房地产行业在健康房地产基本面下的房地产龙头可持续增长预期维持跑赢大市20171228国泰君安15页

EquityResearchEquityResearchReportPropertySectorSectorReport股票研究行业报告证券研究报告房地产行业SectorReport:PropertySectorVanLiu刘斐凡行业报告：房地产行业[e-mail]28December2017SustainableGrowthProspectforPropertyLeadersAmidstHealthyPropertySectorFundamentals,MaintainOutperform在健康房地产基本面下的房地产龙头可持续增长预期，维持“跑赢大市”Healthyfundamentalswillremain.Marginaltighteningupofmonetaryenvironmentwouldbethemainnegativeeffectonthepropertymarket,butweexpectpossibleslightlooseningofpolicy.In2018,weestimatethatcommodityhousingsalesYoYgrowthrangeandGFAYoYgrowthrangeshouldbe-3.0%to0.0%and-7.0%to-3.0%,respectively,andestimateGFAnewlystartedandinvestmenttorecordarounda0.0%YoYincreaseand2.0%YoYincrease,respectively.Notonlymarketshareconcentrationbutalsoprofitconcentrationwillincrease.Themarketshareofthetop50propertydevelopersincreasedintermsofamount/GFAfrom24.6%/14.2%in2012to37.3%/25.6%inNov.2017.Housingsalesmayreboundinhighertiercitiesbutmightdeclineinlowertiercities.Propertyleaderswithfourcorecompetitivepowers(brandandpipeline;projectdevelopmentability;financingabilityandlandreplenishmentability)couldmaintainsustainablegrowthprospectsinthesecondhalfofthesliverera.WemaintainOutperformontheexpectationofsustainablegrowthforthepropertysectorleaders.ThevaluationofthepropertysectorisnotintheundervaluedintervalasperthehistoricalPER,historicalPBRandvaluationgapbetweenHKlistingsandA-Sharelistings.Inaddition,thepropertysectorfundamentalsshouldnotsupportahighvaluationforthewholepropertysector.However,thepropertyindustrydifferentiationwillleadtovaluationdifferentiationamongstpropertydevelopers.OurtoppickisChinaOverseas(00688HK),whichwillre-graspgrowthmomentumforcontractedsales.ChinaOveseas'targetpriceisHK$31.88,whichrepresentsa20%discountto2017ENAVofHK$39.85pershareandimplies8.6x2017underlyingPERand1.3x2017PBR.WealsopreferLongforProperties(00960HK),ChinaAoyuan(03883HK)andPowerlongRealEstate(01238HK).健康基本面将会保持。货币环境的边际收紧将是房地产行业的主要负面影响，但我们预计有可能政策轻微放松。在2018年，我们预计商品房销售额和销售面积的同比增长区间为-3.0%-0.0%和-7.0%--3.0%，并预计新开工和投资分别录得0.0%和2.0%的同比增长。不仅市场份额集中度而且利润集中度将会增长。TOP50房企分别按金额/面积计的市场份额从2012年的24.6%/14.2%分别提升至2017年11月的37.3%/25.6%。房屋销售可能在高线城市反弹但可能在低线城市下降。拥有四个核心竞争力（品牌和产品线；项目开发能力；融资能力和拿地能力）的地产龙头能够在白银时代的下半场获得持续增长预期。基于地产龙头的可持续增长预期我们维持“跑赢大市”。依据历史市盈率，市净率以及港股市场和A股市场房地产公司估值的差距，房地产行业估值并不在低估区间。并且，房地产行业的基本面应该不会支撑整个地产行业的高估值。但是，地产行业的分化将会带来地产发展商之间的估值分化。我们的首选是中国海外发展（00688HK），预计将重获合约销售的增长势头。中国海外发展现在的目标价为31.88港元，较2017每股净资产39.85港元折让20%，8.6倍2017年核心市盈率和1.3倍2017年市净率。我们也推荐龙湖地产（00960HK），中国奥园（03883HK）以及宝龙地产（01238HK）。Rating:OutperformMaintained评级：跑赢大市(维持)PropertySectorKeyData房地产关键数据Source:Wind.CoverageCompaniesPerformance覆盖公司表现Source:Bloomberg.CompanyName公司名称Code编号Price股价(HK$)Rating投资评级17PER市盈率(x)18PER市盈率(x)19PER市盈率(x)17ROE净资产收益率(%)17P/B市净率(x)17Yield股息率(%)ChinaOverseas0068824.650Buy6.66.86.018.71.03.8ChinaResLand0110922.550Accumulate8.67.87.7161.22.8LongforProperties0096019.340Buy7.36.34.919.61.44.0CountryGarden0200714.160Buy13.610.48.024.42.92.4Evergrande0333325.600Buy13.48.66.623.42.03.7ShenzhenInvest006043.250Accumulate4.76.65.915.20.78.3ChinaAoyuan038834.110Buy5.64.63.9101.07.4ModernLand011071.620Buy4.94.93.416.20.85.1PowerlongRealEstate012383.650Buy3.73.42.913.10.55.7ChinaSouthCity016682.020Buy3.32.92.7170.52.9ShIndUrban005631.810Accumulate16.816.714.34.90.72.0WeightedAverage.市值加权平均Outperform10.38.26.720.71.83.5Source:theCompanies,Bloomberg,GuotaiJunanInternational.-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%20072008200920102011201220132014201520162017InvestmentYoYGFAnewlyconstructedYoYGFAsoldYoYCommodityBuildingSoldYoYCommodityBuildingAreaSold(Residential)YoY0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%200.0%250.0%29-Dec-1601-Mar-1701-May-1701-Jul-1701-Sep-1701-Nov-17ConverageCompaniesHSIofreturn%SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of1528December2017PropertySector房地产行业SectorReportPropertySectorTableofContentsPolicyandMonetaryEnvironment......................................................................3SectorFundamentalsandCharacteristics..........................................................6SectorCharacteristics........................................................................................9Valuation..........................................................................................................11InvestmentRatingandTopPick.......................................................................13SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of1528December2017PropertySector房地产行业SectorReportPropertySectorPolicyandMonetaryEnvironmentPoliciestightenedfurtherin2017.Theserelatedpoliciesmainlyinvolveanincreaseinminimumdownpayment,HPRupgrading,ASPrestrictionsandhousesellingrestrictions,andhasspreadtolower-tiercitiesaroundmetropoliscircles.Policytighteningworked,thuscoolingthepropertymarket.Figure1:PolicyandMonetaryEnvironmentandChinaPropertyMarketSource:NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina,Wind,GuotaiJunanInternational.Table1:CitiesPublishingTighteningPoliciesRegionProvinceCityYangtzeRiverDeltaShanghaiShanghaiJiangsuYangzhou,Suzhou,Wuxi,Nanjing,Zhenjaing,Changzhou,Xuzhou,QidongandNantongZhejiangHangzhou,Lishui,Ji