模型在省域研发与创新中的应用研究——吴玉鸣——模板

(),,31,,,,F06411AASpatialEconometricModelandItsApplicationtoResearch&DevelopmentandRegionalInnovationAbstract:UsingaspatialconstantOcoefficientregressionmodelwhichiscalledSpatialLagModelandSpatialErrorModel,andspatialvaryingOcoefficientregres2sionmodelwhichiscalledgeographicallyweightedregressionofspatialeconometricmethods,aspatialeconometricanalysisonresearchandexperimentaldevelopment(R&D)andinnovationofChinaps31provincialregionsisperformed1spatialecono2metricanalysisisperformed1TheglobalestimationresultsdiscoverthatenterpriseR&DhascontributiontotheinnovationcapabilityofChinas31provincialregionswhileuniversityR&Ddoesnotcontributeobviouslytotheprovincialinnovationca2pability1Thecombinationofuniversityandenterprisedoesnothavepositiveimpactoninnovationalso1ThelocalgeographicallyweighedregressionestimationresultsshowthatenterpriseR&Dcapabilityandhumancapitalhavepositiveimpactontheprovincialinnovationcompetence1Keywords:SpatialEconometricModels;KnowledgeProductionFunction(KPF);R&D;Innovation4720065(70463001)(Z0004094040112),,,(OLS),,,(,2005),,,,,(Anselin,1988),,,,,,,128,,(,2001),,,(,2004;,2005),,200020002003,31,:,31,,;,;,11,()(R&D),,(1)(KnowledgeProductionFunction,KPF),57,,()(Griliches,19791986;Acs,1992;Feldman,1994;Anselin,1997;BlindGrupp,1999;Bode,2004)Griliches(1979)(),CohenKlepper(19911992),R&D,,,,,,(Anselin,1997;BlindGrupp,1999;Bode,2004)(2),(),,,,,,,(Cheshire,Malecki,2004),,,,(LearningbyDoing),,,,(TacitKnowledge)(Sticky),,,R&D,21GrilichesJaffe(R&D)(Audrestch,1998;Audrestch,Feldman,1996;Bode,2004),R&D,K=f(R)(1),K,RKR,,K,K,Jaffe(1989)Griliches,6720065,(Audrestch,1998),,Griliches(19791986)Jaffe(1989),GrilichesOJaffe(Cobb2Douglas):Ki=RD91iZ92iei(2),K;RDR&D;Z,;e;i()GrilichesOJaffe:,,,Acs(1992),Feldman(1994),Anselin(1997),BlindGrupp(1999)Bode(2004),,,,,,Moran(),,,,11,MoranIMoranI:MoranI=ni=1nj=1Wij(Yi-Y)(Yj-Y)S2ni=1nj=1Wij(3)S2=1nni=1(Yi-Y),Y=1nni=1Yi,i,n,Wij,,,MoranIEn(I)=-1n-1VARn(I)=n2w1+nw2+3w20w20(n2-1)-E2n(I)(4)77,w0=ni=1nj=1wij,w1=12ni=1nj=1(wij+wji)2,w2=ni=1(wi+wj)2,wiwjij(5)nZ(d)=MoranI-E(I)VAR(I)(5)21(Anselin,2004)(),(Spa2tialLagModel,SLM)(SpatialErrorModel,SEM),(GeographicalWeightedRegression,GWR)(1)(SpatialLagModel,SLM)():y=Wy+X+(6),y;Xnk;;Wnn,(ContiguityMatrix);Wy,;(SpatialErrorModel,SEM):y=X+=W+(7),;n1;,yy,XySEM,;(OLS),,Anselin(1988)(SLM)(SEM);SLMSEM,MoranI(LagrangeMultiplier)LMERRLMLAG(Robust)ROLMERRROLMLAGSLMSEM,,Anselin(2004):,LMLAGLMERR,ROLMLAGROLMERR,;,LMERRLMLAG,ROLMERRROLMLAG,R2,(Loglikelihood,LogL),(LikelihoodRatio,LR),(Akaikeinformationcriterion,AIC),(Schwartzcriterion,SC)8720065,,AICSC,OLSSLMSEM,(2),,,(SpatialVaryingOCoefficientRegressionModel)(GeographicalWeightedRegression,GWR)i=1,2,,mj=1,2,,nxijyj,(Global)(8)yi=0+nj=1xijj+ii=1,2,,m(8)(8),,,j(OLS),(8)GWR,0,(Local)ij,GWR:yi=0(ui,vi)+kj=1k(ui,vi)xij+i(9),jjm1,(ui,vi)k+1GWRk,i,,(9),:logL=L[0(u,v),,k(u,v)|M]=-122ni=1yi-0(ui,vi)-kj=1k(ui,vi)xi2+(10),M=[yi,xij,(ui,vi),i=1,2,,n,j=1,2,,k](ML),HastieTibshirani(1993),^j^j=(XW2X)-1(XW2Y)(11),Wij^j(j=1,2,,k)GWRWij,Wij,()Wij(GaussianDistance)(Expo2nentialDistance)(TricubeDistance),,97,,31,,2001200220032004,2001:(I),(Jaffe,1989;AnselinBode,2004;BottazziPeri,2003;,2005)(Archibugi,1998),(,2002;Bode,2004),;(R&D)(R&D)2000(R&D),R&D(S)(U)(E)R&DGDP,;,,,,(),,,(H),;(R&D)R&D,,(Exp)(R&D),11,(I),,(S)(U)(E)R&DGDP,(Exp)R&DGDP(UExp)(H),:logIi=0+1logS+2logU+3logE+4logH+5logUExp+i,,i1,2,,31,,2000200120022003I,2000SUEHUExp,OLS,,,2002IOLS108200651OLS^^tpC-9156213212030-413406010002S-012840333011489-119071010681U011328011660018000014312E01622433012820212072010367H1115663012852410560010004UExp-010194010235-018267014162R2017605R2adj017126F15187453010000LogL-2318229AIC5916459SC6812498MI/DFpMoran()01203421309933010209LMLAG1118728011711ROLMLAG1010969017556LMERR1217384333010980ROLMERR1019625013266:33333310%5%1%(1)200231()Moran013600,MoranIZ0101(1196),31(),,(Clustering),,,,,,,(2),,,31,,,,OLS(OLS),MoranSLMSEM,1(ML)2182SLMSEMSLMSEMStd1EtpStd1EtpC-9108023119525-416506010000-9115813210160-415428010000S-012137011347-115866011126-011813011257-114429011490U010514011519013384017351010628011319014762016339E0154503301249921180701029201545633012252214230010154H11086030125464126620100001112353012670412078010000UExp-010151010206-017299014654-010159010179-018864013754/01218301167511303101192501461133011958213548010185DFpDFpR2017757017966LogL-2219717-2211243LR11170250119201313973010653333AIC59194345612486SC69198136418525:11,OLS3171126%,F1518745,1%,,,5%,5%,5%1%,,Moran31,OLS,:;,(),1Moran,Moran(),()(2109%),,1,LMERR10%,LMLAGROLMERRROLMLAG10%,SLMSEMLogLAICSCLogLLR,,SEM,,SLMSEM212,OLS,,ML,,,LogLAICSC,SEMLogL(-2211243),5%,SEMOLS,OLS2820065:,OLS,3GWRCtStUtEtHtUExpt-1011885-516288-013716-219907011724112424016879217977112224510391-010241-019382-1012649-516037-013718-219714011610111545016986218272112304510116-010249-019611-1012398-516035-013718-219751011660111918016872217722112311510148-010241-019269-1010523-515114-013664-219542011989114414015780212283112463419516-010163-015947-1011007-517583-013708-310540011782113075017393311777111852511466-010280-11