OECD20162025全球农业展望

OECD‑FAOAgriculturalOutlook2016‑2025SpECiAlFOCuS:Sub‑SAhArAnAFriCAOECD‑FAOAgriculturalOutlook2016‑2025ThetwelfthjointeditionoftheOECD-FAOAgriculturalOutlookprovidesmarketprojectionsto2025formajoragriculturalcommodities,biofuelsandfish.The2016reportcontainsaspecialfeatureontheprospectsfor,andchallengesfacing,Sub-SaharanAfrica.Overtheten-yearOutlookperiod,slowingdemandgrowthwillbematchedbyefficiencygainsinproduction,implyingrelativelyflatrealagriculturalprices.However,marketandpolicyuncertaintiesimplyariskofresurgentvolatility.TheoutlookforagricultureinSub-SaharanAfricaisforrisingfoodavailability,whichwillsupportadecliningincidenceofundernourishment.Thesector’sprospectscouldbemuchimprovedbymorestablepoliciesacrosstheregion,bystrategicpublicandprivateinvestments,notablyininfrastructure,andbysuitablyadaptedresearchandextension.ContentsExecutivesummaryChapter1.OverviewoftheOECD-FAOAgriculturalOutlook2016-2025Chapter2.AgricultureinSub-SaharanAfrica:ProspectsandchallengesforthenextdecadeChapter3.CommoditysnapshotsMoredetailedcommoditychaptersareavailableonlineat://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-data-en.Supplementaryinformationcanbefoundat‑92‑64‑25322‑3512016021pConsultthispublicationonlineat*cfdccd+OECD‑FAOAgriculturalOutlook2016‑2025OECD-FAOAgriculturalOutlook2016-2025ThisworkispublishedundertheresponsibilityoftheSecretary-GeneraloftheOECDandtheDirector-GeneraloftheFAO.TheopinionsexpressedandargumentsemployedhereindonotnecessarilyreflecttheofficialviewsofOECDmembercountries,orthegovernmentsoftheFAOmembercountries.Thisdocumentandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorareaThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialinthisinformationproductdonotimplytheexpressionofanyopinionwhatsoeveronthepartoftheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNationsconcerningthelegalordevelopmentstatusofanycountry,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.ThenamesofcountriesandterritoriesusedinthisjointpublicationfollowthepracticeoftheFAO.ISBN978-92-64-25322-3(print)ISBN978-92-64-25323-0(PDF)OECD-FAOAgriculturalOutlookISSN1563-0447ISSN1999-1142FAO:ISBN978-92-5-109296-5ThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityoftherelevantIsraeliauthorities.TheuseofsuchdatabytheOECDiswithoutprejudicetothestatusoftheGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraelisettlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofinternationallaw.ThepositionoftheUnitedNationsonthequestionofJerusalemiscontainedinGeneralAssemblyResolution181(II)of29November1947,andsubsequentresolutionsoftheGeneralAssemblyandtheSecurityCouncilconcerningthisquestion.Photoscredits:Cover©OriginalcoverconceptdesignedbyJuanLuisSalazar.AdaptationsbyOECD.CorrigendatoOECDpublicationsmaybefoundonlineat:©OECD/FAO2016Youcancopy,downloadorprintOECDcontentforyourownuse,andyoucanincludeexcerptsfromOECDpublications,databasesandmultimediaproductsinyourowndocuments,presentations,blogs,websitesandteachingmaterials,providedthatsuitableacknowledgmentofOECDandFAOassourceandcopyrightownerisgiven.Allrequestsforpu[e-mail]hotocopyportionsofthismaterialforpublicorcommercialuseshallbeaddresseddirectlytotheCopyrightClearanceCenter(CCC)[e-mail]çaisd’exploitationdudroitdecopie(CFC)[e-mail]nas:OECD/FAO(2016),OECD-FAOAgriculturalOutlook2016-2025,OECDPublishing,Paris.©OECD/FAO20163ForewordThefoodandagriculturesystemsfulfilawiderangeoffunctionsvitaltothewell-beingofhumanity.Beingattheheartofglobalfoodsecurity,theyareexpectedtoprovidetheworldwithadequateandreliablesuppliesofsafe,healthyandnutritiousfood.Theyarealsocrucialforthelivelihoodsofbillionsofpeople,includingmanyoftheworld’spoorest,providingdirectemploymentandincomeandcontributingtothebroaderruralandoveralleconomicdevelopment.Tocontinuetofulfilthesekeyroles,agriculturalproductivityhastoincreaseinasustainablemanner.The2016editionoftheOECD-FAOAgriculturalOutlookprovidesanassessmentofthemedium-termprospectsofglobalagriculture.Thereporthighlightsthatforthesectortomeettheexpandingdemandforfood,feedandrawproductsforindustrialuses,significantproductiongrowthisneeded.Thisexpansionwillhavetotakeplaceinthefaceofdeclininglandandwateravailabilityformanyareasintheworld,compoundedbytheeffectsofclimatechange.Itisclearthatthemajorityofgrowthwillhavetocomefrommoreefficiencyina