CNG质量管理手册

12IIIIIIIVVVIVII3I.I.4I.1I.15¾¾––capitalraising)capitalraising)––mergers&acquisitions)mergers&acquisitions)––corporaterestructuring)corporaterestructuring)––divestiture)divestiture)¾¾intrinsicvalueintrinsicvalue¾¾duediligenceduediligence6¾¾––––––––¾¾7I.2I.28¾¾DCFDiscountedCashFlowDCFDiscountedCashFlowComparableCompaniesAnalysis)ComparableCompaniesAnalysis)ComparableTransactionsAnalysisComparableTransactionsAnalysis9¾¾On-goingBusinessOn-goingBusiness••••BankruptBusiness)BankruptBusiness)••••10¾¾IndustryAnalysisIndustryAnalysis•••KeySuccessFactors)•••KeySuccessFactors)CompanyAnalysisCompanyAnalysis••SWOT•••SWOT•FinancialModelingFinancialModeling••••••IIIIIIIIIIII11¾¾DiscountedCashFlowDiscountedCashFlow••••••VVSensitivityAnalysisSensitivityAnalysis•SensitivityAnalysis•ScenarioAnalysis•SensitivityAnalysis•ScenarioAnalysisVIVIRealityCheckRealityCheck••••VIIVII12¾¾¾¾2527212530263540313545401525354555DCF:DCF:DCF:DCF:13II.II.14II.1II.115¾¾¾¾EnterpriseValueEnterpriseValueEVEVAssetValueAssetValueAVAV¾¾EquityValueEquityValue16¾¾PresentValue,PVPresentValue,PVDiscountRateDiscountRatert••••ttrPV)1(1+=••••••1711¾¾10010050508080150150rt1010NetPresentNetPresentValueValueNPVNPV0123(100.0)50.080.0150.010%10%10%10%(100.0)45.566.1112.7124.310%0123(100.0)50.080.0150.0(100.0)45.566.1112.7124.318NNrCrCrCPV++++++=1...112211PerpetuityPerpetuityGrowingPerpetuityGrowingPerpetuityAnnuityAnnuityrCPV=grCPV−=1rCrrCPVN×+−=)1(119II.2CAPMII.2CAPM20Risk&Return)Risk&Return)¾¾LossnCaptialGaidIncomeYielPPPPDPPPDrtttttttttt/11111+=−+=−+=+++++1111−−+=+++tttttPPPDr212)(11ˆttTtPrrTVar−∑×−===σ∑−×=TttrTr1121/¾¾2222222ABBAAAAAPσσσσ++=AA=rBB=r()BB=rE()A=ArEA=2AσBB=2σBAAB=2σA=AwB=Bw=PrBBAAPrwrwr+=)()()(BBAAPrEwrEwrE+=BA=ABρBAABABσσρσ=/2222¾¾DiversificationDiversification7070AA3030BB//A15.00%9.00%30.00%50.00%3.00%B18.00%16.00%40.00%50.00%16.50%7.75%27.84%(0%A,100%B)(10%A,90%B)(20%A,80%B)(30%A,70B)(40%A,60%B)(50%A,50%B)(60%A,40%B)(70%A,30%B)(80%A,20%B)(90A,10%B)(100%A,0%B)14.5%15.0%15.5%16.0%16.5%17.0%17.5%18.0%18.5%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%(0%A,100%B)(10%A,90%B)(20%A,80%B)(30%A,70B)(40%A,60%B)(50%A,50%B)(60%A,40%B)(70%A,30%B)(80%A,20%B)(90A,10%B)(100%A,0%B)14.5%15.0%15.5%16.0%16.5%17.0%17.5%18.0%18.5%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%AB0%100%40.00%18.00%10%90%36.86%17.70%20%80%34.00%17.40%30%70%31.48%17.10%40%60%29.39%16.80%50%50%27.84%16.50%60%40%26.91%16.20%70%30%26.66%15.90%80%20%27.13%15.60%90%10%28.27%15.30%100%0%30.00%15.00%23¾¾∑∑∑∑∑==≠===+==NiNiNijjijjiiiNiNjijjiPσσσσii=r()i=irEi=2iσjiij=2σi=iw=Pr∑==NiiiPrEwrE1)()(=)(PrENi,...,3,2,1=Nj,...,3,2,1=iw24MarkowitzMarkowitzII¾¾¾¾123N(TheFeasibleSet)(TheFeasibleSet)(EfficientFrontier)(EfficientFrontier)(MinimumVariancePortfolio)(MinimumVariancePortfolio)25MarkowitzMarkowitzIIII¾¾1122(EfficientFrontier)(EfficientFrontier)221126¾¾()=frE02==fσ=′2Pσ=w=)(PrE=2Pσ=′)(PrE)()1()()(PfPrEwrwErE−+=′/222)1(PPwσσ−=′PPwσσ)1(−=′/27CAPMCAPMII¾¾MMTangencyPortfolioTangencyPortfoliofrMMBBCCDDAAfr[]CapitalMarketLineCML[]CapitalMarketLineCML28CAPMCAPMII¾¾CMLCML()=MrECMLrE=)(PCMLP=2σ=2Mσ×+=)(PrEPMfMfPrrErrEσσ−+=)()(29CAPMCAPMIIII2,/),(MMiifMifirrErrσσββ=−+=¾¾CAPMCAPMββfr1.01.0Mr00SecuritiesMarketLine,SMLSecuritiesMarketLine,SML30¾¾CAPMCAPM************3133Eβ¾¾551.1441.144EβS&P500CocaCola12/94459.2701/95470.422.43%1.94%02/95487.393.61%4.76%03/95500.712.73%2.50%04/95514.712.80%3.10%05/95533.43.63%6.02%06/95544.752.13%4.67%07/95562.063.18%1.74%08/95561.88-0.03%-2.10%09/95584.414.01%7.39%10/95581.5-0.50%4.17%11/95605.374.10%5.39%12/95615.931.74%-1.98%S&P5000.0031.144RSquare0.3320.576Eβ**RSquare*CAPM**RSquare*CAPMEβ32Eβ¾¾BusinessRiskBusinessRiskFinancialRiskFinancialRisk¾¾EEDDEββAβAβEβDβDEADEEDEEβββ+++=AEDEDEβββββββ==−+=0)(DAAEED33¾¾CAPMCAPM)(fMEfErrrr−+=β)(fMAfArrrr−+=β34II.3II.335MMMMIIModiglianiModigliani--MillerPropositionIMillerPropositionIMMIMMIMMIMMI12345612345636MMMMIIIIMMIIMMIIMMIIMMIIDfArEDDrEDEr+++=ArAr0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0%25%50%75%100%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0%25%50%75%100%37MMMM¾¾InterestTaxShieldInterestTaxShieldITSITS10100-2-3-2.475.632.40275.6101077.630%0.6••••DTrDrTITSPVCDDC==)([],)1/()1)(1(1)(*PDPEPDPECTTDTDTTTITSPV==−−−−=38MMMM¾¾¾¾FinancialDistressCostFinancialDistressCost••••••E-Toy)•••NPV••E-Toy)•••NPV39¾¾∑×−+=(()()(EEPVPVEV40II.4II.441¾¾//250.0(10.0)240.0(150.0)(10.0)80.05.0(20.0)(15.0)(10.0)40.00.50.02.0(1.0)41.5(14.0)27.5Sales/OperatingRevenue100.0CostofGoodsSold(COGS)(60.0)GrossProfit40.0Selling,General,&Administritive(SG&A)(10.0)Depreciation&Amortization(D&A)(10.0)OperatingProfit/EarningsfromOpeations20.0InterstIncome1.0InterstExpense(3.0)Non-operatingIncome0.5ProfitBeforeTax/EarningsBeforeTax18.5Tax(8.4)PrfitAfterTax/EarningsAferTax/NetIncome10.142¾¾CurrentAssetsCurrentLiabiltiesCashShort-termDebtMarketableSecuritiesAccountsPayableAccountsReceivablesTaxPayableInventoryAccruedExpensesPrepaidExpensesOthersOthersCurrentPortionofLong-termDebtInvestmentsLong-termDebtProperty,Plant,&Equipment(PP&EDeferredTaxLand,Building,&EquipmentConstructioninProgressOtherLong-termLiabilitiesIntangibleAssets