望亭发电有限公司竞价上网报价策略研究

上海交通大学硕士学位论文望亭发电有限公司竞价上网报价策略研究姓名：沈桂男申请学位级别：硕士专业：动力工程指导教师：忻建华;张克纯20050301320045185917115BP(MCP)4MCP965STUDINGOFPRICECOMPETITIONSTRATEGYFORWANGTINGPOWERPLANTABSTRACTNowadays,thenationwidedivisionoftheplantandgridhasfinished.AndtheelectricalmarketconstructionhasbeensetupinZhejiang,Shanghai,Shandong,Liaoning,Jiling,andHeilongjiangProvincetomakeexperienceofpricecontest.Theelectricalintheseareasismainlybaseoncontracttransaction,andthespottransactionisuseasaauxiliarymethod.TheEastChinaElectricalMarkettriedtooperationonMay18th,2004.Thereare59powerplants,totally171units,andtheyarenowmakecompetitionfor15%electricalpowerofChina.WangtingPowerGenerationCo.isoneofthem,anditliesinSuzhou,whichdevelopedveryfastrecently.Butthecoaltransportisnotveryconvenienthere,therequirementsforenvironmentprotectionisveryhigh.ThisessaymainlymadeaanalysisforthecostandthecoalqualityaffectioninWangting,workedoutatotalgenerationcostfunction,andputitintocostaccounting.MadeaforecastforMCPbyBP6neuralnetwork,andaccordingtotheresearchofpricecompetitionstrategy,makeapricecompetitionstrategysuitableforWangting.First,thispaperanalyzedthecostaccounting,anddividedthegenerationcostintotwoparts.Thatiscapacitycost(fixedcost)andelectricalvolumecost.Putthefixedcapitolcost,fixedoperationcost,loan,fixedtax,capacityprofitandmanagementcostintocapacitycost.Andputwatercost,laborcost,materialcost,fuelcost,maintenancecostandvariabletaxintoelectricalvolumecost.Calculatethesetwocostsrespectively,andgetthemaincostfunction.Furthermore,wecannotomitthecostfortheunitstartup.Consideringtheloaddifferencebetweenpeakandvalebecomeslarge,thestartupcostcannotbeomitted.Inthisessay,weusedthesharemethodtoputthestartupcostintothepricecost.Accordingtothepowerplantrealstatus,thefirecoalqualitycannotbesameallthetime,thispapermakearelativecurveforthecoallowheatvolumeandthegenerationcostbyresearch,andthiscurvecouldbeatestifymaterialoftheelectricityprice.Second,fromthestandpointofapowergenerationenterpriseandwiththeaimofobtainingmaximumprofits,thispapersetupaforecast-modelofMCPaccordingtotheneutralnetwork.Theresultisstable,andsuitforthe7realpricechanging.Sincetheforecastprecisionisrelatedtotheforecastdatedeeply,themodelmusthaveaverydetailcharacterofdate.So,intherealforecast,theoperatormustconsiderthechangingofelectricitypowermarket,adjustthemodelparameterintime,andensurethehigherprecision.Atlast,inthispaper,accordingtothepricecontestmodelandrule,thepriceatwhichthemarketclearsnexttradingdayispredictedonaneuralnetworkmodelwhile96pointsquotingcurveisbasedonpowergenerationpricecompetitionmethodsundergametheoryKEYWORDS:costaccounting,loadcurve,pricecompetitionstrategy,neuralnetwork,gametheory10ACCay/hC0/MWhiPMWPc/MWhPm/MWhPr/MWhQcMWhQgMWhTRY/h1200503282200503282005032811.1[1]06~071999[2]2002122925411[3]21.2[4][5]19871998[47]31996101595l234541.2.3.1[8][9]+200085152001200280%20483010.7/4848RQgPm+Qc(Pc-Pm)=(Qg-Qc)Pm+QcPc5RQcQgPcPm20001158277.0658.6886.2613.742-128200.00075/1.1()(%)()(%)(%)(/MWh)()200050052.0277.0658.686.25301.860.282200168265.7400.3375.280.04317.041.9861.2.3.21999826200011[8][10]l01015COC961MW7COCAGCAGCAGC200010%20000.267/0.302/1.281.2.3.3[8]1.2.3.4[8]92921999919994.620002001720002822000200011.6220011ECETS9696151.22001+-”10-5449525627072724763245-573576-210148-620071411861294143870721872-24504875119150846-26690376173-575448349001.2.4.1():(1)(2)11(3)1.2.4.2[11]24121.3[12][13]132004518abll()44cdef()141.41215345961.51.2.[1998]1463.4.[M]5.[M]6.1999232187.[J]2004213158.9.2002269262910.20022621232811.,12.13.16[1]2003626COE1COD2COF3COM[2]COD()COF172.1()[3][1](1)(1)1nniiAQi+=+-2-1()%AKq+2-218RSKqAPr×+=2-3SMW:14.5Q=14.5*100000000300MWR=300*10002400/2000/;4000/300MW;140MW5.76%I=0.0576:20n=202501000024.11)0576.01()0576.010576.0100005.141)1()1(2020×=-++×××=-++=nniiiQAqq=2400+2000+4000=8400A+q=2.08*10000191195.01000*300*580010000*10000*08.2==×+=RSKqAPr/(kWh)S5800K1119.5/MWh358562.21()23[5][6]PCPdbPaPC++=2(2-4)abd2-4PPdbaPC/0++=(2-5)20C0/MWhC02-4PbaPC+=2'(2-6)P1MWC`2.1CC0C`aCaCa0C`a0C`bCbCdCP=0CCdC0CC`C2-4DCSdOCC0CPPmaxPminC0,maxC0minCminCmaxCC0C2.1Fig2.1Thecostcurveofparabola21500/2-1Cay=0.514167p2+65.9166p+250.003(2-6)PMWCay/2-1MW/12024244.9014027387.3616030392.9618033308.5020036179.5222039050.4424041967.7426044975.6328048120.8030051447.2422maxavFCCSPHa=+10S⎧=⎨⎩2-7avC/MWhC/MWhFa80%HhmaxPMWS11300MW2004112004200323200482427111820041~81200kJ/kga.b.c.812%4660/kg9356024509040%200320042-22-2#111-782003FCy()%46.3547.142004FCy()%43.9243.26FCy%-2.42-3.88FCyg/kWh0.16830.1785FCyg/kWh-0.41-0.692003Ay%25.9626.40242004Ay%29.2532.82Ay%3.296.42Ayg/kWh0.28380.2924Ayg/kWh0.931.882003QdwykJ/kg21860218602004QdwykJ/kg2061620080QdwyMJ/kg-1.2440-1.7800Qdwyg/kWh-1.3398-1.4110Qdwyg/kWh1.672.51g/kWh2.193.7011-717#11(2)1-78FcyAyQdwy2004llll2-32-31-781-8g/kWh-0.41-0.69-0.4525g/kWh0.931.881.05g/kWh1.672.511.78g/kWh0.932.15g/kWh1.153.261.41g/kWh/0.26g/kWh1.141.141.14g/kWh0.181.360.33g/kWh5.5911.866.3720041-75.59g/kWh811.86g/kWh200320042-42-41-782003%4.804.672004%4.985.05%0.180.382003%5.065.092004%5.195.07%0.13-0.02%0.050