基于数值产品的乡镇天气预报方法研究与应用

:2005-11-10;:2006-09-05:,,1963,,(,125000):,MM5T213,2005810,,,:;;;1,2005,,,,,,,,2,,,,,,,,,,,,33111104km2,99,100km2,,,:T213MM5HLAFSECMWF,JAPANGERMANY,,,:(1);(2);(3);(4),,,810MM524h6h[1]T2131000hPa6hMM501170113,15km15km,,;T21311,,T21320,MM5082099,312MM524h1h(01170113)T21323120072JOURNALOFMETEOROLOGYANDENVIRONMENTVol123No11February20071000hPa6h(11),,:X(M,n)-X(M,N)X(M,N+1y)-X(M,N)=(n-N)y(1)X(M+1x,n)-X(M+1x,N)X(M+1x,N+1y)-X(M+1x,N)=(n-N)y(2)X(m,n)-X(M,n)X(M+1x,n)-X(M,n)=m-Mx(3)1,(m,n)1,(M,N),(M,N+1y),(M+1x,N),(M+1x,N+1y)4,xy,X(M,N),X(M,N+1),X(M+1,N),X(M+1,N+1)(1)(2)X(M,n),X(M+1x,n),(3)X(m,n),X(m,n),X(),MM524h,T21302,08,1420,24hT2134MM524313,992:,;MICAPS,MICAPS[2],,,MICAPS,232MM5203T213204810T2131000hPa2024h810MM520,10MM508,2048()19:E=|S-F|,2T=P/NSF,P2(),N4,,R=P/N,P,N41144a4b,2:T2132048%61%,321:54%,40%,22%;MM52068%,46%,MM50853%,28%412MM54c4d810MM560%,80%;30%4134(1)T213,,;,(2)MM520,,,;,,,;MM508,(3)MM5;,,;(4),,;,,414(50%)41411T21320MM5202,,13;,13MM520;,41412,,6017,78,,(,,1989),8422310(1)10:174%,34;,,35,,68;(2)8:1,,,2,,,45,VB610[3-4],MI2CAPS599,,MM55T213,MICAPS6,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[1],.MM5[J].,2005(3):2-4.[2],.[J].,1999(4):34-36.[3]EvangclosPetroutsos.VisualBasic5[M].:,1997:62-82,136-142.[4]Microsoft//.VisualBasic5.0[M].:,1998:434-435,854-855,970-972.521:ApplicationofvillagesandtownsweatherforecastmethodbasedonnumericalproductsZHANGJiyingFEIJieXINGYuhangWANGLixin(HuludaoMeteorologicalBureau,Huludao125000)Abstract:AccordingtoanalysisandcomparisonofNWPproducts,precipitationandtemperatureforecastsofvil2lagesandtownsweatherforecastwereanalyzedwithMM5andT213numericalforecastingpatternproducts.ThepatternforecastresultsfromAugusttoOctoberin2005weretestedandanalyzed,andthesubjectiveandobjectiverevisalruleswereobtained,whichcouldimprovetheaccuraterateofvillagesandtownsforecasteffectively.Andthevillagesandtownsweatherforecastmethodcouldbeformedbasedonnumericalpatternforecastproducts.Keywords:Villagesandtownsweatherforecast;Numericalproduct;Methoddevelopment;Testandanalysis6223