统计学的哲学思想以及起源与发展

ABSTRACTThereareanumberofstatisticalschoolswhichalwaysargueoverwhetheritisbettertoworkwiththisstatisticalindexorwithothers.Alotofpeoplewanttounitthemtogetherbutcanneversucceed.Inthispaper,anewideaofstatisticalPhilosophyhasbeenproposedbyusingtheeastphilosophy:yinyangwuxingtheory.Onthebaseofdiscussingstatisticaloriginationorsource,manydevelopingdirectionsororientationsaredemonstrated.:;;;;:,;,,,,,,2030,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,Stochastic(),,17,1645,DeMere(16071684)Pascal(16231662)Pascal(Fermat,16011665),Pascal,(DeRatiocinnicsinAleaLudo,),Huygens(16291695)James(Jakob)Bernoulli(16541705)deMoivre(16671754),18,,1819,deMere,,,17,,1662,Craunt(16201674),,1619,,,,,,,,,(),,25StatisticalResearch200412No.122004,,,,(,StatisticalInference),,1819,,,,,203040,Neyman(18941981),Pearson(18951980),Fisher(18901962),,Hotelling(18951973),,,,,,,,,,,,2,,,,,,,,,,,,:(1),,;(2),,;(3),,,,;(4),,;(5),,,,,,,,1.,,,,:??()???,:,?,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,35:2.Fiducial(),,,,,,Fisher,,:,,,,,Fisher,,A,,A,,AB,,BBA,A?B,A,,:AB,,A,Fisher,,,,,,,,,,,,,,203040,,,,,,3.Bayes,,,,,,,,:,,?,?:1/24:,,,,1/4,,,,,,1/3,,,,,1/2,,,,,,,,,,,Bayes,,Bayes21Bayes4.,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,45,5.,,,,,,,,,,,Wald(19021950),,,,,,,,,,,,,,(IT),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,:AB,BC,AC;Ac,CE,EA:,,,;,,[3]:,:::1.,,,,,,,?,,,:,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,55:,,,,2.,,,,,,,?,,:,::Kepler,Kepler,(Kepler100),,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,:COPSSPresi2dentsAward(COPSS:TheCommitteeofPresidentsStatisticalSociety),1979,1981,,200223,,(1983),(1987),(1993),(2000),30,60,11,(),(),()(InternationalChineseStatisticalAssociation),,,StatisticaSinica,1991,1992(InstituteforScientificInformation,ISI)(ScienceCitationIndex,SCI)(JournalCitationReports)(StatisticsandProbability),199244,(impactorfactor,IF),StatisticaSinica22,AnnalsoftheInstituteofStatisticalMathematics(24),ScandinauianJournalofStatistics(24),CanadianJournal65ofStatistics(26)SCI,StatisticaSinica1998,StatisticaSinicaSCI,ISI(CurrentContents)1997,SCI20,(1998),,,,,,?,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(,,),,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,:,96%,,,,,,,,??,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,21,,,,AB,BC,AC,,,,AB,BC,AC;AB,BC,AC;,75:,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,200491112,,,,17(16231687),,,1665,,G.(16061681),18,,,1863,;1867,;1890,,,,,19,1885,120,(ISI),::BanachPDESM85StatisticalResearch200412No.122004,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,?21[1].(StatisticaSinica)SCI..1998,10(1),2122.[2]...1993.[3]...2004.,,PDES:,,,,19989,,,,,,504249,50%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,200,1978,,,,,199312,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,95: