通信设备行业三季度业绩发布之际对无线设备投资者关注热点的更新20171019高华证券22页

2017年10月19日全球：通讯技术：设备证券研究报告三季度业绩发布之际对无线设备投资者关注热点的更新(摘要)投资者关于无线设备和5G的热点话题本报告中，我们重点讨论了最近数周的会议会谈中投资者关于无线设备行业的五个热点话题。我们看到5G基站的部署有加速的可能，新设施将为在固网和无线市场均有布局的设备供应商提供最佳机遇。我们对诺基亚、中兴通讯(H)和爱立信的买入评级以及高于市场的预测反映了我们的观点，即参与各方都可受益于5G所带来的无线开支的周期性反弹。我们认为如果无线开支部分转向固网，则诺基亚/中兴通讯的布局较好，而爱立信的利润率也将因自身举措而强劲扩张。5G商用服务的推出是否会早于预期？我们目前预计5G基站将于2019年开始商用，较我们此前的预期早一年。诺基亚预计美国/中国将在这一时间框架迎来大规模商用部署，而我们认为中国的发展也将带动其它地区的部署。全球电信运营商的5G试点进展也可能会促进相关标准的清晰化。5G相关的设备开支周期规模将有多大?我们认为5G资本开支水平将与4G类似，新频段的使用将带来大基站的部署，从而我们对诺基亚/爱立信/中兴通讯的预测高于预期。我们的情景分析显示，如果无线支出转向固网，则这些公司的增长也仍将迎来复苏。5G网络的结构特点？5G的特点是网络将更像“云”。非实时功能（如用户管理）或许会在数据中心运行，从而带来额外的前程/回程固网开支。未来几年中国市场的开支趋势？我们认为非传统企业的投资可推动5G技术加速采用。我们的敏感性分析表明中兴通讯可得益于中国市场更快速的普及/市场份额的变化，而诺基亚/爱立信受到的影响较小。行业定价如何？新的市场结构是否对此有影响？尽管定价形势仍然严峻，但随着中兴通讯市场份额扩大推动全球市场结构改善，我们预计定价会相对稳定。*全文翻译将随后提供相关研究5G:How100xfasterwirelesscanshapethefuture,2016年4月18日Whatwelearnedatour3rdInnovationSymposium,2017年6月28日Nokia:Compellingvaluepostearningsreset;synergyupside,UptoBuy,2016年6月29日Ericsson:Restructuringpotentialwithmarketimprovement,reiterateBuy,2017年7月10日中兴通讯:在正确的方向上采取三项举措；上调评级至买入,2017年8月7日各代蜂窝技术的峰值数据速度资料来源：华为、高盛全球投资研究侯雪婷执业证书编号:S1420515060001+86(21)[e-mail]北京高华证券有限责任公司北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。北京高华证券有限责任公司投资研究3G(HSDPA)4G(LTEcat4)5G14Mbps150Mbps10Gbps2017年10月19日全球：通讯技术：设备全球投资研究2Keyinvestordebatesandfeedbackpre3QresultsseasonCould5Gcommercialrolloutsbeginearlierthanexpected?Wirelessequipmentspendingisinitsthirdyearofdecline,followingtheinitialbenefittoCommTechequipmentindustryrevenuesfromthefirst4Grollouts(2012-13).Assuch,manyinvestorsaretryingtogaugewhethertheindustryisatacyclicaltroughandpinpointthetimingofthenext-generationnetworktechnologyupgrade–5G.Wenowbelieve5Gnetworkswillbecommerciallyrolledoutinmeaningfulscalein2019(vsourpriorviewof2020),suggestingEricsson,NokiaandZTEwillallbenefitfromthenextupcycleinthecomingyears.Inourreport,‘5G:How100xfasterwirelesscanshapethefuture’,April18,2016,weinitiallyargued5Gnetworks(asperExhibit1)willbring100xthespeed(deliveringbetterconsumerexperiencese.g.forultrafastvideo),ultralowlatency(keyfore.g.autonomousdriving,aswellasVR),extremereliability(keyformissioncriticalIOTe.g.connectedhealthcare)andahighdegreeofscalability(facilitatingastepchangeinnumberofsensors/devicesconnected-e.g.Factory4.0applications).Assuch,giventhepotentialtodelivervaluetotelcos(andabroadeningpoolofcustomers),weconcludedthatitwasrealistictoexpectthefirstcommercialrolloutstooccurin2020.However,aspertakeawaysfromthe5GpanelatourGSInnovationconference,attendedbyNokia,VerizonandQualcomm(see‘Whatwelearnedatour3rdInnovationSymposium’June28,2017)webelieveinitial5Gcommercialrolloutswillbeginearlier-in2019.Exhibit1:5GenablescriticalusecasessuchasIoTbasedonhighreliability/lowlatencyWirelessnetworkgenerationroadmapSouce:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch.Keyreasonsforthefasterrollouttimelinearea)Nokia(oneofthetop3globalequipmentvendors)recentlystateditexpectsmeaningfulcommercial5GdeploymentsintheUSandChinain2019;b)progresson5Gtrialactivitybytelcosgloballycanhelpstandardscrystallize;andc)5Genableddevices(smartphones,routers,etc.)willbeavailablein2019.1980s1990s2000s2010s2020s1G2G3G4G5GMobileAnalogVoiceMobileDigitalVoiceMobileMessagingMobileInternetAccessMobileBroadbandAll-IP(IntegrationofVoiceandData)EnhancedMobileBroadbandSupportforMassiveIoTEcosystemUltra-Reliable,Low-Latency5Gwillbringfiber-likespeedsandreliabilitytowirelessnetworkswhileenablingthedeploymentofamassiveecosystemofIoTdevices5Gnetworksoffer100xthespeedvs4G,with50xlowerlatencyand2,500xthethroughput,enablingultra-fastvideo,missioncriticalIoT&Factory4.0usecases.2017年10月19日全球：通讯技术：设备全球投资研究3Nokiaexpectsmeaningful5GdeploymentsintheUSandChinain2019:Nokiaatits2Q17resultshighlightedthatwhileithadpreviouslyexpectedinitial5Gcommercialrolloutsin2020,withscalerolloutsin2021,thetimelinehasbeenpulledinbyayear,withtelcodiscussionssuggestingmeaningfulinitialbuildsin2019(seesummaryofvendorandtelcostatementsontimelinesinExhibit2).Moreover,RajeevSuri,CEOofNokia,subsequentlyhighlightedChinacouldbeoneofthefirstmoverson5Gandotherregionscouldpotentiallyfollowtoo(perourrecentLondonroadshow,wherehehighlightedChinaasapotentialearlymoverjoiningUS,KoreaandJapan).Theimpetustowards5GinChinaappearstobetherecentequityinvestmentbywebscaleplayersBaidu,AlibabaandTencentintheChinatelcospace,wheremoreaggressivemovestowards5Grolloutcouldcatalyseothercarrierstomakeprogressinthisarea.Furthermore,whilekeyEuropeantelcossuchasVodafonehavesofarstatedcommercialrolloutsaretargetedfor2020/21,industrydiscussionsacrosstheregionsuggestagreaterdesiretomovetowards5Gthanhithertoexpected,withIndiaanotherregionwheretherecouldbeapositivesurprise(thegovernmentispushingtowardsnationwide5Gcoverageby2020).Meanwhile,Ericssonhasnotspecificallystateditsexpectationsforthetimelineof5Gcommercialization(welookforfurthercolorattheupcomingCapitalMarketsdayonNovember7-8,2017),buthasalsoarguedChinawilllikelybeattheforefront.Nokiarecently