JP摩根全球农业行业全球农业市场展望农产品策略大宗期货农产品2019374页

JPMAgriculturalMarketsOutlookShortcoveringrisksaheadasaUS-ChinatradeagreementnearsMarch2019TraceyAllen(44-20)[e-mail]eendpagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.1AgriculturalMarketsOutlookAgriculturalmarketsaresubjecttosignificantshortcoveringrisksthrough2Q19,asfundamentalvalueisrestored.Themediumtolongtermoutlookisparticularlybullishacrossthegrain,cottonandsugarmarketsandweanticipatethatChinawillremovetariffsonUSagricommoditiesduring2Q19,beforeatradedealisreached.Non-Commercialsholdarecordlargenet-shortpositionacrossUStradedagricommoditymarkets,andcommercialactivityrepresentsavastlyunderweightproportionoftotalopeninterestat34%.Extensiveshortcoveringrisksarepresentacrossthecomplex,mostacutelyforgrainmarkets.Weatherrisksarediscountedacrossmarkets;ElNiñoisestablishedintheTropicalPacificandmayyetintensifythroughtheNorthernHemisphereinSpring,andpersistinto2H19.1Q19priceforecastrevisedloweronamarked-to-marketbasis,asfundamentalsremainlargelyunchanged.Weholdanupsideriskbiasonpriceforecaststhrough2H19and2020,astheUSandChinawilllikelystrikeadealthatinvolvesChinaimportingunprecedentedvolumesofUSagriculturalproducts.Traderecommendations:staylongtheagriculturalcomplexviaanindex,golongCBOTWheatJuly‘19futures,golongICE#11SugarOctober‘1913.5–15USc/lbcallspread,short12.5USc/lbput1Images:PixabayAGRICULTUREQUARTERLY1Q19Source:Bloomberg,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearch,*asofclose21March2019NearbycontractpriceYOYandYTDchange(%)ShortcoveringrisksaheadasaUS-Chinatradeagreementnears2•Agriculturalmarketsunderperformedthebroadcommoditiescomplexin1Q19,andaresubjecttosignificantshortcoveringrisksthrough2Q19,asfundamentalvalueisrestored.Themediumtolongtermoutlookisparticularlybullishacrossgrain,cottonandsugarmarketsandweanticipatethatChinawillremovetariffsonUSagricommoditiesduring2Q19,beforeatradedealisreachedwiththeUS.•Ifatradedealisnotagreedthrough2Q19,priceswilllikelyretreatbackdowntoearlyMarchlevels.•Agricommoditypriceperformancehasbeenataleoftwohalvesthroughearly2019,andtheunexpectedlossesconcealaverybullishmediumtolongtermoutlookacrossthecomplex.Themid1Q19collapsewaslargelyledbysystematicsellingpressure,andcommercialtradersholdadisproportionatelysmallproportionoftotalopeninterest.•Themediumtolongtermoutlookforagricommoditiesisparticularlybullish,andweanticipateasignificantpricerecoveryledbythegrainsin2Q19,andanimprovementinreturnsthroughyearend.•Weatherriskshavebeendiscountedandshouldbemonitoredclosely.ElNiñoconditionsareprojectedtopersistthroughtheNorthernHemispherespring,andwhileconfidenceinlongertermforecastsislowatthispoint,modelscallforacontinuationofElNiñoconditionsthroughthesummer.•Traderecommendations:staylongtheagriculturalcomplexviaanindex,golongCBOTWheatJuly‘19futures,golongICE#11SugarOctober‘1913.5–15USc/lbcallspread,short12.5USc/lbputAGRICULTUREQUARTERLY1Q1927%9%9%1%3%5%0%2%-3%-2%-5%-3%-5%-9%-1%-2%1%-7%-8%4%-11%5%2%-8%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%CMELeanHogsCMEClassIIIMilkICE#2CottonCBOTSoymealMinneapolisWheatCMELiveCattleCBOTCornCBOTSoybeansCMEFeeerCattleICERobustaCoffeeICEArabicaCoffeeICECanolaEuronextMaizeCBOTKansasWheatJPMCCIAgriIndexBCOMAgriIndexMDE-BursaPalmOilEuronextWheatCBOTWheatCBOTSoybeanOilICENYCocoaICE#11RawSugarICE#5WhiteSugarICECocoaLondonMOMYTDShortcoveringrisksaheadasaUS-ChinatradeagreementnearsSource:CBOT,ICE,Bloomberg,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearchNote:AllForecastsareperiodaverages.Italicsindicatesaforecastadjustment.J.P.Morganagricommoditypriceforecasts3•Shortcoveringrisksareprominentacrossagricommoditymarkets,aspriceshaveslippedbelowfundamentalfairvalue.Weatherrelatedproductionrisksareemergingandhaveencouragedcommercialtradersanddiscretionaryinvestorstoincreasetheirappetiteacrossagricommoditymarkets,afterunprecedentedaversionthroughmid1Q19.Weanticipatethatgrainandsoftcommoditypriceswillcontinuetofindstrengththrough2Q19asfundamentalvalueisrestored,afteralargelysystematicledselloffinFebruary.•Themediumtolongtermoutlookisparticularlybullishforgrainandsoftcommoditymarketshowever,andweanticipatethatChinawillremovetariffsonUSagricommoditiesduring2Q19,beforeatradedealisreachedwiththeUS.IntheabsenceofaremovalofChina’sretaliatorytariffsandatradeagreement,agricommoditypriceswillremainunderpressure,andlikelytrackbackdowntoourlowcasepricescenarios.•USspringacreageallocationismoreuncertainthannormalin2019,withtraderelatedpricedistortionsandnowextensivefloodrisksandplantingdelays.Relativetoour2019OutlookestimatesfromNovember‘18wehavereducedourestimateforcornandwheatplating,whilesoybeanandcottonacreagehasexpended.WeanticipateasizeableincreaseinpreventedplantingandmajorrowcropacreageislikelytofallbelowUSDAOutlook19projections.•Fundamentalsadjustmentswereminoroverthequarter.Latamcornproductionhasincreasedslightly,India’ssugarproductionwasrevisedhigherin2018/19to33.5milliontonnes,andUScornandwheatexportsfor2018/19werereducedslightly.China’ssoybeanimportdemandwascutto85milliontonnesin2018/19and88milliontonnesin2019/20,followingdeclining