富营养化浅水湖泊藻源性湖泛的短期数值预报方法以太湖为例

J．LakeSci．2016284701-709DOI10.18307/2016.04022016byJournalofLakeSciences———*210008．a3da3d．20132014、73d80%．Numericalforecastingofshort-termalgae-inducedblackbloomineutrophicshallowlakeAcasestudyofLakeTaihuLIWeiQINBoqiangZHANGYunlin＆ZHUGuangweiStateKeyLaboratoryofLakeScienceandEnvironmentNanjingInstituteofGeographyandLimnologyChineseAcademyofSciencesNanjing210008P．Ｒ．ChinaAbstractInthispaperanattempttoforecastthealgae-inducedblackbloomineutrophicshallowlakewasdocumented．Takenchlorophyll-aconcentrationanddissolvedoxygenconcentrationastherepresentativevariablesathree-dimensionalcoupledhydro-dynamic-waterqualitynumericalmodelwasbuilt．Bycombiningcalculationandpredictionofthehydrologicalandmeteorologicalscenariosovertheensuing3daysthedynamicdistributionsofalgaeconcentrationanddissolvedoxygenconcentrationscenariosinLakeTaihuweresimulated．BlackBloomprobabilitieswerethenpredictedbyaforecastempiricalmodelthatincludedtheweightofalgalbiomassdissolvedoxygenconcentrationwindvelocityandweathercondition．Iftheprobabilitieswerelargerthan50%theareaofblackbloomshouldbecalculated．Themodelwasappliedtopredicttheoccurrencesoftheblackbloomofthenext3daysinLakeTaihufromApriltoSeptemberin2013and2014．Independentevaluationsfromboatsurveydatashowedthattheaccuracyofthesebloomforecastswasmorethan80%．KeywordsAlgae-inducedblackbloomnumericalmodelshort-termforecastshallowlakeLakeTaihu20、．“”、、“”1．1990s、2．20092014、11、4、5、10、631～6d17km2*41471401、2015DFG91980、2012ZX07101-01041230744．2015-03-182016-01-21．1980～[e-mail]．20162843-5．．6-111-24-512-17、、18-24．、、、．．Chl．aDO3d3dChl．aDO3d、．201320144103d．1．1-2、、、5241．YSI6600-V2YellowSpringInstrumentsUSAChl．a、DO、DO、、、．10～30cm1L、《》25．1Fig．1ThemonitoringsitesanddivisionofmainforecastingregionsofblackbloominLakeTaihu———7032Fig．2UnstructuredmeshesforLakeTaihu．63532．≈300m≈1000m．11246353Chl．a、DO．2Chl．aDO、、、、、3dChl．aDO3d．2．1σζt+Dux+Dvy+wσ=01uDt+u2Dx+uvDy+uwσ－fvD=－gDζx－gDρ0xD∫0σρdσ'()+σρDx[]+1DσKmuσ()+x2AmDux[]+yAmDuy+vx()[]2vDt+uvDx+v2Dy+vwσ+fuD=－gDζy－gDρ0yD∫0σρdσ'()+σρDy[]+1DσKmvσ()+xAmDuy+vx()[]+y2AmDvy[]3u、v、wx、y、σm/sζmD=h+ζmρkg/m3gm/s2fAmKm．．σ．N-S26．、27-28Ｒoe29．、．2．2DCt+DuCx+DvCy+ωCσ=xAHDCx()+yAHDCy()+σKHDCσ()+SK4704J．LakeSci．2016284C．CaSK、．CSK、、、．30-32．．20092011、、3d80%11．2．33dVx、VyVx、Vyx、ym/shttp∥．weather．com．cn/html/weather/101190201．shtml．2．43dChl．aDO、．≤2．6m/s、25℃5～7dDO≤2．0mg/L、33-34．、DO、F=f1N1t·f2V·f3Ｒ·f4N2t541．f1N1ttf2Vf3Ｒf4N2ttDO．．1Chl．a、DO、、Tab．1TheprobabilityvaluesofblackbloomscausedbyChl．aconcentrationDOconcentrationwindspeedandrainfallChl．a/μg/LfN1t/m/sfVfＲDO/mg/LfN2t＞60．01．01～20．3～3．31．0、1．01．01．050．00．933．4～5．40．9、0．92．00．840．00．845．5～7．90．8、0．84．00．620．00．658．0～10．70．70．76．00．410．00．45＞10．80．5、08．002．52km412342km25671．550%50%．3201320144103dChl．aDO7．382．———7053Fig．3SemiweeklymonitoringandforecastforthecyanobacteriaandblackbloominLakeTaihu2014612613156124．613、14152、22．3dChl．aDO3．42014612Chl．aDOFig．4DistributionofChl．aandDOconcentrationsinLakeTaihuon12June2014613152、、1fV=1．0fＲmax=1．0iChl．ai=25．2μg/LDOi=1．5mg/LfN1t=0．6fN2t=1．05iF=f1N1t·f2V·f3Ｒ·f4N2t=0．6．706J．LakeSci．201628463535560%3d．50%5～100．3×0．3/2=0．045km23d0．2～0．5km2．61315360%0．2～0．5km2．6130．4km2．52014613Fig．5ProbabilityofoccurrenceandtheforcastingareaofblackbloominLakeTaihuon13June201420132014822780%．220132014Tab．2TheevaluationoftheblackbloomsforecastinLakeTaihuduring2013and201420132014/d/d/%/d/d/%2/%9595100967578．189．1959296．8966365．681．2959397．9968184．491．2959296．8967881．389．1847589．310710710094．7847589．310710710094．7877383．91099385．384．6———7074、、、．、、．Chl．aDO、．、、、、、、、、DO、Chl．a、、、pH．、．53d3dChl．aDOChl．aDO3d．20132014、73d780%．61LuGuihuaMaQian．AnalysisonthecausesofformingblackwaterclusterinTaihuLake．AdvancesinWaterScience2009203438-442inChinesewithEnglishabstract．．“”．2009203438-442．2LuGuihuaMaQian．Monitoringandanalysis“BlackWaterAggregation”inLakeTaihu2009．JLakeSci2010224481-487inChinesewithEnglishabstract．DOI10．18307/2010．0402．．2009“”．2010224481-487．3YangMYuJLiZetal．TaihuLakenottoblameforWuxi’swoes．Science20083195860158．4NanjingInstituteofGeographyandLimnologyChineseAcademyofSciences．Onthecauseofcyanophytabloomandpollu-tioninwaterintakeareaandemergencymeasuresinMeiliangBayLakeTaihuin2007．JLakeSci2007194357-358inChinesewithEnglishabstract．DOI10．18307/2007．0401．．2007．2007194357-358．5ChenHesheng．BlackwateraggregationinYixinginshorewaterareaofLakeTaihu．AdvancesinScienceandTechnologyofWaterＲesources201131433-37inChinesewithEnglishabstract．．“”．201131433-37．6SarkarＲChattopadhayayJ．Occurrenceofplanktonicbloomsunderenvironmentalfluctuationsanditspossiblecontrolmechanism-mathematicalmodelsandexperimentalobservations．JournalofTheoreticalBiology2003224501-516．7HuWJrgensenSZhangF．Avertical-compressedthreedimensionalecologicalmodelinLakeTaihuChina．EcologicalModelling2006190367-398．8KongFanxiangMaＲuhongGaoJunfengetal．Thetheoryandpracticeofpreventionforecastandwarningoncyanobac-teriabloominLakeTaihu．JLakeSci2009213314-328inChinesewithEnglishabstract．DO