JP摩根美股饮料行业美国啤酒行业深度研究增长缓慢20196638页

NorthAmericaEquityResearch06June2019USBeveragesUSBeerIndustryDeepDive:SluggishGrowthAsSegmentationWeighsOnCategoryBeverage,Household&PersonalCareProductsAndreaTeixeira,CFAAC(1-212)[e-mail]KGrom(1-212)[e-mail]tinaBrathwaite,CFA(1-212)[e-mail]eanConsumerGoodsandBeveragesCelinePannuti,CFA(44-20)[e-mail]Dinges(44-20)[e-mail]ge32foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.(TBA)intheUSremainshighlydynamicandcompetitiveasconsumerpreferenceshaveshifteddramaticallyovertheyearstoavarietyofliquidsandoccasions.Wefocusthis38-pageprimerisonUSbeer(stilllargestalcoholsegmentwith~43%share(-460bpssince2006),butwealsodiscussthemixdynamicsaroundspirits(34%,+360bps),wine(19%,+50bps),RTD/Cider(3%,+50bps),andalternatives(cannabis)herein.Lookingahead,weexpecttrendsinabout50%ofthebeerindustry(domesticpremium,premiumlightsandeconomy)toremainsluggishgoingforward.Mexicanimports,lowcarbandspikedseltzershavebeentheprimarysourcesofgrowthfortheindustryforsometimeandwillprobablycontinueassumingnorecessionahead.Tothatpoint,wealsoanalyzedthedemandineachofthebeersub-categoriesduringthelastrecessionperiod,asweelaborateinside.Onarelativebasisandabsentofarecession,wethinkConstellationBrands(STZ,OW-rated)remainsthemoston-trendstockwecoverinTBA.Ontheothersideofthespectrum,weremaincautiousontherevenueoutlookforMolsonCoors(TAP,N-rated)astheirportfolioishighlydependentonoff-trendbeervolumeswhichcontinuetodecline.WhileBrownForman(BF/BcoveredbyPeterGrom)isapureplayinspirits,wethinkvaluationalreadyreflectsconsistenttoplinegrowthespeciallyinlightofgrossmarginheadwinds.Becle(CUERVO,N-rated)iswellpositionedinTequilaandIrishwhiskey,butportfolioisstillmostlymainstream,despitepremiumizationefforts.ReasonsforWeakerBeerPerformanceintheUSSeemSecular...Thereareseveralpotentialreasonsfortheshiftawayfrommainstreambeerinourview:(1)Experimentationacrosscategories(inparticularyoungergenerations)withsocialmediafacilitatingawarenessoflocalbrands.(2)Authenticityandhigherpricepointscommandinghigherperceivedbrandequity.(3)Health&wellnessdrivinglow-carbbeergrowth.(4)Demographics(fastergrowthofHispanicpopulation)continuetobeacatalystforMexicanbeerfastergrowthalongwithitsauthenticityandpremiumpositioning.(5)Cannabislegalizationinsomestates-thereisnoconcreteevidence,butbelieveitisbecomingacomplement/alternativetoalcoholtosomebeerdrinkers.…Yet,Companies/BrandsthatOver-indextoHispanics,WomenandCarb-consciousConsumersContinuetoOutperform.Forthereasonswehighlightabove,Mexicanimports,lowcarbbeerbrands(Michelob,CoronaPremier)andspikedseltzershavebeenthebrightspots,andweviewthesetrendsassustainable.2NorthAmericaEquityResearch06June2019AndreaTeixeira,CFA(1-212)[e-mail]RecessionSensitivity.Givenwhereweareintheeconomiccycleandtradediscussions,wehavefieldedquestionsfromanumberofdifferentinvestorsaskingcouldthependulumofgrowth(withinbeer)swingbackinfavorofABIandTAPifweweretoheadintoarecession.WethoughtitwouldbehelpfultorevisitNielsendatafrom2006-2010tohighlight(1)whichcompaniesperformedwelloverthistimeframeand(2)whichsegmentsactuallygainedshare(i.e.diddomesticpremiumbeersoutperformandgainshare).Fromatotalbeveragealcoholperspective,beertrendsunderperformedspiritsandwineduringthelastrecessionfromavolumestandpoint,butoutperformedtotalalcoholretailsalesduring2009.Inlookingatshare,broadlyspeaking,duringthecourseoftherecessionlate2008through2009,ABIdidgainshareoftheUSbeercategoryandwedidseetrendsforimportcompanieslikeSTZ/CrownandHeinekenloseshare.However,itwasmostlyduetotheBudLightLimeflavorlaunchwhichquicklygained460bpsshare.Excludingthislaunch,ABI(coveredbyCelinePannuti)haslostshareduringmostoftherecession.3NorthAmericaEquityResearch06June2019AndreaTeixeira,CFA(1-212)[e-mail]Trends.........................................................................4SluggishCategoryTrendsExpectedToContinue.....................................................4WhoGainsShareInAnotherEconomicDownturn?.................................................8SegmentPerformance...........................................................10DomesticPremiumandPremiumLights................................................................11BelowPremium(Economy)..................................................................................15Imports......................................