贝恩咨询分析方法-varianceanalysis

Author:AltonShader,JamesBakerVarianceAnalysisMarch1998VarianceAnalysis2Agenda•Whatisvarianceanalysis?•Linearvariance–IceCreamCo.•Twocomponentvarianceanalysis–Jesse’sBrewery•Varianceanalysiswithmorethantwocomponents–BostonVideo•KeytakeawaysVarianceAnalysis3WhatisVarianceAnalysis?Varianceanalysisisusedtounderstandandassessthedriversofchangeinmeasuredvariables.•Varianceanalysishelpsexplainandunderstandwhatdrivesthedifferencebetweentwomeasuresofthesamevariable(e.g.,1998profitvs.1995profit)•Varianceanalysisexplainsdifferencesbetweenmeasuresbybreakingthosemeasuresintotheirbasecomponents(e.g.,1998revenueand1998OPEXascomponentsof1998profit)andquantifyingtheimpactofeachcomponent•Bainfrequentlyusesvarianceanalysisto–quantifyandidentifytrueprofitdrivers–helpdrivefutureanalysisonthemostleveragedissuesVarianceAnalysis4TheValueofVarianceAnalysisWhydoweneedtoperformvarianceanalysis?Givesbusinessinsightastowhatdrivesrevenue/cost/profitLeadsto'actions'Bainusesvarianceanalysistogainbusinessinsightandtoidentifythemosteffectiveandvaluableactionsteps.•Whydoesprofitchange?•Whatdriverhasthemostimpact?•Whatexplainsdifferencesinrelativecostposition?•Usedtodetermineproductlineprofitability•Identifiesareasoffocusforcostreduction•Indicatesimpactofloweringprice•DrivescustomersegmentationstrategiesVarianceAnalysis5DefinitionsinVarianceAnalysisMostsituationsfallintooneofthreecategoriesofvarianceanalysis.Description:TwoComponent•UnderstandingindividualimpactoftwovariableonasinglemeasureLinear•SimplecomparisonofonecomponentagainstanotherMorethanTwoComponent•UnderstandingindividualimpactofmorethantwovariablesonasinglemeasureExample:•1998revenueincreasesdrivenby1998priceincreaseandunitsales•1990totalcostperunitversus1995totalcostperunit•Differencesincustomerrevenuedrivenbynumberoftransactions,productmixandotherfeesVarianceAnalysis6Agenda•Whatisvarianceanalysis?•Linearvariance–IceCreamCo.•Twocomponentvarianceanalysis–Jesse’sBrewery•Varianceanalysiswithmorethantwocomponents–BostonVideo•KeytakeawaysVarianceAnalysis7Situation:•OritandTom’sIceCreamCo.produceicecreamwhichtheysellingallon-sizedcontainersatsupermarketsaroundthecountry•Theyhavetrackedtheircosttoproduceicecreampergallonovertimeandhaveseenitdeclineoverfiveyearsby25%Question:•Whathasdrivencostsdownward?•WhatmightOritandTomfocusontoachievebettercostsavingsgoingintothefuture?LinearVarianceExample(IceCreamCo.)VarianceAnalysis819951990VarianceProductioncosts:(includessales,labor,admin)$220,500$210,000$10,500Rawmaterialscosts:$63,000$60,000$3,000Advertisingexpenses:$31,500$30,000$1,500Totalgallonssold:70,00050,00020,000LinearVarianceExampleVarianceAnalysis9Unitproductioncosts:$3.15$4.20($1.05)Unitrawmaterialscosts:$0.90$1.20($0.30)Unitadvertisingcosts:$0.45$0.60($0.15)Totalperunitcosts:$4.50$6.00($1.50)19951990VarianceLinearVarianceExample(VarianceperGallon)VarianceAnalysis101990IncreaseinproductionvolumesRawmaterialspurchasingsavingsReducedadvertisingexpense1995$6.00($1.05)($0.30)($0.15)$4.50$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00$7.00IceCreamCo.CostperGallonofIceCream(1995ConstantDollars)ThoroughBainanalysisofthedataallocatedthereducedcostsintothreecomponents.LinearVariancesExample(IceCreamCo.)VarianceAnalysis11LinearVariancesExample•ManagementofIceCreamCo.appearstohaveenjoyedincreasingeconomiesofscale,particularlyrelatingtoproductioncosts,whichhavedrivencostsdownward•OritandTommightwanttofocusinthefutureongainingevengreaterleverageinmanagingproductioncostsasproductionvolumeincreasesVarianceAnalysis12Agenda•Whatisvarianceanalysis?•Linearvariance–IceCreamCo.•Twocomponentvarianceanalysis–Jesse’sBrewery•Varianceanalysiswithmorethantwocomponents–BostonVideo•KeytakeawaysVarianceAnalysis13Situation:•Jesse’sBreweryproduceshigh-qualitybeerswhichitsellsincases•Inthepastyear,Jesse’sBreweryhasexperienced15%revenuegrowth.Duringthesametime,salesvolumesandpriceshavebothincreasedQuestion:•Jesse’sBrewerywouldliketounderstandwhatpercentoftherevenueincreasecomesfromtheincreaseinsalesvolumes,andwhatpercentfromtheincreaseinpriceTwoComponentVarianceExample-Jesse’sBrewery(1of6)VarianceAnalysis1419971998$176.5$203.5$0$50$100$150$200$250Jesse'sBreweryAnnualRevenues(MillionsofDollars)TwoComponentVarianceExample-Jesse’sBrewery(2of6)CasePrice:CasesSold:$18.20$20.009.7MM10.2MMWhatpercentofthe$27MMincreaseinrevenueisdueto–thepriceincreasing?–thevolumesoldincreasing?–boththepriceandvolumesoldincreasing?thisiscovariance,wherepartofthevarianceisnoteasilyattributabletoasinglevariableVarianceAnalysis15Volume1998Revenue$203.5MM1997RevenuePriceVariance(Partofrevenuechangeattributabletoprice)$18.20(1997)$20.00(1998)10.2MM(1998)9.7MM(1997)PriceVolumeVariance(Partofrevenuechangeattributabletovolume)Covariance(partofrevenuechangeattributabletochangeinbothvolumeandprice)Thebestwaytoapproachvarianceanalysisproblemsistousetherectanglediagramstointuitivelyunderstandhowthechangesinthetwovariablesaccountforthechangeintheoverallquantity.TwoComponentVarianceExample-Jesse’sBrewery(3of6)VarianceAnalysis16Volume1998Revenue(P2xV2)1997Revenue(P