瑞信日本科技行业亚洲硬件反馈这个季节樱花数量有限201921371页

1、DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.13March2019AsiaPacific/JapanEquityResearchTechnologyTechnologysectorCOMMEN。

2、TResearchAnalystsAkinoriKanemoto81345507363akinori.kanemoto@credit-suisse.comHideyukiMaekawa81345509723hideyuki.maekawa@credit-suisse.comMikaNishimura81345507369mika.nishimura@credit-suisse.comYoshiyasuTakemura81345507358yoshiyasu.takemura@credit-suisse.comSayakaShimonishi81345507364sayaka.shimonishi@credit-suisse.comAsiaFeedback(Hardware):Limitedcherryblossomsthisseason■Summary:WeconductedourperiodicsurveyoftheKorean,TaiwaneseandChinesetechmarketsinlateFeb–earlyMar.Thesalesandorderadjustmentsin。

3、GreaterChinanotedinourprevioussurveyshownosignofrecoveryevenaftertheLunarNewYear,andend-demandremainsweak.Withsales-agentanddevice-makersentimentcoolingoff,weseelimitedvisibilityforrecoveryfrom2H.Ofthesmartphone-relatednamescaughtupintheUS-Chinatradefriction,wethinkonlyHuaweiwillprevail,owingtoChinesegovernmentsubsidies.DespiteSamsung’srolloutoftheGalaxyS10andA-series,weexpectsluggishnesselsewhere—atotherChinesemakersandfortheiPhone.Huaweiisexpeditingdeviceprocurement,includingforbasestations,in。

4、viewofbrisksmartphonesalesandtheriskoftheUSgovernmentblockingthesupplyofsuchpartsinitsongoingtradedisputewithChina.■Focalpointsinhardwareanddevices:(1)Huaweishipped23.5mnsmartphonesinJanuaryandlookssettoproduceover60mnunitsinJan–Mar2019(55–56mninOct–Dec2018).Thecompanyraisedits2019targetto260–270mn,butpartsprocurementmaypeakin1Q.OtherChinesesmartphonemakersarelikelytoremaininaslump.(2)WeexpectiPhoneoutputtorisefrom37mnunitsinJan–Mar2019(−22%YoY,−45%QoQ)to45mninApr–Jun(+21%,+13%).However,devicema。

5、kersprojectjustunder40mnforApr–Junand180–190mn(−15%YoY)for2019.(3)Samsungprojectsannualoutputof280–290mnunitsbutGalaxyS10outputlooksontracktohit40mn,toppingtheinitialtarget(35mn),andA-seriesoutputisupsharplysinceMarch.(4)Makerscontinuetoupgradecamera-modulespecsandmayintroduce64MPand108MPsensorsin2020asupgradesto48MPresolutions.(5)Componentsintightsupplyincludehigh-endbase-stationandautomotiveMLCCs,powersemiconductorsandCMOSimagesensors(CIS)(especiallylow-resolutionones)owingtomulti-camerasmartp。

6、hones.■Stockcalls:Intheelectronicscomponentssector,wemaintainourcautiousstance.WestillfavorMurata(6981)andTaiyoYuden(6976),whichshouldbenefitinthemediumtermfromgrowthinMLCC,andNidec(6594)andRohm(6963),whichshouldgainfromvehicleelectrification.However,weseeagrowingriskofmanycomponentsmakersinitiallyguidingforFY3/20profitdeterioration,withafewexceptionssuchasKyocera(6971)andNidecwhereone-timeissuesshouldend.Inthesemiconductor/SPEsector,totalhardwareproductionvolumeisstilltrendinglowerYoY,andutiliz。

7、ationratesatTaiwanesefoundriesremainlackluster.Wethusexpectcompaniesthatdependonhighoperatingrate-linkeddemand(suchasDisco(6146),TokyoSeimitsu(7729),Towa(6315),SUMCO(3436)andShin-EtsuChemical(4063))willcontinuetofaceadifficultbusinessenvironment.Wealsoseenosignsofanyturnaroundinmemoryprices.Weaccordinglymaintainourcautiousinvestmentstanceonthesemiconductor/SPEsector.Further,wethinkHDD-relatedstocksarealsofacingincreasinglychallengingconditionsin2019,asPCsareincreasinglylikelytocomewithSSDs.Inthe。

8、consumerelectronicssector,wecontinuetorecommendSony(6758)forongoingprofitgrowthinCIS.13March2019Technologysector2KeychartsFigure1:Globalsmartphoneoutput(quarterly)Figure2:Chinesemakersmartphoneoutput(quarterly)10202030204050606075851001031291351391301601551601651831881981521651861841531811951721531731861881120283744515863717988868777807482708284817675798080877478707170717670712118203334272459332837603228508058605575404157884340509751405774374545621419181612151516151916161621222319201920171817181。

9、7151515121110119999534649534137434440444445414857635358586043504756424141403535353530303030-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%0501001502002503003504004505001Q113Q111Q123Q121Q133Q131Q143Q141Q153Q151Q163Q161Q173Q171Q183Q181Q19E3Q19EmnunitsChinaSmartphonesSamsungSmartphonesiPhoneLGE/HTCOthersYOY%Chg.1020203020405060607585100103129135139130160155160165183188198152165186184153181195172153173186188-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0501001502002501Q114Q113Q122Q131Q144Q143Q152Q161Q174Q173Q182Q19Em。

10、nunitsSmartphoneproductionbyChinesemakersyoy%chg.Source:CreditSuisseestimatesSource:CreditSuisseestimatesFigure3:iPhonequarterlyoutputprojections(asofend-Nov2018,Jan2019,Mar2019)iPhoneproductionCY17CY18FY3/18FY3/19CY2018CY2019CY2018CY2019CY2018CY2019mnunits1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3QE4QE1QE1Q2Q3Q4QE1QE1Q2Q3Q4Q1QE2QEiPhone5s/5c/4s1.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.01.80.00.00.0iPhoneSE1.83.73.93.93.81.52.10.03.81.52.10.00.03.81.52.10.00.03.81.52.10.00.00.013.47.415.4。