212121acbbcaG=+∈Rcba,,),,(cbaB=nnB),,(nnncbaP=tts),,(321sssst=1st2st3st),,(321αααα=1α2α3α)3,2,1](1,0[=∈iiα1+t1+ts),,))(,,(1(),,()1(3213213211sssxasxsttttααααααα−+=−+=+))1(,)1(,)1((3132221311sxsxsxsttttαααααα−+−+−+=+5-3txt),,(321sssst=53(1+t)5.2.2{}nyiikknx)(,111knykxkiknn≥=∑−=−5-4),2,1,(++=kkknxnnynynxnnnbaxyε++=ba,nεnynxny)(nyE)(nyEnynyny^baxynn+=^ba,ba,^^,ba^^^bxayn+=m∑−=−−−102^)(miininyy^^,ba−==xaybLLaxxxy^^^54∑∑∑∑∑−=−−=−−=−−=−−−=−==−=−−=−=10101021010211)())(()(miinmiinmiinyymiininxymiinxxymyxmxyyLyyxxLxxL(5-5)5.2.32002412002420201520024210501001502002503