基于区域经济的区域物流需求分析最终稿

大连海事大学毕业论文二〇一二年六月┊┊┊┊┊┊┊装┊┊┊┊┊┊┊订┊┊┊┊┊┊┊线┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊┊基于区域经济的区域物流需求分析专业班级：航运管理姓名：指导教师：交通运输管理学院I摘要随着社会的进步和发展，物流业在居民的生活中发挥着越来越重要的作用。对物流需求的预测能有效的提高企业效率，整合物流资源。鉴于区域的物流与当地经济间有着不可分割的联系，因此，研究基于区域经济的区域物流需求显得尤为重要。本文首先分析了区域物流的内涵，定性分析阐述区域经济和区域物流的关系，继而采用神经网络模型进行定量研究，最后本文以大连为例，分析大连物流现状，研究大连市物流需求与大连经济发展之间的关系，并得出结论。结果表明，大连物流需求与第一产业产值、第二产业产值、第三产业产值、全社会固定资产投资总额、零售总额、居民消费水平有相关性，因此，大连物流需求量可以用这6项指标来预测。关键词：区域物流需求；区域经济；人工神经网络IIAbstractWithsocialprogressanddevelopment,thelogisticsindustryinpeople'slifeplaysamoreandmoreimportantrole.Thepredictionoflogisticsdemandcaneffectivelyimprovetheenterpriseefficiencyandtheintegrationoflogisticsresources,Inviewoftheregionallogisticsandthelocaleconomyitsinseparableconnectionbetween,Therefore,thestudyofregionaleconomybasedonregionallogisticsdemandisparticularlyimportant.Thispaperfirstlyanalyzestheconnotationoftheregionallogistics.Thequalitativeanalysisofregionaleconomyandexpoundstherelationshipbetweentheregionallogistics,andthenusingneuralnetworkmodelforquantitativestudy.Finally,thispaperuseDalianasanexample,analysesthepresentsituationofDalianlogistics,theDalianlogisticsdemandandDalianeconomicdevelopment,andtherelationshipbetweenconclusions.TheresultsshowthatDalianlogisticsdemandandthefirstindustry,outputvalueofthesecondaryindustry,outputvalueofthethirdindustry,outputvalueofinvestmentinfixedassetsinthewholesociety,thetotalretailsales,consumptionratehaverelevance,therefore,Dalianlogisticsdemandcanusethis6indicatorstopredict.Keywords:Regionallogisticsdemand；Regionaleconomic；ArtificialneuralnetworkIII目录第1章绪论............................................................................................................11.1研究背景..............................................................................................11.2文献回顾..............................................................................................11.2.1区域物流和区域经济发展的关系..............................................11.2.2物流需求分析..............................................................................21.3研究目的与意义..................................................................................31.4研究思路及内容..................................................................................4第2章区域物流的基本概念..............................................................................52.1区域物流..............................................................................................52.1.1区域物流的涵义.............................................................................52.1.2区域物流的基本特征.....................................................................52.2区域物流的基本内容..........................................................................62.2.1区域物流的组成和分类.................................................................62.2.2区域物流的业务类型.....................................................................82.2.3区域物流资源整合的基本方向和目标.........................................8第3章区域物流与区域经济的关系..................................................................103.1区域经济对物流网络的扩散效应....................................................103.2区域经济产生的带动作用................................................................113.3贸易对区域物流的拉动作用............................................................11第4章区域物流需求分析模型........................................................................134.1考虑各因素的综合的神经网络方法......................................................134.2确定拓扑结构.........................................................................................134.3计算隐含单元的输入与输出..................................................................144.4计算输出单元的输入和输出..................................................................14第5章实例研究................................................................................................175.1大连物流业发展的经济基础..................................................................175.1.1宏观经济环境...............................................................................175.1.2微观经济环境..............................................................................175.2大连物流需求状况..........................................................................................185.2.1国际物流需求分析...............................................................................185.2.2国内物流需求分析...............................................................................215.2.3都市配送物流需求分析.......................................................................24IV5.3基于神经网络模型的大连物流需求预测分析......................................25第6章结论........................................................................................................276.1研究成果.........................................................................................276.2不足之处..........................................................................................27参考文献..........................................................................................................28致谢................................................................................................................29基于区域经济的区域物流需求分析1第1章绪论1.1研究背景市场经济的繁