基于Delphi法的转产项目建设风险

20001212:100026788(2000)1220113206Delphi1,1,2,2(11,410073;21,,710049):(ÉÊË),L:Ê,,Ë,,DelphiL:;;:TP801aTheStudyofSwitchProjectConstructionRiskIdentificationEvaluationandTackingBasedonDelphiMethodXUDeng2chao1,SHAJi2chang1,ZHANGPeng2zhu2,WANBai2wu2(1.NationalUniversityofDefenceTechnology,Changsha410073;2.Xi’anJiaotongUniversity,Xi’an710049)Abstract:Inthisarticletheexistingthreekindsriskanalysismethods(É,Ê,Ë)areanalyzedandtheirshortcomingsarediscussed.Thencompositeriskanalysismethodisused.Thecompositeanalysismethod’sbasicideais:usethemethodÊ’sanalysisprocessandtackingmethod,usefuzzymethodËsmethodtogetriskfactor’srate.Inordertogetcorrectobjectiveandunbiasedevaluationofexpents,theDelphimethod’sgo2backmechanismisused.Keywords:riskanalysis;decision;fuzzy1,,L,,L,,LL,L,[1]L(É),,[13]L,,,L,La:1998206215©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,L,,,,,[2],L,(Ê),[4]LXij,p,q(),XiR=f(p,q)=pqZ()Z,,,Z,Z,,,Z,,,,,Z,,ZZ,Z,[58],,,(Ë)Z,,ÊZ:,,,ZDelphi,ÊË,ÊË,Z:Ê,Xijp,q,Ë,,,DelphiZ,2,;3;4;5Z2211,,,,,,Z:1);2)?3)Z21111Xi,:123,:1);2);3);4);5)(),:1);2);3);4);5)Z411200012©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.21112,:1);2);3);4);5);6)Z,:1);2);3);4)Z,:1);2);3);4)Z,:1);2);3);4);5)Z,:1);2);3);4);5);6)Z::1);2);3)4);5);6)Z:1);3);2);4)Z:1);3);2);4)Z:1);4);2);5);3);6)Z:1);4);2);5);3);6)Z,1Z1X1X2X3X4X5X11X21X31X41X51X12X22X32X42X52X13X23X33X43X53X14X24X34X44X54X15X45X55X16X46X5651112Delphi©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.21113Delphi,,,,,,Z,Z,,Z,,,Z,Delphie,,,LDelphi,L,Delphi:Step1NZStep2,XijQ(Q=nN,n),ZStep3,2ZStep4,ZStep5,,Z212Xij,p,q,[4]R=f(p,q)=põq,p,q,XijRZ,Xijpq:1)Z,,Zp,qZ2)Z,Z,Z,p,qZ,p,qZZ,:Z,,,,,Z,Z,Z,,,,,Z,Z21211:[9]1)AU,vU,vAAv,A,vZvAUxP,xv:P(v=x)=P(x)=1xA0,A,v,AvTAZP(v=x)=P(x)=LA(x),Z2)611200012©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,Z,,,,,,Z:ZZ3)XijXij,pZ,p,ZpZ0p1,Xij,p[0,1],x[0,1],P(p,x)px,P(p,x)Xij,P(x)Z,qP(q,x)q=x,P(q,x)Xij,P(x)Z21212Xij3Xij,[7,8]()Z21213Xij4Xij,(Xijq)Z3Xij1:(EL)N1=(0,0,0.125)2:(VL)N2=(0,0.125,0.25)3:(L)N3=(0.125,0.25,0.375)4:(SL)N4=(0.25,0.375,0.5)5:(M)N5=(0.375,0.5,0.625)6:(SH)N6=(0.5,0.625,0.75)7:(H)N7=(0.625,0.75,0.875)8:(VH)N8=(0.75,0.875,1)9:(EH)N9=(0.875,1,1)4Xijqij1:M1=(0,0,0.125C)2:M2=(0,0.125C,0.25C)3:M3=(0.125C,0.25C,0.375C)4:M4=(0.25C,0.375C,0.5C)5:M5=(0.375C,0.5C,0.625C)6:M6=(0.5C,0.625C,0.75C)7:M7=(0.625C,0.75C,0.875C)8:M8=(0.75C,0.875C,1C)9:M9=(0.875C,1C,1C)(C),Xij,Xijqij:yij=qijC,yijqij,qijZqij,Xijqij(5)Z71112Delphi©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.5qij1:N1=(0,0,0.125)2:N2=(0,0.125,0.25)3:N3=(0.125,0.25,0.375)4:N4=(0.25,0.375,0.5)5:N5=(0.375,0.5,0.625)6:N6=(0.5,0.625,0.75)7:N7=(0.625,0.75,0.875)8:N8=(0.75,0.875,1)9:N9=(0.875,1,1)21214Xij,Rij=f(p,q)=pijqij,pij,qij,RijRij=pijõqijqijLRij(x)=LpijLqij(x),RijZR:R=baxLRij(x)dxbaLRij(x)dx(Xijp,qDelphi,3Delphi)Z:[1]1[D]1,19961[2]1[M]1:,19961[3]1[M]1,19921[4]1[J]1,1995,15(10):55581[5]PamelaMccanley2Bell.FuzzyModelingandAnalyticHierarchyProcessing2MeanstoquantyfyRiskLevelsAssociatedwithOccupationalInjuries.PartÉ[J].IEEETransactionsonFuzzySystems,1996,4(2):236242.[6]PamelaMcCanley2Bell.FuzzyModelingandAnalyticHierarechyAssociatedwithOcupationalInjurics:PartÊ[J]LIEEETransactionsonFuzzySystems,1996,4(2):243249.[7]LeeHM.Applyingfuzzysettheorytoevavatetherateofaggregativeriskinsoftwaredevelopment[J].FuzzSetandSystems,1996,(79):323336.[8]LeeHM.Group2decisionmakingusingfuzzysetstheoryforevauatingtherateofaggregativeriskinsoftwaredevelopment[J].FuzzySetsandSystem,1996,(80):261271.[9]1[M]1:,19911811200012©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.