新能源行业：产业发展路径：从特许权招标到上网电价

本研究报告通过网站仅提供SW108网站临时用户SharedUser(sw-11)使用1IndustryIndustryResearch新能源,2010年8月12日新能源月报——产业发展路径：从特许权招标到上网电价Overweight投资要点:维持最近研究报告““2H2010-1H2011policyoutlook–policydrivenopportunitiesinrenewableenergyandnewenergycarsectors”Jul16,2010““Renewableenergy:wepreferoperators”Apr26,2010“LongyuanPower(916HK)–Robustgrowthin2009”Mar30,2010“LongyuanPower(916HK)–Buyandholdthefuture”Mar05,2010“ChinaWindPower(182HK)–TakeawaysFromlastFriday’sReverseRoadshowInShenyang“GCL-Poly(3800HK)–Wafercapacityrampup吴弢分析师[e-mail]陈文谦分析师[e-mail]郭翼分析师[e-mail]联系人姚文婉(8621)23297818×[e-mail]根据我们对中国新能源特许权招标机制的深入研究，在一个新兴产业的发展过程中（例如：陆上风电和太阳能运用），我们相信存在着典型的三阶段。第一阶段：特许权招标的开始；第二阶段：初步制定发展规划，增长提速，技术水平提升成本大幅下降；第三阶段：上网电价机制形成，行业增速逐渐下降陆上风电发展已进入了第三阶段。我们相信未来年新增装机容量的增速将逐步下降。海上风电近期成为市场的热点，但我们重申海上风电在未来2-3年不太可能看到装机容量的大幅提升的观点。第一轮海上风电与第二轮太阳能光伏发电项目的特许权招标分别于2010年5月与6月开始，我们相信海上风电与太阳能光伏运用目前均处在产业发展的“第一阶段”在每一阶段，产业链上的收益者通常出现在不同位置。第一阶段：上游原料与部件制造商；第二阶段：中游整机与组件制造商；第三阶段：下游运营商。我们偏好太阳能光伏行业的上游制造商与风电行业的下游运营商。我们认为国内的太阳能光伏运用将先于海上风电发展提速股票选择：龙源电力（0916.HK，买入，港币12.14）：行业内拥有着超过20%市场份额最具统治力的企业。龙源电力具备优良的基本面，长远而可靠的发展规划及目标以及目前已提速的CDM项目注册流程。中国风电（0812.HK，买入，港币1.43）：我们预测中国风电2010年上半年发电量可达到500兆千万时，显著高于2009年全年296兆千万时的发电量。此外，每年新增12个风电场的能力有理由让我们相信中国风电可以维持其高速增长的趋势。保利协鑫（3800.HK，买入，港币2.80）：GCL宣布将投资3亿美元建设1000兆瓦的硅晶片产业，公司预计年底可以实施投产。我们相信这一投资将大大有助于其获得更多市场份额。八月推荐:2010申万预测代码公司评级目标价(港元)营业利润(百万)增长率(%)净收入(百万)增长率(%)买入916HK龙源电力买入12.14RMB11,01215.28RMB1,906113.12182HK中国风电买入1.43HK$1,02682.4HK$32981.33800HK保利协鑫买入2.80HK$12,07096.12HK$2,651N/ASource:SWSResearchThecompanyoritsaffiliatemayhaveequitiesofthelistedcorporationreviewedauthorizedbylaw.Thecompanymayalsoprovideinvestmentbankingandconsultingservicetothelistedcorporation.TheCompanyfulfillsitsdutyofdis[e-mail]rehensiveunderstandingofthedisclosureinthelastpage.本研究报告通过网站仅提供SW108网站临时用户SharedUser(sw-11)使用2Aug2010IndustryCommentsPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresPage1InvestmentHighlight：AccordingtoouranalysisofChina’sconcessionbiddingmechanism,thedevelopmentofemergingindustriessuchasonshorewindpowerandphotovoltaics(PV)typicallygothroughthreephases:PhaseI:thebeginningofconcessionbidding;PhaseII:initialdevelopmentplanisreleased;companiesseeincreasedgrowthwheretherehasbeenalargedeclineincostsandimprovementsintechnology;PhaseIII:theestablishmentofon-gridtariffs,andaslowinggrowthrate.OnshorewindpowerhasenteredPhaseIIIandweexpectthegrowthrateofannualinstalledcapacitytodeclinegradually.Offshorewindpowerhasbecomeahottopic,butwereiterateourviewthatitmaytakeupto2-3yearsbeforeweseeasignificantrampupininstalledcapacity.WebelievebothoffshorewindandsolarPVapplicationsarenowinPhaseIasthesecondroundofPVpowerstationandthefirstroundofoffshorewindfarmconcessionbiddingwerelaunchedinMayandJunerespectively.Eachphasebenefitscompaniesindifferentareasoftheindustry:PhaseI:upstreamrawmaterialandcomponentcompanies;PhaseII:midstreamassemblers;PhaseIII:downstreamoperators.WethereforepreferupstreamplayersinthesolarPVindustryanddownstreamdevelopersinthewindpowerindustry.WebelievetherewillbeanaccelerationindomesticsolarPVapplicationsbeforeoffshorewindpower.Stockpicks:LongyuanPower(916HK,Buy,HK$12.14):themostdominantplayerintheindustrywithamarketshareofover20%.WelikeLongyuanPowerduetoitssolidfundamentals,promisingdevelopmenttargetsandsmoother-than-expectedCDMprojectregistration.ChinaWindPower(182HK,Buy,HK$1.43):WeexpectCWP’stotalgenerationin1H10tobeover500MkWh,significantlyhigherthanthe296MkWhinFY09.Furthermore,withtheabilitytoput12newwindfarmsintooperationeachyear,webelievethecompanywillmaintainthisrapidgrowthrate.GCL-Poly(3800HK,Buy,HK$2.80):GCLannouncedthatitplanstoinvestanadditionalUSD300Minthesiliconwaferbusinesstogainadditionalcapacityofapproximately1GW.Thecompanyexpectsthisnewcapacitytobeonlinebyendofthisyear.Webelievethisisanimportantfactoringainingmarketshare.本研究报告通过网站仅提供SW108网站临时用户SharedUser(sw-11)使用3Aug2010IndustryCommentsPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresPage2InvestmentCaseValuationandTargetPriceLongyuanPower(916HK,Buy,HK$12.14)ChinaWindPower(182HK,Buy,HK$1.43)GCL-Poly(3800HK,Buy,HK$2.80)KeyAssumptionsToachievethegovernment’stargetof15%ofprimaryenergyconsumptioncomingfromnon-fossilfuelsby2020,itwillputfurthereffortintothedevelopmentofcleanenergy.HowwedifferfromconsensusWebelievethatonshorewindpowerisnowatarelativelymaturestage.Weexpectthegrowthrateofannualinstalledcapacitytodecreasegradually.Offshorewindpowerhasrecentlybecomethemarket’sfocus,butwereiterateourviewthatitmaytakeupto2-3yearsbeforeweseeasignificantrampupininstalledcapacity.WebelievedomesticsolarPVapplicationswillexperienceanincreasebeforeoffshorewindpower.Webelievethatturbinemanufacturerswillbenegativelyaffectedby:1)decliningturbinesprices;2)slowingdemandgrowthforturbines;3)offshoreturbineshavenotyetreachedastageofgrowth.Windfarmdeveloperswillbenefitfrom:1)stableon-gridtariffs;2)decliningturbinecostsandtotal