关于战略流程的报告(1)

ITES/BPO–Opportunitytomoveupthevaluechain?January13,2004Thisreportissolelyfortheuseofclientpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionoutsidetheclientorganizationwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinsey&Company.ThismaterialwasusedbyMcKinsey&Companyduringanoralpresentation;itisnotacompleterecordofthediscussion.PresentationatiTECH200420030520DL-ZXE332(ITES,BoardPres.)(JS)-71Source:Gartner;Dataquest;Aberdeengroup;McKinseyanalysisSupply-sideenablers•Telecomcostsdownby90%inthelast3years;world-classreliability•Over2.5millionlow-costtalentedworkersincountriessuchasIndiaandPhilippines•Emergenceofacrediblevendorcommunity0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0BPOtotalrevenues-Indiaexample*$billionCONTEXT:BUSINESSPROCESSOFFSHORINGHASEXPLODEDINTHELASTFEWYEARS…•Encouragingtrackrecordofearlymovers•DemandingU.Smarketenvironment•SuccessfultrackrecordofI/ToffshoringDemandsideforces20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES,BoardPres.)(JS)-72“TechjobsleaveU.S.forIndia,Russia.Who’stoblame?”–July2003“Isyourjobnext?”–February2003…BUTHASALSOCREATEDGREATANXIETYINPRIMARYMARKETS“AmericanlegislatorsareaccusingIndiaofstealingjobs”–June2003“America’spain,India’sgain”–January2003“3.3millionU.S.servicejobstogooffshoreby2015”–November2002“CanAmericaLoseTheseJobsandStillProsper?”–July2003U.S.HouseSub-businessCommittee20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES,BoardPres.)(JS)-73INTHISCONTEXT,SEVERALDOUBTSHAVEARISENABOUTTHEFUNDAMENTALLONGEVITYANDEVOLUTIONOFBPOASANINDUSTRY•WilltheBPOphenomenonplateauoutinthenextfewyears?•Evenifitsurvives,movingupthevaluechainwillbedifficultandwilltakeseveralyears?•Valuechainmoveswillbethedomainofcaptivesbecausethetrustrequiredistoohigh?20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES,BoardPres.)(JS)-74INTHISCONTEXT,SEVERALDOUBTSHAVEARISENABOUTTHEFUNDAMENTALLONGEVITYANDEVOLUTIONOFBPOASANINDUSTRY•WilltheBPOphenomenonplateauoutinthenextfewyears?•Evenifitsurvives,movingupthevaluechainwillbedifficultandwilltakeseveralyears?•Valuechainmoveswillbethedomainofcaptivesbecausethetrustrequiredistoohigh?20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES,BoardPres.)(JS)-750.33*EstimatebasedonhistoricalU.S.reemploymenttrendsSource:McKinseyGlobalInstitute1.OFFSHORINGACTUALLYGENERATESGREATERVALUEFORTHEGLOBALECONOMY•Taxes($0.04)•Revenues($0.20)•Localsuppliers($0.09)...deliversvaluetoIndia...0.67•Costsavings($0.58)•Goodssold($0.05)•ProfitsfromIndianventures($0.04)...bringsreturnstoU.S....1.45-1.47...andmakestheglobalpiethatmuchbigger0.45-0.47...createsnewvaluefromre-employingU.S.labor*...$1previouslyspentinU.S.,nowoffshoredtoIndia...$1.0020030520DL-ZXE332(ITES,BoardPres.)(JS)-760.030.330.100.090.100.01ProfitsretainedinIndiaINDIACAPTURES33CENTSFROMEACHDOLLAROFSPENDOFFSHOREDBYTHEU.S.Valueaccruedfrom$1ofU.S.spendoffshored1Dollars;2002Centralgovern-ment3Stategovern-ment4TotalvalueaccruedtoIndiaLaborSuppliers2Offshoringsector1EstimatedusingtheIndiaoffshoredservicesindustrycase2Includesrevenueaccruedtothesupplierindustrieslesssalestaxes,incometaxestoemployeesandcorporatetaxes3Includesincometaxfromlaboremployedintheoffshoredservicessectorandthesupplierindustriesandcorporatetaxonthesupplierindustries4IncludessalestaxonthesupplierindustriesandrevenuefromthesaleofpowertooffshoredserviceprovidersSource:McKinseyGlobalInstitute20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES,BoardPres.)(JS)-77JOBSOFFSHOREDWILLBEASMALLFRACTIONOFTHESHORTAGEINELIGIBLEWORKERSNumberofworkersMillions,2000-2015Source:U.S.Census;McKinseyGlobalInstitute3.315.6JobsprojectedtogooffshoreDeclineinworkingpopulationduetoaging20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES,BoardPres.)(JS)-781.170.270.21JOBSOFFSHOREDAREAFRACTIONOFALLMASSLAYOFFS1Bureauoflaborstatisticsdefinesmasslayoffsasjoblossactionsleadingtothedisplacementof50ormoreworkersbyagivenestablishmentduringa5-weekperiod2Average1996-993Average1989-20004Average2003-13Source:NBER;BLS;Kletzer;McKinseyGlobalInstituteAverageannualmasslayoffs1MillionsAllmasslayoffs2Offshoringprojection4Trade-relatedlayoffs320030520DL-ZXE332(ITES,BoardPres.)(JS)-79Economicvalueofoff-shoringreal•Off-shoringcreates40-50%greatervaluefortheglobaleconomy•Indiacaptures33%ofeveryoff-shoreddollarwhiletheUSretains67%andtheincremental40-50%valuecreation•Off-shoredjobssmallfractionofexpectedretirements/lay-offsTHEREFORE,BUSINESSLOGICWOULDINDICATETHATBPOHERETOSTAY…BUTWILLREQUIREHANDLINGCUSTOMERCONCERNSWITHCOMPASSIONNegativeemotionalimpactatthecustomerequallyreal•Realpeopleandcommunitiesareeffected•Re-trainingtakestime•Manufacturinghang-overstillfelt20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES,BoardPres.)(JS)-710INTHISCONTEXT,SEVERALDOUBTSHAVEARISENABOUTTHEFUNDAMENTALLONGEVITYANDEVOLUTIONOFBPOASANINDUSTRY•WilltheBPOphenomenonplateauoutinthenextfewyears?•Evenifitsurvives,movingupthevaluechainwillbedifficultandwilltakeseveralyears?•Valuechainmoveswillbethedomainofcaptivesbecausethetrustrequiredistoohigh?20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES,BoardPres.)(JS)-711Completedthefirstroundofoff-shoringsuccessfully•BuiltsubstantialscaleinoperationsinIndia•Penetrated1-2businessesindepth•StartedcapturinglabourcostsavingsBaseA:“Accelerate,extendbreadthanddepth”•Increasebreadthanddepthofservices•Strengthenandstabilizearchi