中日电子类产品产业内贸易现状及影响因素的实证分析(本

I摘要自上世纪60年代起，有关产业内贸易（Intra-industryTrade，IIT）的研究大量涌现，并在此基础上产生了新的贸易理论。长久以来，产业内贸易的研究重点是发达国家，但随着经济全球化的发展，发展中国家也逐渐开始重视产业内贸易的发展。中国和日本两国从经济上来看分别属于发展中国家和发达国家，双边贸易总额一直呈增长态势。现今，产业内贸易已经成为中日贸易的一个重要组成部分。本文以产业内贸易理论为基础，以电子类产品为切入点，运用G-L指数测量2000年-2011年间中日电子类产品的产业内贸易水平，并进一步测算出动态指数MIIT以及分类数据HIIT、VIIT。计算结果表明：中日间电子类产品产业内贸易总体水平较高，但仍以垂直型产业内贸易为主导。在此基础上，本文选取五个变量，即贸易不平衡指程度、人均收入水平、人均收入差异、市场规模以及市场规模差异，运用统计软件EVIEW3.1多元线性回归模型，考察各个变量对中日电子类产品产业内贸易的影响。实证结果表明：贸易不平衡程度的缩小对于产业内贸易总体水平、水平型产业内贸易以及垂直型产业内贸易的发展都是有利的；两国国民人均收入的普遍提高有利于电子类产品产业内贸易水平和水平型产业内贸易的发展，但若两国间国民人均收入差距扩大对产业内贸易水平造成负面影响；中日电子类产品市场规模的扩大会抑制产业内贸易的发展。本文最后，从政府和企业两个层面提出了促进中日双边电子类产品产业内贸易的对策建议。政府应该从促进经济发展、提高国民实际收入水平并加强国内产业结构的调整和优化升级入手，而企业在积极推行实施品牌战略的同时应当注重对人才的培养。关键词：电子类产品；产业内贸易；指数分析；影响因素IIAbstractSince1960s,thestudyonintra-industrytradebetweendevelopedcountrieshasappearedinvastamountofliteratures,formingthebasisforthenewtradetheory,whichhadlongbeenthefocusondevelopedcountries.Withthedevelopmentofinternationaltrade,intra-industrytradeisnolongerthedevelopmentformsofpatentsamongdevelopedcountries,developingcountrieshavegraduallybeguntopayattentiontothedevelopmentofintra-industrytrade.Nowadays,intra-industryhasbeenanimportantcomponentofthetradebetweenChinaandJapan.Thetheoryofintra-industrytradeinelectronicproductsasthestartingpoint,thispapermeasuresthelevelofintra-industrytradeonelectronicproductsbetweenChinaandJapanintheyears2000-2011withG-LIndex,thenestimateMIIT,HIITandVIIT.CalculationsindicatethatChinaandJapanelectronicproductshigheroveralllevelofintra-industrytrade,butstilldominatedbyverticalintra-industrytrade.Then,thispaperusesstatisticsthesoftwareeview3.1buildmodelempiricalanalysisofitsinfluencingfactors,andselectfivevariablestostudyindividualvariablestotalintra-industrytradeofelectronicproducts-horizontal,verticalintra-industrytrade,horizontalintra-industrytradeofeffect.Theresearchindicated:thedeepeningofthebilateraltradeimbalanceisnotconducivetothedevelopmentofIntra-industrytrade;generalincreaseinthelevelofpercapitaincomeofthetwocountriespromotesthedevelopmentofintra-industrytrade,butifnationalincomethereisawidegapbetweenthetwocountries,adverseimpactontheintra-industrytrade;differencesinmarketscaleexpansionandthesizeofthemarketmostofintra-industrytradedevelopment.Finally,thispaperbringsforwardthecountermeasuresuggestionabouttheintra-industrytradebetweenChinaandJapanfromtwoanglesofgovernmentandenterprise.Governmentshouldpromoteeconomicdevelopment,improvethelevelofrealincomeofresidentsandstrengthenthedomesticindustrialstructureadjustmentandoptimizingupgrading.Enterpriseshouldpromotestheimplementationofbrandstrategy,focusingonthecultivationoftalents.Keywords：Intra-industryTrade;Indexanalysis;InfluencingfactorIII目录摘要.................................................................................................................................................................IAbstract........................................................................................................................................................II目录..............................................................................................................................................................III中日电子类产品产业内贸易现状及影响因素的实证分析.........................................错误!未定义书签。一绪论..................................................................................................................................................3（一）研究背景...................................................................................................................................2（二）研究的目的及意义...................................................................................................................2（三）研究思路...................................................................................................................................2（四）主要研究方法...........................................................................................................................3二相关文献综述........................................................................................................................................4(一)相关概念介绍...............................................................................................................................4(二)国内外学者对中日间产业内贸易的研究...................................................................................4(三)小结...............................................................................................................................................6三中日电子类产品产业内贸易现状........................................................................................................8（一）中日电子类产品贸易进出口额分析........................................................................................8（二）中日电子类产品产业内贸易的GL指数分析.......................................................................11（三）中日电子类产品产业内贸易的MIIT指数分析...................................................................12（四）中日电子类产品产业内贸易的HIIT指数与VIIT指数分析..............................................13（五）小结.....................................