全球13市场32个月Airbnb和酒店数据35页

Airbnb&HotelPerformanceAnanalysisofproprietarydatain13globalmarketsAnalyzedby:JessicaHaywoodPatrickMayockJanFreitagKwabenaAkuffoOwooBlaseFiorillaAirbnb&HotelPerformance3ExecutiveSummaryHotelperformancecontinuedtoshowstrengthwhilemorehoststhaneverwererentingtheirresidencesonAirbnb,accordingtoSTRandAirbnbdata.PerformancedatathroughJuly2016indicatedhotelswerefollowingtheirnormalcyclicaltrajectory,hoveringatorjustbelowthepeakatatimewhenAirbnblistingsoutnumberedtheworld’slargesthotelcompanybynearlythreeunitstoone.AsofJuly,theU.S.hotelindustryhadrecordedits77thconsecutivemonthofrevenue-per-available-roomgrowth.Duringthatsamemonth,hotelierssoldmoreroomnights(117million)thaneverbefore.Thosesamedynamicslargelyheldtrueinthefollowing13globalmarketsanalyzedinthisreport:Barcelona,Boston,London,LosAngeles,MexicoCity,Miami,NewOrleans,Paris,SanFrancisco,Seattle,Sydney,TokyoandWashington,D.C.Airbnbprovidedmorethantwo-and-a-halfyearsofdailydataforeachmarket,whichSTRanalyzedandthencomparedtoitshotelperformancedata.Amongthemostcompellingfindings:•Airbnboccupancygenerallywasthehighestinmarketswherehotelshadhighoccupancy.•HoteloccupancywassignificantlyhigherthanAirbnboccupancy.•WhileAirbnb’sshareoftotalaccommodationsupply(i.e.Airbnbunitsandhotelrooms)wasgrowing,itsshareofmarketdemandandrevenuesstillwasgenerallybelow4%and3%,respectively.•Airbnbgueststypicallystayedlongerthantheaveragehotelguest,withroughlyhalfofAirbnbroomnightscomingfromtripsofsevendaysorlonger.•Airbnb’sshareofbusinesstravelwassubstantiallysmallerthanitsshareofleisuretravel.•HotelaveragedailyratesgenerallywerehigherthanAirbnbrates(e.g.$16higheronaverageinoursevenU.S.markets).•HotelADRincreasedinallbutonemarket(Paris)intheyearendingJuly2016.Airbnbratesdecreasedineightmarketsandincreasedinfive.Supplymighthavebeenacontributingfactorinthatlatterpoint,asthemajorityofthemarketsanalyzedinthisreportsawavailableAirbnbunitsincreasebymorethan40%—andinsomecasesnorthof100%.Whenanalyzinggrowthrates,however,it’simportanttoacknowledgethebaseline.Airbnbisarelativelynewpresenceinmanymarkets,andgrowthratesoftenarecommensuratewithuntappedpotential.Inotherwords,Airbnbhasmoreroomtogrowinmostmarkets,whereashotelshavecarvedoutanestablishedpresenceoverdecades.Airbnb&HotelPerformance4TheAirbnbdemandstoryfollowedasimilarnarrative,withgrowthratesthatgenerallywereabove60%.Hardertoassesswasthenatureofthisdemand—whetheritwasmostlyincremental,asmanyofAirbnb’smostardentdefendershaveargued,orwhetheritrepresentedaroomnightthatotherwisewouldhavebeenspentinahotel,asmanycriticshavealleged.Whilecompetitivepressuresexistacrossthelodginglandscape,itisdifficulttoassesstheinterplaybetweendifferentaccommodationtypeswithdifferentoperatingmodels.Hotelinventoryisfixed;ahotelroomtonightisahotelroomtomorrow.Airbnbinventorycanflex,ashoststakesupplyonandoffthemarketbasedontheirwillingnesstomakeprivatelyownedunitsavailabletothepublicforrent.Thisanalysisrepresentsourattempttonormalizethedataset,butitshouldnotbeinterpretedasatrue“apples-to-apples”comparison.Thatsaid,onecanstillgleanmeaningfulinsightandinformationfromthedata.Areviewofcompressionnights,forinstance,showednonoticeableimpactofAirbnbwithinthesevenU.S.marketsincludedinthisreport(Figure1).Thenumberofnightsinwhichoccupancyexceeded95%hadincreasedsteadilysincetheGreatRecession,reachingitspeakof76duringyear-to-dateJuly2015.Thatnumberdippedslightlyto71throughJuly2016,whichfollowedasofteningofseveralothermacroeconomicindicators.Alsoatplaywasthe1.6%uptickinhotelsupplyinthosesevenmarkets,whichshouldnotbeunderestimated.Thislookstobeasmallpercentageincreaseonthesurfacegiventhehighbaseofhotelsupply(92,871,685),butthetotalnumberofnewsupplyadded(1,487,458)tothesemarketswasactuallysubstantial.15161713415274361757671200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016CompressionNightsfor7USMarketsJulyYTDFigure1Airbnb&HotelPerformance5What’smore,U.S.hoteliersinthosesevenmarketssawnodegradationoftheirratepremiumsduringthatsameperiod.ADRsoncompressionnightsduring2016were35%higherthanonnon-compressionnights,whichrepresentsarecordhigh.Compressionnightperformanceinthesixinternationalmarketsfollowedasimilartrack,althoughmorevolatilitywasobservedintheaggregategiventhedisparateeconomicandpoliticalfactorsatplay.Withthisanalysis,itisourintenttoprovidethemostcomprehensivecomparisonofAirbnbandhotelperformancedataeverreportedtobetterinformtheconversationsinthis“streetcorner”business.Itisnotourintenttodrawcorrelationorcausation.Wewillsharemorefindingsaswecontinuetoexaminetheavailableinformationandasnewdatabecomesavailable.Airbnb&HotelPerformance6MethodologyandDataSetsAirbnbprovidedSTRwithmarket-levelactivitydatafrom1December,2013,to31July,2016,forthefollowing13markets:Barcelona,Boston,London,LosAngeles,MexicoCity,Miami,NewOrleans,Paris,SanFrancisco,Seattle,Sydney,TokyoandWashington,D.C.ThesemarketsandsubmarketdefinitionswerebasedonzipcodesusedbySTR.Matchingbasedonzipcodewasn’tpossibleinTokyo,LondonandMexicoCity,soAirbnbprovideddatabasedonhowitdefinesthesemarkets.WhileAirbnbprovidedacomplete