第四Forecasting运营管理笔记

PowerPointpresentationtoaccompanyHeizer/Render–PrinciplesofOperationsManagement,5e,andOperationsManagement,7e©2004byPrenticeHall,Inc.,UpperSaddleRiver,N.J.074584-1OperationsOperationsManagementManagementForecastingForecastingChapter4Chapter4PowerPointpresentationtoaccompanyHeizer/Render–PrinciplesofOperationsManagement,5e,andOperationsManagement,7e©2004byPrenticeHall,Inc.,UpperSaddleRiver,N.J.074584-2OutlineOutline♦GLOBALCOMPANYPROFILE:TUPPERWARECORPORATION♦WHATISFORECASTING?♦ForecastingTimeHorizons♦TheInfluenceofProductLifeCycle♦TYPESOFFORECASTS♦THESTRATEGICIMPORTANCEOFFORECASTING♦HumanResources♦Capacity♦Supply-ChainManagement♦SEVENSTEPSINTHEFORECASTINGSYSTEMPowerPointpresentationtoaccompanyHeizer/Render–PrinciplesofOperationsManagement,5e,andOperationsManagement,7e©2004byPrenticeHall,Inc.,UpperSaddleRiver,N.J.074584-3OutlineOutline--ContinuedContinued♦FORECASTINGAPPROACHES♦OverviewofQualitativeMethods♦OverviewofQuantitativeMethods♦TIME-SERIESFORECASTING♦DecompositionofTimeSeries♦NaïveApproach♦MovingAverages♦ExponentialSmoothing♦ExponentialSmoothingwithTrendAdjustment♦TrendProjections♦SeasonalVariationsinData♦CyclicVariationsinDataPowerPointpresentationtoaccompanyHeizer/Render–PrinciplesofOperationsManagement,5e,andOperationsManagement,7e©2004byPrenticeHall,Inc.,UpperSaddleRiver,N.J.074584-4OutlineOutline--ContinuedContinued♦ASSOCIATIVEFORECASTINGMETHODS:REGRESSIONANDCORRELATIONANALYSIS♦UsingRegressionAnalysistoForecast♦StandardErroroftheEstimate♦CorrelationCoefficientsforRegressionLines♦Multiple-RegressionAnalysis♦MONITORINGANDCONTROLLINGFORECASTS♦AdaptiveSmoothing♦FocusForecasting♦FORECASTINGINTHESERVICESECTORPowerPointpresentationtoaccompanyHeizer/Render–PrinciplesofOperationsManagement,5e,andOperationsManagement,7e©2004byPrenticeHall,Inc.,UpperSaddleRiver,N.J.074584-5LearningObjectivesLearningObjectivesWhenyoucompletethischapter,youshouldbeableto:IdentifyorDefine:♦Forecasting♦Typesofforecasts♦Timehorizons♦ApproachestoforecastsPowerPointpresentationtoaccompanyHeizer/Render–PrinciplesofOperationsManagement,5e,andOperationsManagement,7e©2004byPrenticeHall,Inc.,UpperSaddleRiver,N.J.074584-6LearningObjectivesLearningObjectives--continuedcontinuedWhenyoucompletethischapter,youshouldbeableto:DescribeorExplain:♦Movingaverages♦Exponentialsmoothing♦Trendprojections♦Regressionandcorrelationanalysis♦MeasuresofforecastaccuracyPowerPointpresentationtoaccompanyHeizer/Render–PrinciplesofOperationsManagement,5e,andOperationsManagement,7e©2004byPrenticeHall,Inc.,UpperSaddleRiver,N.J.074584-7ForecastingatTupperwareForecastingatTupperware♦Eachof50profitcentersaroundtheworldisresponsibleforcomputerizedmonthly,quarterly,and12-monthsalesprojections♦Theseprojectionsareaggregatedbyregion,thenglobally,atTupperware’sWorldHeadquarters♦TupperwareusesalltechniquesdiscussedintextPowerPointpresentationtoaccompanyHeizer/Render–PrinciplesofOperationsManagement,5e,andOperationsManagement,7e©2004byPrenticeHall,Inc.,UpperSaddleRiver,N.J.074584-8ThreeKeyFactorsforTupperwareThreeKeyFactorsforTupperware♦Thenumberofregistered“consultants”orsalesrepresentatives♦Thepercentageofcurrently“active”dealers(thisnumberchangeseachweekandmonth)♦Salesperactivedealer,onaweeklybasisPowerPointpresentationtoaccompanyHeizer/Render–PrinciplesofOperationsManagement,5e,andOperationsManagement,7e©2004byPrenticeHall,Inc.,UpperSaddleRiver,N.J.074584-9TupperwareTupperware--ForecastbyForecastbyConsensusConsensus♦Althoughinputscomefromsales,marketing,finance,andproduction,finalforecastsaretheconsensusofallparticipatingmanagers.♦ThefinalstepisTupperware’sversionofthe“juryofexecutiveopinion”PowerPointpresentationtoaccompanyHeizer/Render–PrinciplesofOperationsManagement,5e,andOperationsManagement,7e©2004byPrenticeHall,Inc.,UpperSaddleRiver,N.J.074584-10WhatisForecasting?WhatisForecasting?♦Processofpredictingafutureevent♦Underlyingbasisofallbusinessdecisions♦Production♦Inventory♦Personnel♦FacilitiesSaleswillbe$200Million!PowerPointpresentationtoaccompanyHeizer/Render–PrinciplesofOperationsManagement,5e,andOperationsManagement,7e©2004byPrenticeHall,Inc.,UpperSaddleRiver,N.J.074584-11♦Short-rangeforecast♦Upto1year;usuallylessthan3months♦Jobscheduling,workerassignments♦Medium-rangeforecast♦3monthsto3years♦Sales&productionplanning,budgeting♦Long-rangeforecast♦3+years♦Newproductplanning,facilitylocationTypesofForecastsbyTimeTypesofForecastsbyTimeHorizonHorizonPowerPointpresentationtoaccompanyHeizer/Render–PrinciplesofOperationsManagement,5e,andOperationsManagement,7e©2004byPrenticeHall,Inc.,UpperSaddleRiver,N.J.074584-12ShortShort--termvs.Longertermvs.Longer--termForecastingtermForecasting♦Medium/longrangeforecastsdealwithmorecomprehensiveissuesandsupportmanagementdecisionsregardingplanningandproducts,plantsandprocesses.♦Short-termforecastingusuallyemploysdifferentmethodologiesthanlonger-termforecasting♦Short-termforecaststendtobemoreaccuratethanlonger-termforecasts.PowerPointpresentationtoaccompanyHeizer/Render–PrinciplesofOperationsManagement,5e,andOperationsManagement,7e©20