波士顿--中国网通：战略咨询报告完整版1

-1-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup--Confidential--DestroybyShredding--45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHICHINANETCOMBUSINESSPLANUPDATEDecember14,1999-Beijing-2-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup--Confidential--DestroybyShredding--45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHITODAY’SOBJECTIVESReviewtheoverallanalysisofregulation,competition,andmarketdevelopment•DiscussthespecificimplicationsforCNCstrategyReviewthespecificdraftbusinessmodelsforCNC•Howwemightattackthebusiness,carrier,andIDD/DLDmarkets•Whatkeytrade-offsweneedtomake•Whatarethekeysuccessfactorsandassumptions?Discusstheinitialeconomicsofthesebusinessmodels,andofCNCoverallDiscussthespecificnextstepsintwokeyareas:•HowtofinalizeandendorsetheoverallCNCbusinessmodel•Howtomoveforwardwiththerefinedfinancials,organizationdesign,andtheplanforimplementation-3-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup--Confidential--DestroybyShredding--45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHICONTENTKeystrategicprinciplesRegulatoryoverviewMarketoverviewCompetitionoverviewBusinessmodelsNextsteps-4-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup--Confidential--DestroybyShredding--45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIKEYCNCSTRATEGICPRINCIPLESTheobjectiveoftheseprinciplesistoprovidefurtherclarityinthedevelopmentandevaluationoftheCNCbusinessmodelThesewillberevisitedandrefinedastheprojectprogresses•OurdevelopmentofbusinessmodelswillseektobealignedwiththeprinciplesStrategicprinciplesandkeyassumptionswillbeconsideredinthefollowingaspectsCNCshareholdersBackbonebusinessLocalaccessbusinessInternationalgatewaybusinessRegulatorystrategyCompetitivestrategyMarketingstrategy-5-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup--Confidential--DestroybyShredding--45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHICNCSHAREHOLDERSPrinciples:•Leverageshareholders’concertedvisionincreatinganewgenerationIPbroadbandcommunicationinfrastructureandaprofitable,successfulcompany•Leverageshareholders’existingbackboneassets,localaccessassets,researchcapabilitiesandlocalgovernmentrelationshipstosecuretime-to-marketandcreatecompetitiveadvantage•Setamodelofanewtypeof“SOE”,asefficientasthebestoftheFIE/privatecompanies;beatshareholders’expectationsbydeliveringhighreturnAssumptions:•CAS:stronginterestinseeingCNCsuccessfulandprofitablequickly,standsreadyforfavorableregulatoryinfluenceandresearchsupport;wantsopportunitiesfornetworkingR&D•MORandSARFT:extensivebackboneandaccessassetsandROW-mainfocusonusingMORforrightofway,helpingthemparticipateintelecom-willnotuseSARFTlocalCATVinthenearterm,buttheyareakeyuserofthebackbone·LeverageCATV’scitybackbone-MORwillcontinuetofavorCNCoverUnicom,providedCNCmeetstheexpectationasaprofitcenterforMOR•ShanghaiMunicipalGov't:EagertomakeShanghaiasChina’stestgroundforbuildinghigh-techinfrastructure(e.g.theintegrationoftelecom,CATV,Internet)-inparticular,testingHFCtodeliverbroadbandinternet-oneissue:SPTandATTJV;howtohandle?-6-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup--Confidential--DestroybyShredding--45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIBACKBONEBUSINESSPrinciples:•Targetadvancedbackboneamong15keycitiesinEasternChina;startwith2coresfromshareholdersbutquicklybuildownnetwork•Usebackboneforavarietyofwholesaleandretailvoiceanddataservices•MaintaintheleadingedgeIP/packetnetwork,bothfortechnologicalsuperiorityandtofulfillshareholdermission•Maintainthebestcostposition,usingROWs,purchasingclout,righttechnology•Buildreservecapacity/conduittodeterothersAssumptions:•ThecostsofconstructionandROWwillbethemajorityofnewnetworkcosts-virtuallyallofthenetworkwilluseMORorSARFTrightofway•NetworkwillbeIPorpacketinnature•Deploymentplanwillkeepcostslow,buildoutquickly,andcreategoodposition-laylargenumberofconduitsinonetime-laterfill,lightup,andcolorfiberstrands-leaseoutconduit/fiber/bandwidthtomaximizereturn(utilization)-7-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup--Confidential--DestroybyShredding--45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHILOCALACCESSBUSINESSPrinciples:•Beveryfocusedinlocaldeployment,targetingprioritybusinessareasonly•Emphasizebroadbandtothecustomer,usingFTTBandLMDSwherelogical•Seekstronglocalmarketshare,especiallyinnewdataservicesgrowthareas•DifferentiatefromChinaTelecombysuperiorservices,quality,responsiveness-Buildstronglocalteamtoenablefastserviceresponse-Emphasize“endtoend”networkownershipandmanagementAssumptions:•SH,BJ,GZ,andSZbusinessdistrictsastargetsforthenearterm-Theseaccountforthevastmajorityofbusinesstelecomdemand-Needtosetspecificestimatesfortimingandsequenceofdeployment•AssumethatCNCwillhaveaccesstokeycityROW,suchassubwaysystems•Willneedspecificassumptionsabouttheeaseandcostofhookingupbuildings•AssumethatprimaryemphasiswillbeonFTTB,butthatLMDScanplayanimportantrole,especiallyininitialdeploymentandinsecondarycities•Willneedspecificassumptionsabouttimingofaddingsecondarycities-8-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup--Confidential--DestroybyShredding--45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIINTERNATIONALGATEWAYBUSINESSPrinciples:•CNCwillbeoneoffewplayerswithafullinternationallicense•VitaltoenableCNCtoprovideend-to-endservices,globaldataservices,andhigherm