quantifying-movie-magic_research-studies

ReggiePanaliganSr.AnalyticalLead,Google,Media&[e-mail]withGoogleSearchJune2013It’sFridaynightandyou’rethinkingaboutseeingamovie.Yourthoughtprocessmightsoundalittlelikethis:What’sintheatersrightnow?What’sthatnewmoviemyfriendwasjusttalkingaboutacoupledaysago?ThattrailerIsawforanotherfilmafewweeksagolookedinteresting.AnothermoviereviewIreadsoundedpromising...whatshouldIsee?Whilethisparticularmomentintimemaycaptureaportionofthedecisionmakingprocess,itdoesn’tgiveustheentirestory.Moviegoersarenowmoreactivelydiscoveringandexploringtheirfilmoptions,andthistranslatestoalonger,moredeliberatemovieresearchtimeline.Onaverage,moviegoersconsult13sourcesbeforetheymakeadecisionaboutwhatmovietosee.1Thisactiveresearchandengagementisreflectedinsearchqueryvolumeaswell.Althoughthenumberoftitlesreleaseddeclined9%in2012vs.2011,2moviesearchesonGoogleareup56%inthissameperiod.Searchoffersanondemand,real-timesourceofinformationthatcanextendengagementwithpotentialmoviegoers.Byunderstandinghowandwhattheyaresearchingfor,wecanuncoveruniqueinsightsintomoviegoers’awarenessandintent.Inthispaper,wewilldiscusshowsearchquerypatternsandpaidclickscanhelpusinthequesttoquantify‘moviemagic,’andultimatelypredictboxofficeperformance.KeyInsightsIntroductionAndreaChenPrincipalIndustryAnalyst,Google,Media&[e-mail]|IndustryPerspectives+UserInsights11GoogleSocialResearchStudy.“UnderstandingtheRoleofSocialandSocialMediaintheShopper’sJourney,MovieTickets.”Dec.20122TheatricalMarketStatistics.MPAA2012• Thedecisiontoseeamovieisaveryhighlyconsideredresearchprocess.SearchesinthemoviecategoryonGoogleareup56%from2011to2012,signalinganincreaseindigitalengagementandappetiteformoreinformation.• Searchprovidesauniqueopportunityforfilmmarketerstoextendengagementwithpotentialmoviegoers.Byunderstandinghowandwhattheyaresearchingfor,weuncoveruniqueinsightintomoviegoerawarenessandintent.• Queryvolumeandpaidclickvolume–inconjunctionwithothermovie-relatedvariables(e.g.theatercounts)–canpredictafilm’sopeningweekendperformancewith92%accuracyandsubsequentweekendperformancewith90%accuracy.• Trailer-relatedsearchtrendsfourweeksoutfromamoviereleaseprovidestrongpredictivepowerforopeningweekendboxofficerevenue.TrailersearchvolumeonGooglecoupledwithboththefranchisestatusofthemovieandseasonalitycanpredictopeningweekendboxofficerevenuewith94%accuracy.• Since48%ofmoviegoersdecidewhatfilmtowatchthedaytheypurchasetheirticket,it’simportanttohaveacontinuedsearchpresencethroughopeningweekendandbeyond.13GoogleConsumerSurvey.“TheMoviegoerResearchProcess.”Mar.3,2013.Thequesttoquantify‘moviemagic’iscertainlynotanewconcept.Pre-releasefilmtrackinghasbeenaroundfordecades,however,traditionalapproacheshaverecentlycomeunderscrutiny.Withtheincreasingamountofinformationandmediainfluencesavailable,therearemanymorefactorsthatshouldbeconsidered.Inaddition,becausesomuchresearchisdonebeforemoviegoersmakethefinaldecisiontopurchaseaticket,itisimportanttolookatalltheintermediatesteps.I.TheQuesttoQuantify‘MovieMagic’GoogleWhitepaper|IndustryPerspectives+UserInsights2Whenitcomestoresearchinganewmovie,61%ofmoviegoersstatethattheyturntoonlineresources.Morespecifically,almosthalfaregoingonlineandsearchingforthisinformation.3Bylookingattheresearchprocessthroughsearch,weobtainamorespecificunderstandingofjusthowawareorhowstronglytheymaybeconsideringaparticulartitleovertime.Thesesearchpatternsarewhatrevealinformationaboutmoviegoerintentandhowitimpactstheboxoffice.+56%increasey/yinmovie-relatedGooglesearchesII.TheLinkBetweenGoogleSearchandBoxOfficeLet’sfirstestablishtheconnectionbetweensearchactivityandboxoffice.Ifsearchisareflectionofinterestandintent,onewouldexpectthatthemoremovie-relatedsearchactivityinagivenweekend,thebiggertheboxoffice.InlookingattheoverallweeklyboxofficereceiptsandweeklyqueryvolumeonGooglein2012,weobserveastronglinkbetweenthetwometrics(Figure1).Figure1|Comparisonof2012BoxOfficeIndexandFilm-RelatedSearchIndexJFMAMJJASONDMonthBoxOfficeIndexTotalFilmSearchIndexJFMAMJJASONDMonthBoxOfficeIndexNon-TitleFilm-RelatedSearchIndexMovie-TitleSearchIndex4keywordsinclude“[movietitle]”,“[movietitle]trailer”,“[movietitle]clips”,“[movietitle]cast”,“[movietitle]tickets”,“[movietitle]plot”,“[movietitle]reviews”,andothercommonvariantsrelatedtothesecategories5keywordcategoriesincludegeneralmovieterms(e.g.“newmovies”,“movieshowtimes”),theaterchainterms(e.g.,“regalshowtimes”,“carmiketheaters”),andonlinemovieticketservices(e.g.,“fandango”,“movietickets”)Anotherinterestingpatternappearsafterwesplittheoverallsearchindexintofilm-specifictitlekeywords4andgenericmovie-relatedkeywords5(Figure2).Film-specifictitlekeywordsspikeduringreleaseweekofmajortentpolefilms,suchasTheHungerGames,Avengers,andTheDarkKnight.Presumably,duetohigherawarenessandinterestlevelsinthesefilms,moviegoerstendtosearchforthespecifictitleinsteadofgeneralmovieinformation.Additionally,duringtraditionallyslowperiodsintheboxoffice,genericnon-titlekeywordsover-index,signalingmoviego