星火2011年12月四级模拟卷1

PARTIWriting[30MIN]writeashortessayentitledMyViewonCyberLanguage.1.网络语言越来越流行2不同的人有不同的看法3我认为……MyViewonCyberLanguagePARTIIReadingComprehension[SkimmingandScanning][15MIN]TheGlobalFoodCrisisandThomasMalthusLastyeartheskyrocketingcostoffoodwasawake-upcallfortheplanet.Between2005andthesummerof2008,thepriceofwheatandcorntripled,andthepriceofriceclimbedfivefold,spurringfoodriotsinnearlytwodozencountriesandpushing75millionmorepeopleintopoverty.Butunlikepreviousshocksdrivenbyshort-termfoodshortages,thispricespikecameinayearwhentheworld'sfarmersreapedarecordgraintrop.Thistime,thehighpriceswereasymptomofalargerproblemtuggingatthestrandsofourworldwidefoodweb,onethat'snotgoingawayanytimesoon.Simplyput:formostofthepastdecade,theworldhasbeenconsumingmorefoodthanithasbeenproducing.Afteryearsofdrawingdownstockpiles,in2007theworldhasseenglobalcarryoverstocksfallto61daysofglobalconsumption,thesecondlowestonrecord.”Agriculturalproductivitygrowthisonlyonetotwopercentayear,warnedJoachimvonBraun,directorgeneraloftheInternationalFoodPolityResearchInstituteinWashington,D.C.,attheheightofthecrisis.Thisistoolowtomeetpopulationgrowthandincreaseddemand:'Rebrospectian:Malthus'TheoryEversinceourancestorsgaveuphuntingandgatheringforplowingandplantingsome12,000yearsago,ournumbershavemarchedcorrespondingwithouragriculturalproductivityEachadvance--thedomesticationofanimals,irrigation,andwetriceproduction--ledtoacorrespondingjumpinhumanpopulation.Everytimefoodwasstatelysupplied,populationeventuallyleveledoff.EarlyArabandChinesewritersnotedtherelationshipbetweenpopulationandfoodresources,butitwasn’tuntiltheendofthe18thCenturythataBritishscholartriedtoexplaintheexactmechanismlinkingthetwo--andbecameperhapsthemastvilified(遭人辱骂的〕socialscientistinhistory.ThomasRobertMalthus,thenamesakeofsuchtermsasMalthusiancollapseandMalthusiancurse,wasamild-manneredmathematician,aclergyman-and,hiscriticswouldsay,theultimateglass-half-emptykindofguy.WhenafewEnlightenmentphilosophers,giddyfromthesuccessoftheFrenchRevolution,beganpredictingtilecontinuedimprovementofthehumancondition,Malthuscutthemoffattheknees.Humanpopulation,heobserved,increasesatageometricrate,doublingaboutevery25yearsifunchecked,whileagriculturalproductionincreasesarithmetically-muchmoreslowly.Thereinlayabiologicaltrapthathumanitycouldneverescape.Thepowerofpopulationisindefinitelygreaterthanthepowerintheearthtoproducesubsistenceforman,hewroteinhisEssayanthePrincipleofPopulationin1798.Thisimpliesastrongandconstantlyoperatingcheckonpopulationfromthedifficultysubsistence.Malthusthoughtsuchcheckscouldbevoluntary,suchasbirthcontrol,abstinence,ordelayedmarriage--orinvoluntary,throughthedisasterofwar,famine,anddisease.Headvocatedagainstfoodreliefforallbutthepoorestpeople,sincehefeltsuchaidencouragedmorechildrentobehornintomisery.ThattoughloveearnedhimabadnameinEnglishliteraturefromnoneotherthanCharlesDickens.WhenEbenezerScroogeisaskedtogivehelpforthepoorinAChristmasCarol,theheartlessbankertellsthedo-goodersthatthepoorshouldheadfortheworkhousesorprisons.Andifthey'dratherdiethangothere,theyhadbetterdoit,anddecreasethesurpluspopulation.RereadingMalthus'EssayOnabriskfalldaythathasputcolorintothecheeksofthemostdie-hardLondoners,IvisittheBritishLibraryandcheckoutthefirsteditionofthebookthatstillgeneratessuchheateddebate.Malthus'sEssayonthePrincipleofPopulationlookslikeaneighth-gradescienceprimer.Fromitsstrong,clearprosecomesthevoiceofahumbleparishpriestwhohoped,asmuchasanything,tobeprovedwrong.PeoplewhosayMalthusiswrongusuallyhaven'treadhim,saysTimDyson,aprofessorofpopulationstudiesattheLondonSchoolofEconomics.HewasnottakingaviewanydifferentthanwhatAdamSmithtookinthefirstvolumeofTheWealthofNations.Nooneintheirrightminddoubtstheideathatpopulationshavetolivewithintheirresourcebase.Andthatthecapacityofsocietytoincreaseresourcesfromthatbaseisultimatelylimited.Thoughhisessaysemphasizedpositivechecksonpopulationfromfamine,disease,andwar,hispreventativecheckshavebeenmoreimportant.Agrowingworkforce,Malthusexplained,depresseswages,whichtendstomakepeopledelaymarriageuntiltheycanbettersupportafamily.Delayingmarriagereducesfertilityrates,creatinganequallycheckonpopulations.IthasnowbeenshownthatthisisthebasicmechanismthatregulatedpopulationgrowthinwesternEuropeforsome300yearsbeforetheindustrialrevolution--aprettygoodrecordforanysocialscientist,saysDyson.YetwhenBritainrecentlyissuedanew20-poundnote,itputAdamSmithantheback,notTR.Malthus.Hedoesn'tfitthetrendofthemoment.Wedon'twanttothinkaboutlimits.Butasweapproachninebillionpeopleantheplanet,alldemandingthesameopportunities,thesamelifestyles,thesamehamburgers,weignorethematourrisks.Noneofthegreatclassicaleconomistssawtheindustrialrevolutioncoming,orthetransformationofeconomiesandagriculturethatitwouldbringabout.Thecheap,readilyavailableenergycontainedincoal--andlaterinotherfossilfuels--unreleasedthegreatestincreaseinfood,personalwealth,andpeopletheworldhaseverseen,enablingEarth'spopulationtoincreasesevenfoldsinceMalthus'day.Andyethunger,famine,andmalnutritionarewithusstill,