美国农业部牲畜乳制品和家禽展望2019年至今牛的进口增加猪的进口减少202011622页

ApprovedbyUSDA’sWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoardLivestock,Dairy,andPoultryOutlook2019Year-To-DateImportsHigherforCattle,LowerforHogsWilliamHahnThefigurebelowshowsyear-to-date(January-November)cattleandhogimportsfor2018and2019.Theimportsaredividedintotwoclasses,animalsforslaughterand“allothers.”Mostofthe“otheranimals”classiscomprisedoffeedercalvesforcattleandfinishinganimals(segregatedearly-weanedpigsandfeederpigs)forhogs.VirtuallyallcattleimportscomefromMexicoandCanada.U.S.hogimportsaresourcedalmostexclusivelyfromCanada.MexicoisthelargestsourceoflivecattleimportstotheUnitedStates.Thisyear,about63percentofcattleimportsareofMexicanorigin,withabout99.8percentofMexicanimportsfallingintotheall-othercategory.Virtuallyallofthesecattlearefeedercalves.About37percentoftotalcattleimportsin2019areofCanadianorigin,71percentofwhicharecomprisedofslaughtercattle.Year-to-datecattleimportsareabout7percenthigherthanayearago.Mostoftheincreaseisattributabletoan84,000-headincreaseinslaughteranimals,mostlyofCanadianorigin.Feedercattleimportshaveincreasedabout41,000head,or3.1percent,throughNovember.Canadaisthesourceofover99.9percent—allbutahandful—ofU.S.hogimports.2019year-to-datetotalhogimportsareabout4.7millionhead,almost4percentlowerthanin2018.Slaughterhogshaveincreasedalmost4percent(about25,000head),whileimportsoffinishinganimalshavedeclinedbymorethan205,000head,toabout5percentlowerthanthesameperiodin2018.0.001.002.003.004.005.006.002018cattle2019cattle2018Hogs2019HogsSlaughterAllotherLivecattle,livehogimports:Jan.-Nov.2018and2019MillionheadSource:USDA,EconomicResearchService.EconomicResearchService|SituationandOutlookReportNextreleaseisFebruary18,2020LDP-M-307|January16,20202Livestock,Dairy,andPoultryOutlook,LDP-M-307,January16,2020USDA,EconomicResearchServiceBeef/Cattle:Beefproductionin2019wasrevisedslightlyhigheronpaceofslaughter.However,2020productionwasreducedonlowerexpectedcarcassweights,despiteslightlymoremarketings.Cattlepriceswereraised,reflectingpricestrengthinthefirstpartoftheyear.The2019beefimportforecastwasincreasedonrecenttradedata,whilethe2019beefexportforecastwasreducedtoreflectaslowerexportpaceattheendoftheyear.Theforecastsfor2020beeftraderemainunchangedfromlastmonth.Dairy:Baseduponrecentweakgrowthinmilkproductionpercow,the2020annualforecastformilkproductionhasbeenlowered0.4billionpoundsto222.0billionpounds.Exportforecastsfor2020havebeenraisedduetohigherexpectedexportsofNDMandcheese.Priceforecastsforbutter,drywhey,andCheddarcheesehavebeenloweredfor2020,butthepriceforecastforNDMhasbeenraised.Theall-milkpriceforecastfor2020is$19.25perhundredweight,$0.15lowerthanlastmonth’sforecast.Pork/Hogs:DatafromtheDecemberQuarterlyHogsandPigsreport,coupledwithexpectedgrowthoflitterratespointtoU.S.porkproductionofabout29billionpoundsin2020,almost4percenthigherthanlastyear.Hogpricesin2020areexpectedtoaverage$54.50percwt,about14percenthigherthanpriceslastyear,reflectingstrongprocessordemandforhogs,continuedsoliddomesticporkdemand,andU.S.porkexportsgrowthofabout13percentabovevolumesshippedin2019.Poultry/Eggs:The2020broilerproductionforecastwasreviseduponexpectationsforalargerbreederflock.Thisincreasedsupplyisexpectedtoputdownwardpressureonprices—thebasisforloweringthepriceforecast.TheendingstocksforecastwasincreasedonhighNovemberinventories,aswellasanticipatedhigherproduction.Thefourth-quarterexportforecastwasincreasedandimportforecastdecreasedonlatesttradedata.Thetableeggproductionforecastwasincreasedonhigher-than-expectedproductivity,aswellasexpectationsforalargerbreederflock.Anincreasedsupplywilllikelypressureprices,whichwasthebasisforloweringthe2020priceforecast.Thefourth-quartereggexportforecastwasincreasedduetohigher-than-expectedNovembertrade.The2020turkeyproductionforecastwasloweredonhatcherydata,whiletighteningsupplieswerethebasisforloweringendingstocksaswellasincreasingturkeyprices.TheturkeyexportforecastwasincreasedonstrongexportstoCentralAmericaandHongKong,whiletheimportforecastwasloweredonfewershipmentsfromChile.3Livestock,Dairy,andPoultryOutlook,LDP-M-307,January16,2020USDA,EconomicResearchServiceBeef/CattleRussellKnightandChristopherDavisPaceofSlaughterStaysStronginFourth-Quarter2019The2019fourth-quarterbeefproductionforecastwasadjustedhigherby15millionpoundsfromlastmonthto7.0billionpounds,whichraisedtheforecastforannualproductionto27.2billionpounds.Theincreasewasbasedonafaster-than-expectedpaceofnonfedcattleslaughterinDecember,inparticularbeefcowslaughter.Sincethethirdquarter,beefcowslaughterhasincreasedsharply.BasedontheAMSreportsofActualSlaughterUnderFederalInspectionforthefirst4weeksofDecember,theyear-over-yearchangeinfederallyinspectedslaughterofbeefcowsrangedfrom13to25percenthigher.TheincreaseinnonfedcattleslaughtermorethanoffsetadeclineinexpectedfedcattleslaughterinDecember.BasedontheNASSLivestockSlaughterreportforNovember,thepaceofbeefcowslaughterwasconsiderablyaboveyear-earlierlevels.SincetheweekendingNovember15,pricesforlivecuttercows1haveremainedmorethan10percentabovepricesforthesameperiodayearago.This,cou